Zorya Luhansk's recent form has been impressive, with a 2-game winning streak, including a 2-0 victory over Kolos Kovalivka. However, Kryvbas KR has shown resilience, bouncing back from a 1-4 defeat to Karpaty with a win in their last outing.
The model predicts a home win for Zorya Luhansk, with a 43% chance of victory, 30% chance of a draw, and 27% chance of an away win. The expected total goals is 2.3, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 14.3%.
Zorya Luhansk has been scoring 1.43 goals per game at home, conceding 1.29, while Kryvbas KR averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded away from home.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5 option, with a 79.7% probability, indicating a significant edge of 16%. This selection also has a 42.3% chance of winning. The model's suggested picks are the Under 3.5 option and the Home win, with the Away win and Draw options also available, each with a percentage probability of 27%, 30%, and 42.3% respectively.
A major upset unfolded in Ukraine's Premier League as Kryvbas KR secured a 1-3 away win over Zorya Luhansk, extending their run of mixed form. The actual result defied expectations, as the home team's recent woes, marked by a defeat in their last outing, failed to translate into a win. The model's selection, a Home win, proved incorrect, despite being the pre-match favourite with a 43% probability of success. The model's call was wrong. Meanwhile, the suggested picks yielded mixed results, with Under 3.5 goals narrowly missing the mark, given its 79.7% probability.
Zorya Luhansk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 0.87 | 1.53 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.25 | 1.12 | 1.38 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 2.00 | 0.80 | 1.80 | 0.20 | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
Kryvbas KR| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 1.50 | 1.57 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 2.25 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.38 | 1.31 | 1.44 | 1.22 | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 2.20 | 1.20 | 2.40 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Kryvbas KR goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 12% | 14% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 8.6% | 8.6% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Zorya Luhansk
Kryvbas KR
Zorya Luhansk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.8 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 22.0 | 20.4 | 23.7 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 12.0 | 10.0 | 14.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 19.5 | 19.0 | 20.0 |
| vs Similar (29) | 10.6 | 9.2 | 12.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 21.9 | 20.9 | 23.0 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 10.8 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 23.2 | 19.3 | 27.0 |
| % over line | 62% | 46% | 77% | 28% | 27% | 29% | 46% | 38% | 54% |
| % under line | 38% | 54% | 23% | 72% | 73% | 71% | 54% | 62% | 46% |
Kryvbas KR| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.4 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 24.5 | 23.8 | 25.2 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 10.3 | 9.0 | 13.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 22.0 | 24.5 | 17.0 |
| vs Similar (27) | 11.4 | 12.9 | 9.7 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 24.1 | 23.2 | 25.1 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 8.5 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 26.1 | 24.7 | 27.0 |
| % over line | 42% | 62% | 23% | 26% | 20% | 32% | 77% | 77% | 77% |
| % under line | 58% | 38% | 77% | 74% | 80% | 68% | 23% | 23% | 23% |
Zorya Luhansk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.38 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.10 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Kryvbas KR| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.63 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 0.86 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.50 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.94 | 0.44 | 1.11 | 0.33 | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.10 | 0.50 | 1.20 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Zorya Luhansk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.87 | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.50 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.81 | 0.56 | 0.88 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.90 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
Kryvbas KR| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.75 | 1.12 | 0.64 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.44 | 0.88 | 0.33 | 0.89 | 0.57 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.10 | 0.70 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 85.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 79.7% | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.48 | 1.48 | 1.45 | +15.8% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 11.5 corners | 75.5% | 1.36 | 1.39 | 1.33 | - | - | - | +8.7% | - |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 74.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 73.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 cards | 71.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 18/08/25 | H | 2-3 | |
| 20/04/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 20/10/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 09/12/23 | A | 2-2 | |
| 06/08/23 | H | 1-3 | |
| 08/04/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/10/22 | H | 2-2 |
Zorya Luhansk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 12/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-0 |
Kryvbas KR| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 12/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/05/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 5-6 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 0-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Karpaty | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 49% |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 2.8 | 75% | 25% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 186 | 115 | 19 | 52 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 68% |
| 3 | Polessya | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 4 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 2.0 | 75% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 48% |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 56% |
| 6 | Dynamo Kyiv | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 91 | 32 | 26 | 33 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 62% |
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 52% |
| 8 | Bukovyna | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Livyi Bereh | 4 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | +0 | 1.0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 58% |
| 10 | Veres Rivne | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.2 | 25% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 43% |
| 11 | Kryvbas KR | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 48% |
| 12 | Chornomorets | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 13 | LNZ Cherkasy | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 44% |
| 14 | Obolon'-Brovar | 4 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0.8 | 25% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 42% |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 16 | Kolos Kovalivka | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1.7 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 49% |