Defensive solidity dominates this encounter, with both sides averaging just over a goal per game in their recent outings. Zorya Luhansk, fresh from a win, has been scoring 1.12 goals and conceding 1.12 at home against similarly matched opposition. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv, after two straight defeats, has managed only 0.83 goals while keeping 0.67 at away venues against comparable teams. The model favours a home win, assigning a 34% chance, with draws and away victories each at 33%. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome at 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.9% chance. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%), Under 5.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.7%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.6%).
Results analysis
The upset came early as Metalist 1925 Kharkiv overturned Zorya Luhansk’s 0-3 loss, turning a home defeat into a decisive away victory. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was backed by a 34% chance, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections were largely correct: Under 7.5 (99.9%) hit, Under 6.5 (99.4%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%) hit, Under 5.5 (97.9%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (97.8%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (97.7%) hit, and Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.5%) hit. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and every pick was accounted for.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zorya Luhansk win✗ Miss
34.0%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.08
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
3.45
Dafabet
3.15
1xBet
3.12
Bet365
3.10
Betano
3.05
Draw✗ Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.19
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.36
Pinnacle
3.33
Dafabet
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv win✓ Hit
33.4%
Avg Implied 41.6% · @ 2.20
Edge
-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.32
William Hil
2.25
Pinnacle
2.23
Dafabet
2.23
Betano
2.22
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zorya Luhansk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.20
1.29
0.86
1.56
1.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.75
1.00
1.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.29
1.12
1.12
1.44
1.44
vs Weaker (9)
2.00
0.78
1.75
0.00
2.20
1.40
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.67
1.12
0.62
1.14
0.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.79
0.88
0.88
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
2.25
0.12
2.25
0.00
2.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Zorya Luhansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.4%
@ 1.36-4.7%
Under 1.5
36.6%
@ 2.91+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
3.00
1xBet
2.92
10Bet
2.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.1%
@ 2.13-8.4%
Under 2.5
64.9%
@ 1.64+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.15
Unibet
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Betfair
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Betfair
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.60
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.2%
@ 3.80-8.2%
Under 3.5
83.8%
@ 1.22+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
1xBet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.45
Under
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.6%
@ 1.87-5.6%
No
56.4%
@ 1.81+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.90
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Betfair
1.85
No
Betfair
1.85
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%@ 5.69+8.0%
0-0
13.6%@ 7.90+8.7%
1-0
11.6%@ 8.09+6.8%
0-1
11.4%@ 6.42+5.4%
2-1
7.1%@ 10.27+3.3%
1-2
7.1%@ 8.25+2.3%
2-0
6.8%@ 13.82+4.0%
0-2
6.7%@ 9.36+2.5%
Zorya Luhansk goals ↓
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
11%
6.7%
2.3%
0.6%
1
12%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.6%
2
6.8%
7.1%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
3
2.4%
2.5%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zorya Luhansk goals (down), columns = Metalist 1925 Kharkiv goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.40
Livyi Bereh
2.00
LNZ Cherkasy
2.00
Polessya
1.97
Dynamo Kyiv
1.90
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.70
Kolos Kovalivka
1.63
Kryvbas KR
1.60
Zorya Luhansk
1.53
Karpaty
1.37
Chornomorets
1.36
Bukovyna
1.29
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.07
Veres Rivne
1.03
Obolon'-Brovar
0.97
Kudrivka
0.94
Zorya Luhansk is 0.17 points worse than Metalist 1925 Kharkiv in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.70).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.37
Dynamo Kyiv
2.20
Kryvbas KR
1.77
Polessya
1.70
Zorya Luhansk
1.40
Karpaty
1.33
LNZ Cherkasy
1.30
Chornomorets
1.23
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.20
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.20
Bukovyna
1.17
Kudrivka
1.06
Kolos Kovalivka
1.00
Livyi Bereh
1.00
Veres Rivne
0.87
Obolon'-Brovar
0.86
Zorya Luhansk is 0.20 goals better than Metalist 1925 Kharkiv in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livyi Bereh
0.50
LNZ Cherkasy
0.57
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.63
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.70
Polessya
0.70
Kolos Kovalivka
0.83
Karpaty
1.03
Zorya Luhansk
1.20
Dynamo Kyiv
1.20
Chornomorets
1.24
Bukovyna
1.30
Veres Rivne
1.33
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.50
Kryvbas KR
1.53
Kudrivka
1.56
Obolon'-Brovar
1.69
Zorya Luhansk is 0.57 goals worse than Metalist 1925 Kharkiv in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 0.63).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shakhtar Donetsk
68%
Dynamo Kyiv
62%
Livyi Bereh
58%
Polessya
57%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
56%
Zorya Luhansk
52%
Kolos Kovalivka
49%
Kudrivka
49%
Karpaty
49%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
48%
Kryvbas KR
48%
LNZ Cherkasy
44%
Veres Rivne
43%
Obolon'-Brovar
42%
Zorya Luhansk is 4.7 percentage points worse than Metalist 1925 Kharkiv in terms of average possession (52% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Zorya Luhansk
For 5.2 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.7 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
For 7.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 11.6 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Zorya Luhansk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
9.4
12.2
2.1
2.2
2.1
22.0
20.4
23.7
vs Stronger (6)
12.0
10.0
14.0
1.7
2.0
1.3
19.5
19.0
20.0
vs Similar (30)
10.6
9.2
12.0
2.5
2.5
2.5
21.9
20.9
23.0
vs Weaker (14)
10.8
9.7
12.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
23.2
19.3
27.0
% over line
62%
46%
77%
28%
27%
29%
46%
38%
54%
% under line
38%
54%
23%
72%
73%
71%
54%
62%
46%
This opponent (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
12.7
10.3
1.2
1.1
1.4
22.1
22.4
21.9
vs Stronger (8)
9.3
-
9.3
2.0
0.0
4.0
18.0
-
18.0
vs Similar (23)
12.3
14.0
10.8
1.7
2.1
1.4
23.5
23.0
23.8
vs Weaker (19)
9.7
9.5
10.0
0.3
0.4
0.2
21.3
21.0
22.0
% over line
65%
86%
50%
14%
15%
12%
53%
57%
50%
% under line
35%
14%
50%
86%
85%
88%
47%
43%
50%
This opponent (Zorya Luhansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Zorya Luhansk
10.5
Kryvbas KR
10.0
Dynamo Kyiv
9.9
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
9.8
Veres Rivne
9.8
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
9.7
Polessya
9.5
Kudrivka
9.4
Livyi Bereh
9.2
Obolon'-Brovar
9.1
LNZ Cherkasy
9.1
Shakhtar Donetsk
8.9
Chornomorets
8.8
Kolos Kovalivka
8.6
Karpaty
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Karpaty
4.9
Obolon'-Brovar
4.6
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
4.6
LNZ Cherkasy
4.5
Veres Rivne
4.4
Chornomorets
4.4
Livyi Bereh
4.4
Polessya
4.2
Zorya Luhansk
4.1
Dynamo Kyiv
4.0
Kolos Kovalivka
3.9
Kudrivka
3.8
Shakhtar Donetsk
3.8
Kryvbas KR
3.6
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Obolon'-Brovar
26.9
Livyi Bereh
26.2
Kudrivka
25.1
Kryvbas KR
24.6
Karpaty
24.2
Kolos Kovalivka
24.0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
23.7
LNZ Cherkasy
23.0
Veres Rivne
22.8
Chornomorets
22.4
Zorya Luhansk
22.0
Dynamo Kyiv
21.3
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
21.2
Polessya
20.6
Shakhtar Donetsk
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.7%
@ 2.01+2.4%
Under 9.5
51.3%
@ 1.73-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.03
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Under
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
44.5%
Under 3.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
48.9%
Under 21.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zorya Luhansk or Draw✗ Miss
66.6%
Avg Implied 57.9% · @ 1.60
Edge
+8.7%
34%
33%
33%
covers Zorya Luhansk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.69
Betano
1.62
William Hil
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Zorya Luhansk or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv✓ Hit
67.4%
Avg Implied 71.6% · @ 1.29
Edge
-4.3%
34%
33%
33%
covers Zorya Luhansk + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Draw or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv✓ Hit
66.0%
Avg Implied 70.5% · @ 1.31
Edge
-4.4%
34%
33%
33%
covers Draw + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Betfair
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zorya Luhansk over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
65.2%
@ 1.42+0.2%
Under
34.8%
@ 2.64-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
1xBet
1.43
10Bet
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
1xBet
2.68
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Zorya Luhansk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.5%
@ 3.04-1.9%
Under
71.5%
@ 1.33+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.00
1xBet
2.98
10Bet
2.95
Under
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Zorya Luhansk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.1%
@ 7.47-3.4%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.07+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
1xBet
6.90
Under
1xBet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Zorya Luhansk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 13.00-4.9%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Under
Bet365
1.01
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.8%
@ 1.28-7.7%
Under
35.2%
@ 3.37+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.29
10Bet
3.20
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
28.1%
@ 2.38-10.8%
Under
71.9%
@ 1.51+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
1xBet
2.41
Betfair
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Unibet
2.35
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
Betfair
1.53
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
8.9%
@ 5.23-8.9%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.13+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.20
Bet365
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 10.00-7.2%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.03+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Under
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zorya Luhansk, so a minus line means Zorya Luhansk give that many goals of a start and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv receive them. At -1, Zorya Luhansk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zorya Luhansk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.33
0.44
0.31
0.43
0.36
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
0.62
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.29
0.38
0.25
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.12
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Zorya Luhansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.9%
@ 1.43+1.4%
Under 0.5
34.1%
@ 2.60-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.75
10Bet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.64
Bet365
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.6%
@ 3.10-0.4%
Under 1.5
70.4%
@ 1.33+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
3.12
Pinnacle
3.06
William Hil
3.00
Under
William Hil
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
1xBet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.7%
@ 7.90-2.2%
Under 2.5
90.3%
@ 1.06+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
8.50
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.60
Bet365
7.50
Under
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zorya Luhansk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.0%
@ 2.41+3.6%
Under
58.0%
@ 1.51-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Zorya Luhansk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 9.00-0.2%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.03+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
Under
1xBet
1.03
Zorya Luhansk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.8%
@ 2.06-5.1%
Under
60.2%
@ 1.68+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
1xBet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 7.00-3.2%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.06+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Under
1xBet
1.06
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zorya Luhansk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.79
0.57
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.65
0.75
0.75
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.56
0.75
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.33
0.69
0.31
0.71
0.36
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.38
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.62
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Zorya Luhansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.6%
@ 1.29+2.2%
Under 0.5
25.4%
@ 3.38-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.39
William Hil
3.25
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.2%
@ 2.31-2.0%
Under 1.5
61.8%
@ 1.55+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.38
1xBet
2.35
William Hil
2.30
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
10Bet
1.53
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.9%
@ 5.40-3.5%
Under 2.5
86.1%
@ 1.13+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.19
Under
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
William Hil
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zorya Luhansk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.5%
@ 1.96+1.3%
Under
51.5%
@ 1.75-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.96
Under
1xBet
1.75
Zorya Luhansk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 5.90-1.1%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.08+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.90
Under
1xBet
1.08
Zorya Luhansk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.7%
@ 1.77-7.6%
Under
55.3%
@ 1.94+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.77
Under
1xBet
1.94
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
12.7%
@ 4.80-6.4%
Under
87.3%
@ 1.13+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
Under
1xBet
1.13
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.9%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-
-
+8.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
90.9%
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.06
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.3%
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.5%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.14
-
-
-
+8.8%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
86.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
86.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
William Hil
1.12
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.6%
1.29
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.5%
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-
-
-
-
-1.1%
-
Under 4.5 cards
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.9%
1.51
Pinnacle
1.54
Betfair
1.53
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.53
+10.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
71.5%
1.33
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.30
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.4%
1.33
William Hil
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
1xBet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+0.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Zorya Luhansk · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Roman Vantukh36%
Pylyp Budkivskyi36%
Nemanja Anđušić27%
Igor Perduta20%
Petar Mićin12%
Artem Slesar12%
Roman Salenko11%
Andrija Janjić9%
Bohdan Kushnirenko8%
Reis Rodriguez Leovigildo Junior7%
Anderson Jordan6%
Jakov Bašić0%
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk0%
Mykyta Turbaievskyi0%
Dejan Popara0%
Ruan Oliveira0%
Gabriel Eskinja0%
Domagoj Jelavić0%
Igor Gorbach0%
Oleksandr Saputin0%
Navin Malysh0%
Andrii Matkevych0%
Sallieu Bah0%
Fedir Zadorozhyi0%
Reynaldiño Verley0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Andrija Janjić36%
Bohdan Kushnirenko33%
Sallieu Bah33%
Dejan Popara23%
Jakov Bašić22%
Pylyp Budkivskyi21%
Gabriel Eskinja14%
Reis Rodriguez Leovigildo Junior13%
Anderson Jordan12%
Igor Perduta10%
Roman Vantukh9%
Nemanja Anđušić9%
Artem Slesar6%
Petar Mićin0%
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk0%
Mykyta Turbaievskyi0%
Ruan Oliveira0%
Domagoj Jelavić0%
Roman Salenko0%
Igor Gorbach0%
Oleksandr Saputin0%
Navin Malysh0%
Andrii Matkevych0%
Fedir Zadorozhyi0%
Reynaldiño Verley0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Reis Rodriguez Leovigildo Junior20%
Dejan Popara15%
Gabriel Eskinja14%
Igor Gorbach12%
Jakov Bašić11%
Roman Vantukh9%
Nemanja Anđušić9%
Pylyp Budkivskyi7%
Anderson Jordan6%
Artem Slesar6%
Igor Perduta0%
Petar Mićin0%
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk0%
Bohdan Kushnirenko0%
Mykyta Turbaievskyi0%
Ruan Oliveira0%
Domagoj Jelavić0%
Roman Salenko0%
Oleksandr Saputin0%
Andrija Janjić0%
Navin Malysh0%
Andrii Matkevych0%
Sallieu Bah0%
Fedir Zadorozhyi0%
Reynaldiño Verley0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pylyp Budkivskyi29%
Artem Slesar25%
Domagoj Jelavić20%
Nemanja Anđušić18%
Bohdan Kushnirenko17%
Jakov Bašić11%
Igor Perduta0%
Petar Mićin0%
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk0%
Roman Vantukh0%
Anderson Jordan0%
Reis Rodriguez Leovigildo Junior0%
Mykyta Turbaievskyi0%
Dejan Popara0%
Ruan Oliveira0%
Gabriel Eskinja0%
Roman Salenko0%
Igor Gorbach0%
Oleksandr Saputin0%
Andrija Janjić0%
Navin Malysh0%
Andrii Matkevych0%
Sallieu Bah0%
Fedir Zadorozhyi0%
Reynaldiño Verley0%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Peter Itodo38%
Cauan Baptistella25%
Baton Zabergja15%
Christian Mba15%
Vyacheslav Churko11%
Ivan Lytvynenko8%
Ermir Rashica7%
Denys Antyukh6%
Artem Shabanov0%
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev0%
Igor Kogut0%
Ivan Kalyuzhnyi0%
Danylo Varakuta0%
Oleksandr Martinyuk0%
Ari Moura0%
Dmytro Kapinus0%
Yevhen Pavliuk0%
Volodymyr Salyuk0%
Ilya Krupskyi0%
Nicolas Arevalo0%
Sebastian Castillo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ivan Kalyuzhnyi38%
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev27%
Cauan Baptistella25%
Yevhen Pavliuk19%
Ilya Krupskyi18%
Volodymyr Salyuk17%
Igor Kogut14%
Artem Shabanov13%
Vyacheslav Churko11%
Oleksandr Martinyuk10%
Ivan Lytvynenko8%
Baton Zabergja8%
Christian Mba8%
Peter Itodo8%
Ermir Rashica7%
Denys Antyukh6%
Danylo Varakuta6%
Ari Moura0%
Dmytro Kapinus0%
Nicolas Arevalo0%
Sebastian Castillo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sebastian Castillo20%
Ari Moura17%
Baton Zabergja8%
Igor Kogut7%
Ivan Kalyuzhnyi6%
Denys Antyukh6%
Ilya Krupskyi6%
Artem Shabanov0%
Vyacheslav Churko0%
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev0%
Ivan Lytvynenko0%
Danylo Varakuta0%
Oleksandr Martinyuk0%
Dmytro Kapinus0%
Yevhen Pavliuk0%
Volodymyr Salyuk0%
Nicolas Arevalo0%
Ermir Rashica0%
Christian Mba0%
Peter Itodo0%
Cauan Baptistella0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Peter Itodo46%
Cauan Baptistella25%
Sebastian Castillo20%
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev9%
Baton Zabergja8%
Denys Antyukh6%
Artem Shabanov0%
Vyacheslav Churko0%
Igor Kogut0%
Ivan Lytvynenko0%
Ivan Kalyuzhnyi0%
Danylo Varakuta0%
Oleksandr Martinyuk0%
Ari Moura0%
Dmytro Kapinus0%
Yevhen Pavliuk0%
Volodymyr Salyuk0%
Ilya Krupskyi0%
Nicolas Arevalo0%
Ermir Rashica0%
Christian Mba0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (33)
€186m
DK (37)
€91m
POL (32)
€34m
M1K (26)
€28m
LC (25)
€20m
KAR (28)
€13m
KK (27)
€13m
ZL (27)
€11m
KK (19)
€11m
BUK (25)
€9m
VR (21)
€7m
OBO (28)
€7m
ED (23)
€6m
CHO (21)
€5m
KUD (24)
€5m
LB (25)
€5m
Zorya Luhansk's squad is €17m less valuable than Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's (€11m vs €28m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (16)
€115m
DK (13)
€32m
POL (9)
€12m
M1K (10)
€10m
LC (9)
€8m
KK (10)
€5m
KAR (8)
€4m
BUK (10)
€4m
ZL (11)
€3m
KK (7)
€3m
VR (9)
€3m
OBO (9)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
KUD (8)
€2m
ED (6)
€1m
Zorya Luhansk's attack is €7m less valuable than Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's (€3m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DK (8)
€26m
SD (4)
€19m
POL (9)
€8m
M1K (6)
€7m
LC (5)
€5m
KK (4)
€3m
ZL (5)
€3m
KAR (5)
€2m
KK (5)
€2m
BUK (5)
€2m
ED (6)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
OBO (5)
€1m
KUD (6)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
LB (6)
€1m
Zorya Luhansk's midfield is €5m less valuable than Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's (€3m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (13)
€52m
DK (16)
€33m
POL (14)
€14m
M1K (10)
€11m
LC (11)
€7m
KAR (15)
€7m
KK (7)
€6m
ZL (11)
€6m
KK (13)
€5m
VR (8)
€4m
BUK (10)
€3m
ED (11)
€3m
OBO (14)
€3m
KUD (10)
€3m
LB (12)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
Zorya Luhansk's defence is €6m less valuable than Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's (€6m vs €11m).
Ukraine: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Karpaty
Shakhtar Donetsk
Polessya
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Dynamo Kyiv
Bukovyna
Veres Rivne
Kryvbas KR
LNZ Cherkasy
Livyi Bereh
Chornomorets
Obolon'-Brovar
Kudrivka
Kolos Kovalivka