The contest between 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home victory sits at 35 %, a draw at 26 %, and the away side at 39 %. The expected total of goals is 3.0, yet the most probable total is two goals, a 23 % chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.2 % probability. Magdeburg, playing at home against a similarly-ranked opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. Kiel, on the road, averages 1.36 scored and 1.93 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98 %, edge 2 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.4 %, edge 5 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.7 %, edge 6 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.6 %, edge 6 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.0 %, edge 6 %), Under 6.5 (94.8 %, edge 1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (93.5 %, edge 6 %), and Over 2.5 cards (89.0 %). Both sides have recently come off a win and a draw respectively, adding to the intrigue of this evenly balanced fixture.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Holstein Kiel, was expected to win with a 39% probability, but the match ended 2-0 to 1. FC Magdeburg, extending their two-game winning run. The model’s call was wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 98%; Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.8%; Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.0%; Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.8%; Under 6.5 hit at 94.8%; Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 94.6%; Home under 3.5 goals hit at 93.5%; and Over 2.5 cards hit at 88.9%. The final score of 2-0 confirms the home side’s victory and the model’s predictions on total goals and cards all proved accurate.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg win✓ Hit
34.4%
Avg Implied 44.1% · @ 2.12
Edge
-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
SBO
2.20
Betfair
2.15
Betano
2.15
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.69
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.84
Marathonbet
3.82
1xBet
3.82
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Holstein Kiel win✗ Miss
39.3%
Avg Implied 30.4% · @ 3.08
Edge
+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.28
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.25
William Hil
3.10
Unibet
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.67
1.33
1.73
1.93
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.59
1.72
1.33
1.73
1.86
1.71
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.53
1.33
1.13
1.33
1.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.39
1.57
1.43
1.21
1.36
1.93
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Magdeburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.8%
@ 1.15+0.5%
Under 1.5
18.2%
@ 4.99-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.50
Pinnacle
5.47
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.5%
@ 1.53-2.6%
Under 2.5
41.5%
@ 2.41+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
Betano
2.42
10Bet
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.1%
@ 2.32-4.4%
Under 3.5
63.9%
@ 1.58+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.42
Betano
2.42
Betfair
2.38
Pinnacle
2.36
10Bet
2.35
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
BetVictor
1.58
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.0%
@ 1.46-1.2%
No
38.0%
@ 2.52+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Betfair
1.47
Betano
1.47
No
Betfair
2.63
1xBet
2.58
Betano
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
Marathonbet
2.53
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%@ 7.09+5.8%
1-2
8.7%@ 10.14+4.3%
2-1
8.1%@ 8.31+2.7%
0-1
6.4%@ 12.38+2.8%
2-2
6.4%@ 10.43+2.1%
0-2
5.9%@ 17.35+3.4%
1-0
5.9%@ 10.21+1.5%
0-0
5.9%@ 15.33+3.0%
1. FC Magdeburg goals ↓
Holstein Kiel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
6.4%
5.9%
3.1%
1.2%
1
5.9%
12%
8.7%
4.6%
1.8%
2
5.1%
8.1%
6.4%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.5%
3.9%
3.1%
1.6%
0.6%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = 1. FC Magdeburg goals (down), columns = Holstein Kiel goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
VfL Wolfsburg
2.14
Hannover 96
1.76
1. FC Heidenheim
1.64
FC St. Pauli
1.58
SV Darmstadt 98
1.53
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
Hertha BSC
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.35
VfL Bochum
1.29
Karlsruher SC
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.21
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
Arminia Bielefeld
1.15
1. FC Magdeburg
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.11
Energie Cottbus
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09
VfL Osnabrück
1.07
1. FC Magdeburg is 0.06 points worse than Holstein Kiel in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
VfL Wolfsburg
2.18
Hannover 96
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.67
FC St. Pauli
1.62
Dynamo Dresden
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.56
Karlsruher SC
1.56
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
1. FC Magdeburg
1.53
VfL Bochum
1.44
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.42
Hertha BSC
1.38
1. FC Nürnberg
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.29
Energie Cottbus
1.12
VfL Osnabrück
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.06
1. FC Magdeburg is 0.24 goals better than Holstein Kiel in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
VfL Wolfsburg
0.93
1. FC Heidenheim
1.21
FC St. Pauli
1.26
Hannover 96
1.29
Hertha BSC
1.29
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
1. FC Nürnberg
1.32
VfL Bochum
1.38
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.41
Arminia Bielefeld
1.50
Dynamo Dresden
1.56
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.59
1. FC Magdeburg
1.71
Energie Cottbus
1.82
VfL Osnabrück
1.87
Karlsruher SC
1.88
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.92
1. FC Magdeburg is 0.29 goals worse than Holstein Kiel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hannover 96
56%
1. FC Magdeburg
54%
Arminia Bielefeld
52%
Holstein Kiel
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
51%
Dynamo Dresden
50%
1. FC Nürnberg
49%
Hertha BSC
49%
Karlsruher SC
48%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
48%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
48%
VfL Bochum
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
44%
1. FC Magdeburg is 2.4 percentage points better than Holstein Kiel in terms of average possession (54% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg
For 5.1 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.7 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Holstein Kiel
For 5.7 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 12.2 · Total 26.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1. FC Magdeburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.4
10.6
4.7
5.0
4.4
23.7
22.8
24.6
vs Stronger (1)
6.0
6.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
14.0
14.0
-
vs Similar (45)
10.0
9.5
10.6
4.8
5.1
4.4
23.8
23.0
24.6
vs Weaker (4)
10.8
11.0
10.5
3.8
4.0
3.5
24.8
25.0
24.5
% over line
52%
44%
60%
74%
84%
64%
68%
52%
84%
% under line
48%
56%
40%
26%
16%
36%
32%
48%
16%
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.4
9.9
5.3
4.8
5.8
26.4
26.0
26.8
vs Stronger (6)
10.2
9.0
11.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
19.7
20.0
19.3
vs Similar (42)
10.0
10.4
9.6
5.5
5.0
6.0
27.1
26.8
27.5
vs Weaker (2)
12.5
14.0
11.0
7.5
6.0
9.0
31.5
27.0
36.0
% over line
54%
48%
60%
80%
80%
80%
82%
80%
84%
% under line
46%
52%
40%
20%
20%
20%
18%
20%
16%
This opponent (1. FC Magdeburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Energie Cottbus
13.7
VfL Wolfsburg
11.7
VfL Osnabrück
10.9
Dynamo Dresden
10.7
VfL Bochum
10.5
SV Darmstadt 98
10.5
Hannover 96
10.5
Hertha BSC
10.4
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.3
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.2
Holstein Kiel
10.1
1. FC Magdeburg
10.0
Arminia Bielefeld
9.9
FC St. Pauli
9.6
1. FC Nürnberg
9.6
Karlsruher SC
9.4
1. FC Heidenheim
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Holstein Kiel
5.3
Eintracht Braunschweig
5.1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
5.0
1. FC Nürnberg
4.9
VfL Bochum
4.9
Hannover 96
4.8
Hertha BSC
4.8
1. FC Magdeburg
4.7
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.6
VfL Osnabrück
4.6
Karlsruher SC
4.6
Dynamo Dresden
4.2
Arminia Bielefeld
4.2
SV Darmstadt 98
4.1
1. FC Heidenheim
3.7
FC St. Pauli
3.7
VfL Wolfsburg
3.6
Energie Cottbus
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Holstein Kiel
26.4
Hannover 96
26.3
Energie Cottbus
26.3
Arminia Bielefeld
25.6
1. FC Kaiserslautern
25.5
VfL Osnabrück
25.2
1. FC Nürnberg
24.9
Eintracht Braunschweig
24.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
24.3
Hertha BSC
24.1
SV Darmstadt 98
23.8
1. FC Magdeburg
23.7
Karlsruher SC
23.2
Dynamo Dresden
23.1
VfL Bochum
23.0
VfL Wolfsburg
20.7
1. FC Heidenheim
20.5
FC St. Pauli
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.1%
@ 1.62-4.1%
Under 9.5
46.9%
@ 2.16+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Under
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.21
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.14
Unibet
2.12
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.8%
Under 3.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
71.0%
Under 21.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
1. FC Magdeburg or Draw✓ Hit
55.7%
Avg Implied 69.2% · @ 1.35
Edge
-13.5%
34%
26%
39%
covers 1. FC Magdeburg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.36
1. FC Magdeburg or Holstein Kiel✓ Hit
75.3%
Avg Implied 75.0% · @ 1.25
Edge
+0.4%
34%
26%
39%
covers 1. FC Magdeburg + Holstein Kiel
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Draw or Holstein Kiel✗ Miss
69.0%
Avg Implied 55.8% · @ 1.68
Edge
+13.2%
34%
26%
39%
covers Draw + Holstein Kiel
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
BetVictor
1.67
Betfair
1.67
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
1. FC Magdeburg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.7%
@ 1.15-3.7%
Under
22.3%
@ 4.99+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
Under
Pinnacle
5.67
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.20
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
1. FC Magdeburg over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.2%
@ 1.77-8.6%
Under
55.8%
@ 1.98+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
BetVictor
2.00
Betfair
2.00
1. FC Magdeburg over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.1%
@ 3.44-7.9%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.27+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
1. FC Magdeburg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 7.63-5.6%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.06+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.20
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
83.7%
@ 1.23+8.6%
Under
16.3%
@ 3.72-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
3.98
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
54.2%
@ 2.19+11.5%
Under
45.8%
@ 1.63-11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Under
Betfair
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.63
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
27.3%
@ 4.84+8.1%
Under
72.7%
@ 1.15-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
5.35
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.95
BetVictor
4.80
Under
Betfair
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Holstein Kiel over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 10.81+2.4%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.03-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to 1. FC Magdeburg, so a minus line means 1. FC Magdeburg give that many goals of a start and Holstein Kiel receive them. At -1, 1. FC Magdeburg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal 1. FC Magdeburg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (1. FC Magdeburg)Actual: Draw
1. FC Magdeburg -2
5.6%
@ 7.82-5.9%
Draw -2
9.3%
@ 6.07-5.6%
Holstein Kiel +2
85.1%
@ 1.23+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Marathonbet
7.00
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Away
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Handicap -1 (1. FC Magdeburg)Actual: 1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg -1
14.9%
@ 3.68-9.3%
Draw -1
16.1%
@ 4.03-6.0%
Holstein Kiel +1
69.0%
@ 1.66+15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Away
Marathonbet
1.71
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Handicap +1 (1. FC Magdeburg)Actual: 1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg +1
55.7%
@ 1.36-10.3%
Draw +1
19.7%
@ 4.82+1.1%
Holstein Kiel -1
24.6%
@ 5.80+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.85
Unibet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
Unibet
5.75
10Bet
5.75
Handicap +2 (1. FC Magdeburg)Actual: 1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg +2
75.4%
@ 1.11-7.9%
Draw +2
13.7%
@ 9.00+3.4%
Holstein Kiel -2
10.9%
@ 14.50+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
1. FC Magdeburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.47
0.87
1.07
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.72
0.83
0.47
0.87
1.00
0.79
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.53
0.60
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.82
0.57
0.64
0.64
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Magdeburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
72.8%
@ 1.26-1.1%
Under 0.5
27.2%
@ 3.56+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
William Hil
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
10Bet
3.55
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.4%
@ 2.24-5.2%
Under 1.5
63.6%
@ 1.60+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Pinnacle
2.33
Superbet
2.27
Bet365
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.4%
@ 5.10-5.9%
Under 2.5
87.6%
@ 1.14+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.20
Superbet
5.10
Betano
5.10
William Hil
5.00
Under
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
1. FC Magdeburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
50.7%
@ 1.71-3.6%
Under
49.3%
@ 2.04+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.75
Superbet
1.74
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.16
1xBet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Unibet
2.02
1. FC Magdeburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.2%
@ 4.50-4.4%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.17+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.50
1xBet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
1. FC Magdeburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 12.08-4.8%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.5%
@ 1.98+0.5%
Under
52.5%
@ 1.76-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.05
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Unibet
1.95
Under
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 5.85-4.0%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.10+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
Betano
5.90
1xBet
5.90
Superbet
5.75
10Bet
5.50
Under
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 16.67-3.6%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
1. FC Magdeburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.86
0.90
0.87
0.87
0.86
0.93
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.80
0.53
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.75
0.86
0.57
0.71
0.93
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Magdeburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.3%
@ 1.15-0.8%
Under 0.5
19.7%
@ 4.93+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.12
Under
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.90
Superbet
4.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
47.5%
@ 1.75-5.8%
Under 1.5
52.5%
@ 2.00+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.97
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
24.5%
@ 3.31-3.7%
Under 2.5
75.5%
@ 1.30+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.45
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.22
Marathonbet
3.22
Under
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
1. FC Magdeburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.6%
@ 1.50-6.2%
Under
44.4%
@ 2.43+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.47
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.35
1. FC Magdeburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
18.6%
@ 3.32-9.2%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.28+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.26
Betano
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
1. FC Magdeburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 8.47-5.6%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.04+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.20
1xBet
8.80
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
55.1%
@ 1.67-0.3%
Under
44.9%
@ 2.08+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.69
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Under
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.7%
@ 4.32-4.7%
Under
83.3%
@ 1.18+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 10.83-4.5%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.03+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.8%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
88.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.10
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.14
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+11.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.8%
1.17
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
83.7%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.22
+8.6%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.3%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.8%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.28
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
+9.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
80.9%
1.27
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.3%
1.15
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.12
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.7%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
76.0%
1.22
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.5%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.28
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
75.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
-
-
-
-7.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.3%
1.25
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Betfair
1.25
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.8%
1.26
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-1.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
72.7%
1.15
Betfair
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
-8.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.7%
1.44
Superbet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
+7.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
1. FC Magdeburg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mateusz Żukowski67%
Emmanuel Iyoha33%
Alexander Nollenberger33%
Luka Hyryläinen33%
Dominik Reimann0%
Barış Atik0%
Tobias Müller0%
Richmond Tachie0%
Falko Michel0%
Anselmo Garcia McNulty0%
Pierre Nadjombe0%
Magnus Baars0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pierre Nadjombe67%
Barış Atik33%
Tobias Müller33%
Mateusz Żukowski33%
Alexander Nollenberger33%
Falko Michel33%
Anselmo Garcia McNulty33%
Luka Hyryläinen33%
Dominik Reimann0%
Emmanuel Iyoha0%
Richmond Tachie0%
Magnus Baars0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Barış Atik100%
Tobias Müller33%
Alexander Nollenberger33%
Luka Hyryläinen33%
Dominik Reimann0%
Emmanuel Iyoha0%
Mateusz Żukowski0%
Richmond Tachie0%
Falko Michel0%
Anselmo Garcia McNulty0%
Pierre Nadjombe0%
Magnus Baars0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mateusz Żukowski100%
Emmanuel Iyoha33%
Alexander Nollenberger33%
Falko Michel33%
Dominik Reimann0%
Barış Atik0%
Tobias Müller0%
Richmond Tachie0%
Anselmo Garcia McNulty0%
Pierre Nadjombe0%
Luka Hyryläinen0%
Magnus Baars0%
Holstein Kiel
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi50%
Jonas Therkelsen25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kasper Davidsen75%
Ivan Nekić50%
Jonas Therkelsen50%
Hiroki Sekine50%
Timon Weiner33%
Leon Parduzi33%
Jonas Meffert25%
Guillermo Balzi25%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Phil Harres0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Phil Harres50%
Adrián Kaprálik50%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Guillermo Balzi0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (33)
€154m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
1FK (26)
€28m
HB (24)
€25m
SD9 (28)
€24m
1FM (26)
€21m
EB (27)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
EC (26)
€11m
VO (25)
€10m
1. FC Magdeburg's squad is €13m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€21m vs €34m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (10)
€56m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FK (9)
€12m
1FM (9)
€10m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
HB (8)
€8m
EB (8)
€7m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
VO (9)
€5m
EC (10)
€4m
SGF (6)
€4m
1. FC Magdeburg's attack is €1m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€10m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (8)
€32m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
1FK (6)
€5m
EB (7)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
1FM (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
HB (6)
€3m
VO (7)
€3m
EC (4)
€2m
1. FC Magdeburg's midfield is €3m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€4m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (15)
€66m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
HB (10)
€13m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
1FK (11)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
EB (12)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
1FM (13)
€7m
EC (12)
€5m
VO (9)
€3m
1. FC Magdeburg's defence is €8m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€7m vs €16m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
1. FC Nürnberg
Hertha BSC
VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Kaiserslautern
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Karlsruher SC
Eintracht Braunschweig
Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum
Energie Cottbus
Hannover 96
VfL Osnabrück
Dynamo Dresden
FC St. Pauli
SV Darmstadt 98