This opponent (Aarhus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.50
1.33
0.33
1.33
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Horsens) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.0%
Under 2.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-2
8.8%
0-1
8.7%
0-0
8.1%
2-1 ✓
7.6%
1-0
7.3%
0-2
7.1%
2-2
5.5%
AC Horsens goals ↓
Aarhus goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
8.7%
7.1%
3.4%
1.2%
1
7.3%
13%
8.8%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.3%
7.6%
5.5%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.2%
3.1%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AC Horsens goals (down), columns = Aarhus goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Copenhagen
1.84
FC Nordsjaelland
1.72
FC Midtjylland
1.64
Aarhus
1.59
Viborg
1.55
Odense
1.44
Brondby
1.38
Silkeborg
1.28
Randers FC
1.28
Lyngby
0.88
AC Horsens
0.88
Aalborg
0.84
AC Horsens is 0.72 points worse than Aarhus in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Copenhagen
1.91
FC Midtjylland
1.70
FC Nordsjaelland
1.56
Brondby
1.50
Odense
1.47
Silkeborg
1.38
Viborg
1.33
Aarhus
1.31
Randers FC
1.25
Aalborg
1.06
AC Horsens
1.03
Lyngby
0.94
AC Horsens is 0.28 goals worse than Aarhus in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Aarhus
0.97
Viborg
1.09
FC Nordsjaelland
1.09
FC Copenhagen
1.09
FC Midtjylland
1.18
Aalborg
1.41
Randers FC
1.47
Silkeborg
1.53
Lyngby
1.53
Brondby
1.62
Odense
1.66
AC Horsens
1.81
AC Horsens is 0.84 goals worse than Aarhus in terms of goals conceded per game (1.81 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Silkeborg
56%
FC Copenhagen
56%
FC Nordsjaelland
54%
Brondby
51%
Odense
50%
FC Midtjylland
50%
Randers FC
49%
Viborg
49%
Aalborg
49%
Aarhus
48%
Lyngby
45%
AC Horsens
42%
AC Horsens is 5.9 percentage points worse than Aarhus in terms of average possession (42% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AC Horsens
For 3.7 · Against 7.7 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 8.3 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aarhus
For 4.8 · Against 6.7 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 10.5 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AC Horsens
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (6)
11.3
11.0
11.5
4.3
5.5
3.8
20.0
20.5
19.8
vs Stronger (2)
12.0
12.0
12.0
3.5
4.0
3.0
19.0
19.0
19.0
vs Similar (4)
11.0
10.0
11.3
4.8
7.0
4.0
20.5
22.0
20.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
83%
100%
75%
67%
100%
50%
50%
50%
50%
% under line
17%
0%
25%
33%
0%
50%
50%
50%
50%
This opponent (Aarhus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (6)
11.5
8.3
14.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
23.3
21.3
25.3
vs Stronger (1)
15.0
-
15.0
2.0
-
2.0
32.0
-
32.0
vs Similar (4)
12.0
9.5
14.5
2.8
2.5
3.0
21.8
21.5
22.0
vs Weaker (1)
6.0
6.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
21.0
21.0
-
% over line
50%
33%
67%
33%
33%
33%
50%
33%
67%
% under line
50%
67%
33%
67%
67%
67%
50%
67%
33%
This opponent (AC Horsens) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Brondby
12.6
Aalborg
12.3
FC Midtjylland
11.8
Aarhus
11.5
AC Horsens
11.3
Silkeborg
11.2
Randers FC
10.3
FC Copenhagen
10.2
Viborg
9.8
Odense
9.2
FC Nordsjaelland
8.3
Lyngby
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
AC Horsens
5.2
Randers FC
5.0
Brondby
4.9
Aalborg
4.8
FC Copenhagen
4.8
Odense
4.3
Lyngby
4.3
FC Nordsjaelland
4.3
Viborg
3.8
FC Midtjylland
3.5
Aarhus
2.7
Silkeborg
2.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aarhus
23.3
Odense
22.7
FC Midtjylland
22.1
FC Nordsjaelland
22.0
Aalborg
21.0
AC Horsens
20.0
Lyngby
19.8
Brondby
19.4
Viborg
18.9
FC Copenhagen
18.9
Randers FC
17.5
Silkeborg
12.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
72.6%
Under 9.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.2%
Under 3.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
48.8%
Under 21.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AC Horsens
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.17
0.67
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
83% (+60pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Horsens) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AC Horsens over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Horsens over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Horsens over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AC Horsens
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.17
1.50
0.00
0.25
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
83% (+60pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.33
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Horsens) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AC Horsens over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Horsens over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Horsens over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 8.5 corners
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AC Horsens
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anders Jacobsen23%
Aron Sigurðarson20%
Magnus Jensen17%
Lubambo Musonda10%
Thomas Santos10%
Moses Opondo7%
Mikkel Lassen5%
Jonas Gemmer4%
James Gomez4%
Matej Delač0%
Alexander Ludwig0%
Janus Drachmann0%
Samson Iyede0%
Jacob Buus0%
Malte Kiilerich0%
Lirim Qamili0%
Simon Makienok0%
Elijah Just0%
Samuel Brolin0%
Marcus Bobjerg0%
Casper Tengstedt0%
Marcus Hannesbo0%
David Kruse0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Casper Tengstedt33%
Magnus Jensen25%
Malte Kiilerich21%
Mikkel Lassen18%
James Gomez18%
Lubambo Musonda17%
Aron Sigurðarson17%
Jonas Gemmer14%
Moses Opondo13%
David Kruse13%
Janus Drachmann12%
Matej Delač12%
Samson Iyede11%
Anders Jacobsen10%
Jacob Buus10%
Marcus Hannesbo10%
Alexander Ludwig8%
Elijah Just8%
Thomas Santos7%
Lirim Qamili0%
Simon Makienok0%
Samuel Brolin0%
Marcus Bobjerg0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Casper Tengstedt33%
Lubambo Musonda10%
Anders Jacobsen10%
David Kruse10%
Elijah Just8%
Simon Makienok7%
Moses Opondo7%
Thomas Santos7%
Matej Delač0%
Mikkel Lassen0%
Alexander Ludwig0%
Janus Drachmann0%
Jonas Gemmer0%
Samson Iyede0%
Jacob Buus0%
Malte Kiilerich0%
Lirim Qamili0%
Aron Sigurðarson0%
Magnus Jensen0%
Samuel Brolin0%
Marcus Bobjerg0%
James Gomez0%
Marcus Hannesbo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Casper Tengstedt67%
Aron Sigurðarson20%
Magnus Jensen17%
Anders Jacobsen10%
Elijah Just4%
Jonas Gemmer4%
Lubambo Musonda3%
Thomas Santos3%
Matej Delač0%
Mikkel Lassen0%
Moses Opondo0%
Alexander Ludwig0%
Janus Drachmann0%
Samson Iyede0%
Jacob Buus0%
Malte Kiilerich0%
Lirim Qamili0%
Simon Makienok0%
Samuel Brolin0%
Marcus Bobjerg0%
James Gomez0%
Marcus Hannesbo0%
David Kruse0%
Aarhus
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Patrick Mortensen44%
Mikael Anderson19%
Mikkel Duelund17%
Sebastian Grønning17%
Jelle Duin13%
Yann Bisseck12%
Kevin Yakob12%
Peter Bjur9%
Mads Emil Madsen7%
Sigurd Haugen6%
Thomas Kristensen5%
Frederik Tingager3%
Sebastian Hausner0%
Benjamin Hvidt0%
Tobias Mølgaard0%
Nicolai Poulsen0%
Jesper Hansen0%
Frederik Brandhof0%
Felix Beijmo0%
Anthony D'Alberto0%
Gift Links0%
Dawid Kurminowski0%
Eric Kahl0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Adam Daghim0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolai Poulsen36%
Adam Daghim33%
Felix Beijmo29%
Mikkel Duelund25%
Albert Grønbæk25%
Sebastian Hausner20%
Sebastian Grønning17%
Kevin Yakob17%
Mikael Anderson15%
Thomas Kristensen15%
Mads Emil Madsen15%
Sigurd Haugen13%
Tobias Mølgaard12%
Eric Kahl10%
Yann Bisseck9%
Peter Bjur9%
Frederik Brandhof8%
Anthony D'Alberto8%
Gift Links7%
Frederik Tingager7%
Jelle Duin7%
Patrick Mortensen6%
Jesper Hansen3%
Benjamin Hvidt0%
Dawid Kurminowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mikkel Duelund17%
Felix Beijmo14%
Nicolai Poulsen11%
Kevin Yakob8%
Mads Emil Madsen7%
Gift Links7%
Frederik Tingager7%
Tobias Mølgaard6%
Frederik Brandhof4%
Mikael Anderson4%
Sigurd Haugen3%
Patrick Mortensen3%
Yann Bisseck3%
Sebastian Hausner0%
Benjamin Hvidt0%
Sebastian Grønning0%
Jesper Hansen0%
Jelle Duin0%
Anthony D'Alberto0%
Dawid Kurminowski0%
Peter Bjur0%
Eric Kahl0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Thomas Kristensen0%
Adam Daghim0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sebastian Grønning33%
Mikael Anderson31%
Patrick Mortensen22%
Mads Emil Madsen7%
Gift Links7%
Sigurd Haugen6%
Eric Kahl3%
Mikkel Duelund0%
Sebastian Hausner0%
Frederik Tingager0%
Benjamin Hvidt0%
Tobias Mølgaard0%
Nicolai Poulsen0%
Jesper Hansen0%
Frederik Brandhof0%
Yann Bisseck0%
Felix Beijmo0%
Jelle Duin0%
Anthony D'Alberto0%
Kevin Yakob0%
Dawid Kurminowski0%
Peter Bjur0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Thomas Kristensen0%
Adam Daghim0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (26)
€108m
FC (26)
€73m
BRO (29)
€48m
FN (25)
€37m
AAR (28)
€36m
SIL (23)
€19m
VIB (22)
€19m
ODE (24)
€17m
RF (24)
€14m
LYN (22)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
AAL (24)
€10m
AC Horsens's squad is €26m less valuable than Aarhus's (€10m vs €36m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€47m
FN (8)
€18m
FC (7)
€17m
BRO (9)
€15m
AAR (10)
€14m
ODE (9)
€8m
SIL (6)
€6m
VIB (8)
€6m
RF (9)
€5m
AH (9)
€4m
LYN (5)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
AC Horsens's attack is €10m less valuable than Aarhus's (€4m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€24m
FC (7)
€17m
AAR (10)
€14m
BRO (5)
€11m
FN (5)
€7m
SIL (6)
€5m
LYN (8)
€5m
RF (5)
€3m
ODE (6)
€3m
VIB (4)
€2m
AH (6)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
AC Horsens's midfield is €12m less valuable than Aarhus's (€2m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FC (12)
€39m
FM (10)
€37m
BRO (15)
€22m
FN (12)
€12m
VIB (10)
€11m
AAR (8)
€8m
SIL (11)
€8m
ODE (9)
€7m
RF (10)
€6m
AAL (12)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
AH (12)
€4m
AC Horsens's defence is €4m less valuable than Aarhus's (€4m vs €8m).
Denmark: Superliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: Superliga stats & trends →
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FC Copenhagen
FC Nordsjaelland
FC Midtjylland
Viborg
Odense
Brondby
Silkeborg
Randers FC
Lyngby
Aalborg