AC Milan and Sunderland face a tightly contested Europa League tie, with the model favouring a home win. The expected goal tally sits at 2.3, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.5% chance. Milan’s home form shows an average of 1.0 goal scored and 0.8 conceded against similar opposition, while Sunderland’s away record averages 1.3 scored and 1.4 conceded. The model’s win probabilities are 40% for AC Milan, 31% for a draw, and 29% for Sunderland. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 5.5 (97.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Under 4.5 (91.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.1%) and Home +2 handicap (88.3%). Milan are on a two-game winning streak after a 2-0 victory over Venezia, whereas Sunderland return from a defeat, losing 1-2 to Ipswich. The match remains finely balanced, but the model’s pick points to a home victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
AC Milan win
39.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sunderland win
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AC Milan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.97
1.29
1.07
1.50
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.82
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (19)
1.63
1.05
1.44
1.22
1.80
0.90
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sunderland
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.30
0.92
1.00
1.00
1.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.67
0.67
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (19)
1.05
1.32
0.78
1.22
1.30
1.40
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.6%
Under 1.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.9%
Under 2.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.4%
Under 3.5
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
11.2%
1-0
11.1%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.3%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.5%
AC Milan goals ↓
Sunderland goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.1%
5.5%
1.9%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.9%
2.4%
0.6%
2
7.8%
8.3%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.3%
3.5%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AC Milan goals (down), columns = Sunderland goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
European competition: teams are ranked by a cross-league strength score - each side's domestic attack and defence made comparable via the model's fitted league strengths (stronger leagues weighted up). Each side's actual domestic figures are shown below.
🏆 Cross-league strength
0-100 · adjusted for league strength · 72 teams
Bournemouth
100
Sunderland
96
Crystal Palace
94
Juventus
92
Bayer Leverkusen
90
AC Milan
89
Benfica
89
1899 Hoffenheim
87
Celta Vigo
85
Marseille
84
Lyon
82
Union St. Gilloise
82
Real Sociedad
82
Rennes
80
FC Midtjylland
75
St. Truiden
70
Twente
69
NEC Nijmegen
68
Tromso
66
Omonia Nicosia
66
Kauno Žalgiris
65
Trabzonspor
65
Dinamo Zagreb
65
Anderlecht
64
Beşiktaş
64
AZ Alkmaar
64
Hammarby FF
64
Lech Poznan
63
Jagiellonia
62
Gornik Zabrze
62
Lillestrom
59
Plzen
58
Levski Sofia
57
Ferencvarosi TC
56
FC Thun
55
FC ST. Gallen
55
Hradec Králové
54
Sparta Praha
53
Aarhus
53
CSKA Sofia
53
Hapoel Beer Sheva
52
HNK Hajduk Split
52
Pafos
51
Qarabag
51
Heart Of Midlothian
51
FK Crvena Zvezda
50
Sturm Graz
50
Red Bull Salzburg
49
Celtic
49
Rangers
49
Olympiakos Piraeus
48
Maccabi Tel Aviv
47
Universitatea Craiova
46
Dynamo Kyiv
46
OFI
43
Mjallby AIF
43
PAOK
38
Kairat Almaty
35
Vikingur Reykjavik
34
Žilina
30
Celje
29
Shamrock Rovers
26
KuPS
24
Torreense
24
Ararat-Armenia
23
Sheriff Tiraspol
16
Vestri
14
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
13
Larne
12
KI Klaksvik
8
Saburtalo
1
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0
AC Milan is 7 pts weaker cross-league than Sunderland(89 vs 96 · ranks #6 vs #2 of 72).
AC Milan 1.84 (Italy: Serie A) · Sunderland 1.42 (England: Premier League). Domestic-league average points per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
AC Milan 1.39 (Italy: Serie A) · Sunderland 1.11 (England: Premier League). Domestic-league goals scored per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
AC Milan 0.92 (Italy: Serie A) · Sunderland 1.26 (England: Premier League). Domestic-league goals conceded per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
⏱️ Possession
Not compared for European ties.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AC Milan
For 2.9 · Against 3.3 · Total 6.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 11.3 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sunderland
For 4.2 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AC Milan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.7
8.7
3.6
4.0
3.1
21.8
21.7
21.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
8.6
7.8
9.4
4.0
4.9
3.1
21.0
21.4
20.6
vs Weaker (29)
8.8
9.3
8.3
3.3
3.4
3.1
22.3
21.9
22.6
% over line
44%
50%
38%
54%
71%
38%
54%
50%
58%
% under line
56%
50%
62%
46%
29%
62%
46%
50%
42%
This opponent (Sunderland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sunderland
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.4
9.1
3.8
3.7
4.0
22.6
22.0
23.2
vs Stronger (9)
9.8
10.0
9.5
2.2
2.2
2.2
21.6
23.0
20.2
vs Similar (28)
9.0
9.2
8.9
4.6
4.9
4.3
23.5
22.8
24.1
vs Weaker (13)
9.3
9.5
9.2
3.3
2.4
4.3
21.2
19.7
22.8
% over line
47%
48%
46%
50%
44%
56%
64%
61%
67%
% under line
53%
52%
54%
50%
56%
44%
36%
39%
33%
This opponent (AC Milan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
11.5
Larne
11.4
Celtic
11.0
Torreense
11.0
FC ST. Gallen
10.8
Bournemouth
10.7
Lillestrom
10.6
Rennes
10.5
Kairat Almaty
10.4
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
FC Midtjylland
10.4
Beşiktaş
10.3
Anderlecht
10.3
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Lech Poznan
10.3
Real Sociedad
10.3
KI Klaksvik
10.2
FC Thun
10.2
Gornik Zabrze
10.1
Rangers
10.1
Benfica
10.1
Omonia Nicosia
10.0
Sturm Graz
10.0
Twente
10.0
Hammarby FF
9.9
Dynamo Kyiv
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Sparta Praha
9.9
Lyon
9.9
Mjallby AIF
9.8
St. Truiden
9.8
KuPS
9.8
FK Crvena Zvezda
9.7
Juventus
9.7
Hradec Králové
9.7
Ferencvarosi TC
9.7
Trabzonspor
9.6
Ararat-Armenia
9.6
Aarhus
9.6
Dinamo Zagreb
9.6
Žilina
9.6
CSKA Sofia
9.6
Pafos
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
Levski Sofia
9.5
Qarabag
9.5
Jagiellonia
9.4
Plzen
9.4
Celje
9.4
Red Bull Salzburg
9.4
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.2
Kauno Žalgiris
9.1
HNK Hajduk Split
9.1
Sunderland
9.1
Sheriff Tiraspol
9.1
Marseille
9.1
Saburtalo
9.0
Union St. Gilloise
9.0
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.9
PAOK
8.8
OFI
8.8
Tromso
8.8
Lincoln Red Imps FC
8.7
Crystal Palace
8.7
Universitatea Craiova
8.7
Maccabi Tel Aviv
8.7
AC Milan
8.6
Vikingur Reykjavik
8.6
Shamrock Rovers
8.2
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC ST. Gallen
5.8
Ararat-Armenia
5.8
Plzen
5.5
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.4
OFI
5.3
Anderlecht
5.2
Torreense
5.2
Maccabi Tel Aviv
5.1
Real Sociedad
5.1
Larne
5.1
Vikingur Reykjavik
5.1
Lincoln Red Imps FC
5.1
Beşiktaş
5.1
Universitatea Craiova
5.1
Benfica
5.0
FC Thun
4.9
Pafos
4.9
Union St. Gilloise
4.9
Saburtalo
4.9
Celje
4.9
Shamrock Rovers
4.9
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Sturm Graz
4.8
Sparta Praha
4.8
Trabzonspor
4.7
Celta Vigo
4.7
Ferencvarosi TC
4.7
Lyon
4.6
Levski Sofia
4.6
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
HNK Hajduk Split
4.6
PAOK
4.6
Jagiellonia
4.6
Bournemouth
4.5
Marseille
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
KI Klaksvik
4.4
Sheriff Tiraspol
4.4
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.4
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Midtjylland
4.3
Dinamo Zagreb
4.3
Rangers
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Qarabag
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
St. Truiden
4.0
Lillestrom
4.0
Gornik Zabrze
4.0
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
4.0
Dynamo Kyiv
4.0
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Lech Poznan
3.9
Žilina
3.9
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.9
Aarhus
3.9
Celtic
3.8
Twente
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Mjallby AIF
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Juventus
3.7
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
Hradec Králové
3.7
Red Bull Salzburg
3.6
Kauno Žalgiris
3.6
Hammarby FF
3.6
Tromso
3.3
KuPS
3.2
Vestri
0.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC ST. Gallen
30.1
Saburtalo
30.0
Maccabi Tel Aviv
29.5
OFI
28.8
FC Midtjylland
28.1
FC Thun
28.0
Hapoel Beer Sheva
28.0
Ferencvarosi TC
27.9
HNK Hajduk Split
27.5
Rangers
26.7
Jagiellonia
26.6
Real Sociedad
26.6
Trabzonspor
26.5
Žilina
26.3
Plzen
26.3
Kairat Almaty
26.1
Pafos
26.1
Benfica
25.8
Vikingur Reykjavik
25.7
Larne
25.4
Beşiktaş
25.2
PAOK
25.2
Mjallby AIF
25.1
Lyon
25.1
Celje
25.0
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.0
Omonia Nicosia
24.9
Lincoln Red Imps FC
24.9
Anderlecht
24.9
Celta Vigo
24.9
Sparta Praha
24.7
Heart Of Midlothian
24.6
Levski Sofia
24.5
Hammarby FF
24.4
Aarhus
24.3
Lech Poznan
24.1
Rennes
24.0
Qarabag
24.0
FK Crvena Zvezda
24.0
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Tromso
23.9
Sturm Graz
23.8
Universitatea Craiova
23.8
Juventus
23.5
Dinamo Zagreb
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Sheriff Tiraspol
23.1
Shamrock Rovers
22.9
Gornik Zabrze
22.8
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
Hradec Králové
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
Lillestrom
22.6
CSKA Sofia
22.6
Ararat-Armenia
22.3
KuPS
22.0
Kauno Žalgiris
22.0
AC Milan
21.8
Union St. Gilloise
21.8
Celtic
21.4
Dynamo Kyiv
21.3
Crystal Palace
21.3
St. Truiden
21.2
Torreense
21.1
Twente
20.6
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
19.7
Red Bull Salzburg
19.4
KI Klaksvik
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
36.2%
Under 9.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.7%
Under 3.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.1%
Under 21.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AC Milan or Draw
70.4%
Avg Implied -
40%
31%
30%
covers AC Milan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AC Milan or Sunderland
69.3%
Avg Implied -
40%
31%
30%
covers AC Milan + Sunderland
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sunderland
60.2%
Avg Implied -
40%
31%
30%
covers Draw + Sunderland
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AC Milan over/under 0.5
Over
71.7%
Under
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Milan over/under 1.5
Over
36.0%
Under
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Milan over/under 2.5
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Milan over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 0.5
Over
65.2%
Under
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 1.5
Over
28.5%
Under
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 2.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AC Milan, so a minus line means AC Milan give that many goals of a start and Sunderland receive them. At -1, AC Milan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AC Milan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AC Milan)
AC Milan -2
6.3%
Draw -2
12.0%
Sunderland +2
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (AC Milan)
AC Milan -1
18.3%
Draw -1
21.5%
Sunderland +1
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (AC Milan)
AC Milan +1
70.4%
Draw +1
17.7%
Sunderland -1
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (AC Milan)
AC Milan +2
88.1%
Draw +2
8.4%
Sunderland -2
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AC Milan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.36
0.64
0.50
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.18
0.45
0.20
0.60
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
0.58
0.53
0.44
0.67
0.70
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sunderland
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.38
0.38
0.35
0.82
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.63
0.22
0.56
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.80
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AC Milan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Milan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Milan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AC Milan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.47
0.93
0.43
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.36
0.80
0.20
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.53
1.00
0.56
1.10
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sunderland
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.54
0.62
0.65
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.68
0.56
0.67
0.90
0.70
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AC Milan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Milan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Milan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AC Milan · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafael Leão29%
Christian Pulišić24%
Christopher Nkunku21%
Adrien Rabiot16%
Strahinja Pavlović14%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek10%
Alexis Saelemaekers8%
Zachary Athekame7%
Youssouf Fofana6%
Luka Modrić6%
Santiago Giménez6%
Niclas Füllkrug5%
Pervis Estupiñán5%
Koni De Winter4%
Davide Bartesaghi3%
Samuele Ricci3%
Fikayo Tomori0%
Mike Maignan0%
Matteo Gabbia0%
Ardon Jashari0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pervis Estupiñán29%
Fikayo Tomori19%
Strahinja Pavlović16%
Adrien Rabiot16%
Rafael Leão16%
Alexis Saelemaekers13%
Matteo Gabbia13%
Samuele Ricci12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Luka Modrić11%
Santiago Giménez11%
Zachary Athekame11%
Mike Maignan10%
Davide Bartesaghi9%
Koni De Winter7%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek6%
Christian Pulišić0%
Christopher Nkunku0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Ardon Jashari0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Adrien Rabiot13%
Christian Pulišić12%
Samuele Ricci12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Santiago Giménez11%
Alexis Saelemaekers11%
Rafael Leão10%
Christopher Nkunku9%
Luka Modrić8%
Fikayo Tomori8%
Zachary Athekame7%
Ardon Jashari6%
Pervis Estupiñán5%
Koni De Winter4%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek3%
Davide Bartesaghi3%
Strahinja Pavlović3%
Mike Maignan0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Matteo Gabbia0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafael Leão26%
Christian Pulišić21%
Santiago Giménez17%
Adrien Rabiot13%
Christopher Nkunku12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek10%
Matteo Gabbia6%
Ardon Jashari6%
Alexis Saelemaekers5%
Samuele Ricci3%
Strahinja Pavlović3%
Luka Modrić0%
Fikayo Tomori0%
Mike Maignan0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Pervis Estupiñán0%
Koni De Winter0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
Davide Bartesaghi0%
David Odogu0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Sunderland · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marc Guiu33%
Brian Brobbey22%
Wilson Isidor17%
Enzo Le Fée15%
Habib Diarra14%
Chemsdine Talbi13%
Eliezer Mayenda9%
Nordi Mukiele9%
Bertrand Traoré8%
Simon Adingra7%
Daniel Ballard6%
Trai Hume5%
Chris Rigg5%
Omar Alderete3%
Granit Xhaka3%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Dan Neil0%
Luke O'Nien0%
Reinildo Mandava0%
Lutsharel Geertruida0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Robin Roefs0%
Melker Ellborg0%
Romaine Mundle0%
Jenson Seelt0%
Nilson Angulo0%
Noah Sadiki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arthur Masuaku50%
Noah Sadiki31%
Reinildo Mandava28%
Trai Hume28%
Habib Diarra27%
Granit Xhaka25%
Dan Neil25%
Melker Ellborg25%
Dennis Cirkin20%
Brian Brobbey19%
Omar Alderete18%
Nordi Mukiele17%
Daniel Ballard16%
Enzo Le Fée15%
Luke O'Nien13%
Simon Adingra13%
Nilson Angulo11%
Robin Roefs11%
Bertrand Traoré8%
Lutsharel Geertruida7%
Romaine Mundle6%
Wilson Isidor6%
Chris Rigg5%
Jenson Seelt0%
Chemsdine Talbi0%
Eliezer Mayenda0%
Marc Guiu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Granit Xhaka17%
Enzo Le Fée15%
Habib Diarra9%
Nordi Mukiele9%
Luke O'Nien7%
Chris Rigg5%
Eliezer Mayenda4%
Reinildo Mandava4%
Chemsdine Talbi3%
Brian Brobbey3%
Omar Alderete3%
Noah Sadiki3%
Trai Hume2%
Bertrand Traoré0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Dan Neil0%
Lutsharel Geertruida0%
Daniel Ballard0%
Wilson Isidor0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Robin Roefs0%
Melker Ellborg0%
Romaine Mundle0%
Jenson Seelt0%
Simon Adingra0%
Nilson Angulo0%
Marc Guiu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marc Guiu33%
Habib Diarra14%
Romaine Mundle12%
Nilson Angulo11%
Daniel Ballard6%
Brian Brobbey6%
Omar Alderete6%
Wilson Isidor6%
Eliezer Mayenda4%
Chemsdine Talbi3%
Trai Hume2%
Bertrand Traoré0%
Nordi Mukiele0%
Granit Xhaka0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Dan Neil0%
Luke O'Nien0%
Enzo Le Fée0%
Reinildo Mandava0%
Lutsharel Geertruida0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Robin Roefs0%
Melker Ellborg0%
Jenson Seelt0%
Simon Adingra0%
Chris Rigg0%
Noah Sadiki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AM (33)
€585m
BOU (31)
€573m
JUV (28)
€569m
CRY (29)
€505m
BL (30)
€499m
SUN (30)
€392m
BEN (25)
€357m
1H (53)
€309m
LYO (32)
€293m
RS (24)
€247m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
BEŞ (34)
€202m
OP (29)
€175m
TRA (31)
€168m
CV (24)
€163m
RAN (29)
€136m
AA (32)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
FCZ (32)
€115m
FM (26)
€108m
RBS (31)
€105m
USG (26)
€98m
SP (35)
€92m
AND (32)
€91m
DK (37)
€91m
TWE (32)
€87m
PAO (32)
€82m
DZ (34)
€66m
LP (25)
€58m
PLZ (28)
€57m
NN (29)
€54m
SG (26)
€52m
FT (40)
€40m
LS (27)
€38m
UC (25)
€37m
AAR (28)
€36m
MTA (29)
€35m
HF (22)
€35m
HHS (29)
€34m
FSG (28)
€32m
JAG (26)
€30m
ST (23)
€30m
GZ (27)
€29m
PAF (23)
€28m
CS (25)
€26m
MA (24)
€26m
QAR (25)
€25m
HOM (30)
€22m
HBS (26)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
OFI (24)
€18m
FT (25)
€17m
ON (23)
€15m
TRO (22)
€15m
LIL (25)
€14m
HK (27)
€14m
CEL (31)
€14m
ŽIL (25)
€12m
KŽ (27)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
ARA (26)
€8m
KUP (30)
€7m
SR (31)
€7m
ER (24)
€7m
SAB (22)
€6m
ST (24)
€6m
VR (26)
€5m
LAR (23)
€4m
KK (28)
€3m
LRI (25)
€2m
VES (19)
€1m
AC Milan's squad is €193m more valuable than Sunderland's (€585m vs €392m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOU (11)
€285m
BL (13)
€246m
JUV (10)
€240m
CRY (11)
€229m
AM (8)
€223m
BEN (10)
€172m
SUN (9)
€157m
LYO (9)
€122m
1H (22)
€111m
RS (10)
€110m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
OP (12)
€84m
BEŞ (11)
€70m
TRA (11)
€67m
FCZ (13)
€62m
AA (13)
€61m
CV (9)
€57m
CEL (11)
€56m
AND (12)
€50m
RBS (11)
€47m
FM (8)
€47m
SP (14)
€43m
RAN (9)
€38m
TWE (12)
€34m
DZ (15)
€33m
USG (10)
€32m
DK (13)
€32m
PAO (11)
€30m
SG (11)
€26m
FT (18)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
LP (10)
€21m
GZ (13)
€17m
HHS (10)
€15m
PLZ (8)
€15m
UC (10)
€14m
AAR (10)
€14m
PAF (9)
€14m
HF (9)
€13m
MTA (12)
€13m
HOM (12)
€12m
FSG (11)
€12m
JAG (11)
€12m
ST (10)
€11m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
HBS (13)
€10m
QAR (9)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
TOR (12)
€7m
CEL (12)
€7m
MA (9)
€7m
OFI (6)
€6m
LIL (9)
€6m
HK (8)
€4m
ŽIL (10)
€4m
FT (7)
€4m
KŽ (11)
€4m
TRO (6)
€4m
KA (9)
€4m
SR (14)
€3m
ARA (9)
€3m
VR (12)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
ST (8)
€3m
KUP (9)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
LAR (6)
€1m
KK (9)
€1m
LRI (11)
€1m
VES (7)
€0m
AC Milan's attack is €66m more valuable than Sunderland's (€223m vs €157m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
1H (11)
€105m
CRY (5)
€93m
BL (5)
€91m
LYO (8)
€82m
BEN (5)
€77m
MAR (5)
€68m
RS (5)
€58m
BEŞ (9)
€50m
OP (6)
€47m
RAN (8)
€44m
REN (5)
€44m
TRA (9)
€38m
USG (7)
€38m
CV (3)
€35m
RBS (6)
€29m
PAO (7)
€28m
SP (10)
€27m
DK (8)
€26m
FM (8)
€24m
PLZ (8)
€22m
AA (4)
€21m
FCZ (6)
€21m
CEL (5)
€20m
AND (5)
€18m
AAR (10)
€14m
SG (4)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HF (4)
€11m
MA (6)
€11m
UC (6)
€10m
MTA (6)
€9m
LP (3)
€9m
LS (5)
€8m
PAF (5)
€8m
FT (9)
€8m
HHS (6)
€8m
FSG (6)
€6m
CS (6)
€6m
GZ (4)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
HBS (3)
€5m
ST (4)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
ON (4)
€3m
OFI (5)
€3m
JAG (5)
€3m
QAR (3)
€3m
HK (6)
€3m
TRO (5)
€3m
KUP (9)
€3m
KA (5)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
SR (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
ŽIL (4)
€1m
ER (5)
€1m
CEL (4)
€1m
ST (6)
€1m
KK (8)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
LAR (7)
€1m
VES (6)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
AC Milan's midfield is €44m more valuable than Sunderland's (€153m vs €110m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
BL (12)
€162m
SUN (15)
€125m
REN (13)
€109m
BEN (10)
€108m
1H (20)
€92m
LYO (15)
€89m
BEŞ (14)
€82m
RS (9)
€79m
CV (12)
€71m
MAR (8)
€66m
TRA (11)
€63m
RAN (12)
€54m
AA (15)
€54m
OP (11)
€44m
CEL (11)
€41m
TWE (15)
€39m
FM (10)
€37m
DK (16)
€33m
FCZ (13)
€33m
DZ (17)
€30m
RBS (14)
€29m
LP (12)
€28m
USG (9)
€28m
NN (13)
€26m
AND (15)
€24m
PAO (14)
€24m
SP (11)
€22m
PLZ (12)
€20m
LS (12)
€19m
JAG (10)
€15m
ST (9)
€14m
FSG (11)
€14m
QAR (13)
€14m
UC (9)
€13m
SG (11)
€13m
MTA (11)
€13m
HHS (13)
€11m
HF (9)
€10m
CS (10)
€10m
TOR (15)
€10m
FT (13)
€9m
MA (9)
€8m
TRO (11)
€8m
AAR (8)
€8m
OFI (13)
€8m
FT (10)
€8m
HK (13)
€7m
PAF (9)
€7m
ŽIL (11)
€6m
GZ (10)
€6m
CEL (15)
€6m
HOM (12)
€6m
LIL (12)
€5m
HBS (10)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
KŽ (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
ER (13)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
ST (10)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
SR (10)
€2m
VR (10)
€2m
LAR (10)
€2m
KK (11)
€1m
LRI (10)
€1m
VES (6)
€0m
AC Milan's defence is €84m more valuable than Sunderland's (€209m vs €125m).
World: UEFA Europa League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full World: UEFA Europa League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Anderlecht
Beşiktaş
Ferencvarosi TC
Benfica
Lech Poznan
Jagiellonia
Red Bull Salzburg
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Omonia Nicosia
OFI
PAOK
Hradec Králové
Qarabag
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Universitatea Craiova
CSKA Sofia
Pafos
Ararat-Armenia
FC Thun
Žilina
Plzen
FK Crvena Zvezda
St. Truiden
Shamrock Rovers
Vikingur Reykjavik
Kauno Žalgiris
HNK Hajduk Split
FC ST. Gallen
Larne
Lillestrom
Saburtalo
Twente
Rangers
KuPS
Gornik Zabrze
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Hammarby FF
Heart Of Midlothian
Juventus
Celta Vigo
AZ Alkmaar
NEC Nijmegen
Celtic
Bournemouth
Torreense
Real Sociedad
Dinamo Zagreb
Celje
Sparta Praha
Lyon
Sturm Graz
Union St. Gilloise
Olympiakos Piraeus
Rennes
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Crystal Palace
Marseille
Bayer Leverkusen
Levski Sofia
1899 Hoffenheim
Dynamo Kyiv
Tromso
Vestri
FC Midtjylland
Aarhus
Mjallby AIF
Trabzonspor
Kairat Almaty
Sheriff Tiraspol
KI Klaksvik