This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.33
1.62
1.31
1.57
1.36
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
1.43
1.50
1.25
1.67
1.67
vs Similar (22)
1.50
1.32
1.67
1.33
1.30
1.30
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Academico Viseu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
65.8%
Under 1.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.7%
Under 2.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.1%
Under 3.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.5%
No
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0 ✓
13.1%
0-0
12.4%
2-0
9.3%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
4.5%
Academico Viseu goals ↓
Penafiel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.7%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.9%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.3%
8.4%
3.8%
1.1%
0.3%
3
4.0%
3.6%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Academico Viseu goals (down), columns = Penafiel goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tondela
1.88
Alverca
1.85
Vizela
1.82
Benfica B
1.62
Torreense
1.59
União de Leiria
1.53
Chaves
1.50
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Feirense
1.44
Felgueiras 1932
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.32
Penafiel
1.32
Maritimo
1.26
Leixoes
1.21
FC Porto B
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Oliveirense
0.85
Mafra
0.79
Academico Viseu and Penafiel are level in average points per game (both 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alverca
1.71
Tondela
1.71
Benfica B
1.56
Vizela
1.47
Torreense
1.44
União de Leiria
1.44
Penafiel
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.26
Felgueiras 1932
1.26
Maritimo
1.24
Chaves
1.18
Portimonense
1.12
Leixoes
1.09
FC Porto B
1.06
Feirense
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Oliveirense
0.88
Mafra
0.85
Academico Viseu is 0.06 goals worse than Penafiel in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vizela
0.88
Chaves
1.00
Alverca
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
União de Leiria
1.09
Benfica B
1.12
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.21
Torreense
1.24
Leixoes
1.24
Penafiel
1.38
FC Porto B
1.38
Maritimo
1.41
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.59
Mafra
1.59
Oliveirense
1.88
Academico Viseu is 0.18 goals better than Penafiel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
62%
Felgueiras 1932
57%
Chaves
56%
União de Leiria
55%
Benfica B
53%
Oliveirense
51%
Maritimo
51%
FC Porto B
51%
Leixoes
51%
Mafra
50%
Torreense
50%
Feirense
50%
Academico Viseu
48%
Alverca
48%
Penafiel
47%
Tondela
47%
Portimonense
40%
Pacos Ferreira
39%
Academico Viseu is 1.0 percentage points better than Penafiel in terms of average possession (48% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Academico Viseu
For 2.0 · Against 7.5 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 5.0 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Penafiel
For 2.3 · Against 10.7 · Total 13.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Academico Viseu
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.1
9.9
3.7
3.9
3.5
19.7
19.2
20.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
9.4
9.0
9.8
3.8
4.1
3.5
20.4
20.2
20.5
vs Weaker (10)
9.7
9.2
10.3
3.1
3.0
3.2
18.1
17.4
19.0
% over line
50%
45%
55%
50%
50%
50%
55%
57%
53%
% under line
50%
55%
45%
50%
50%
50%
45%
43%
47%
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.5
9.5
3.5
3.3
3.6
19.0
19.1
18.8
vs Stronger (11)
7.5
8.0
7.0
3.0
3.3
2.6
16.1
15.5
16.8
vs Similar (38)
10.6
11.0
10.1
3.7
3.3
4.1
19.8
20.1
19.5
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
45%
50%
40%
56%
50%
62%
51%
47%
56%
% under line
55%
50%
60%
44%
50%
38%
49%
53%
44%
This opponent (Academico Viseu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Tondela
11.3
Oliveirense
11.0
Torreense
11.0
Portimonense
10.7
Feirense
10.7
FC Porto B
10.3
União de Leiria
10.2
Benfica B
10.2
Chaves
10.0
Penafiel
9.8
Mafra
9.8
Vizela
9.8
Leixoes
9.8
Pacos Ferreira
9.8
Academico Viseu
9.5
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Maritimo
9.1
Felgueiras 1932
8.5
Alverca
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Felgueiras 1932
5.9
Oliveirense
5.7
Chaves
5.6
Maritimo
5.5
Benfica B
5.5
Leixoes
5.5
Torreense
5.2
Penafiel
5.2
Pacos Ferreira
5.2
Tondela
5.1
Portimonense
5.0
Vizela
5.0
União de Leiria
5.0
FC Porto B
4.6
Feirense
4.5
Academico Viseu
4.4
Alverca
4.3
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Mafra
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Leixoes
25.9
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Pacos Ferreira
23.6
Tondela
23.2
Vizela
23.1
Feirense
22.3
Chaves
21.8
Maritimo
21.4
Oliveirense
21.4
União de Leiria
20.8
Academico Viseu
20.6
Portimonense
20.5
Mafra
20.3
Torreense
20.2
Benfica B
20.2
FC Porto B
20.1
Penafiel
20.1
Alverca
7.9
Felgueiras 1932
7.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.2%
Under 9.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.1%
Under 3.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.7%
Under 21.5
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Academico Viseu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.86
0.29
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.59
0.85
0.31
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
1.06
1.06
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.86
0.75
1.25
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.77
1.17
1.00
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Academico Viseu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Academico Viseu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academico Viseu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academico Viseu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Academico Viseu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.36
0.64
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.44
0.67
0.31
0.62
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.56
0.25
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.57
0.75
0.00
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.55
0.50
0.33
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Academico Viseu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Academico Viseu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academico Viseu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academico Viseu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 21.5 fouls
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 19.5 fouls
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Academico Viseu
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yuri Araújo43%
Marquinho17%
André Clóvis14%
Sori Mané0%
Alan Marinelli0%
Nigel Thomas0%
Paulinho Mota0%
Bruno Brígido0%
Henrique Gomes0%
Luís Silva0%
André Almeida0%
Diogo Almeida0%
Nils Mortimer0%
Soufiane Messeguem0%
Gauthier Ott0%
Nikolaos Michelis0%
Samba Koné0%
Kauã Oliveira0%
Simao Silva0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Henrique Gomes83%
Soufiane Messeguem43%
Samba Koné43%
Luís Silva33%
Nils Mortimer33%
Kauã Oliveira33%
André Clóvis29%
Alan Marinelli25%
André Almeida25%
Sori Mané0%
Nigel Thomas0%
Paulinho Mota0%
Bruno Brígido0%
Yuri Araújo0%
Diogo Almeida0%
Gauthier Ott0%
Nikolaos Michelis0%
Marquinho0%
Simao Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sori Mané0%
Alan Marinelli0%
Nigel Thomas0%
Paulinho Mota0%
Bruno Brígido0%
Yuri Araújo0%
Henrique Gomes0%
Luís Silva0%
André Clóvis0%
André Almeida0%
Diogo Almeida0%
Nils Mortimer0%
Soufiane Messeguem0%
Gauthier Ott0%
Nikolaos Michelis0%
Samba Koné0%
Marquinho0%
Kauã Oliveira0%
Simao Silva0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Clóvis43%
Yuri Araújo14%
Samba Koné14%
Sori Mané0%
Alan Marinelli0%
Nigel Thomas0%
Paulinho Mota0%
Bruno Brígido0%
Henrique Gomes0%
Luís Silva0%
André Almeida0%
Diogo Almeida0%
Nils Mortimer0%
Soufiane Messeguem0%
Gauthier Ott0%
Nikolaos Michelis0%
Marquinho0%
Kauã Oliveira0%
Simao Silva0%
Penafiel
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zé Leite40%
Gabriel Barbosa33%
Robinho25%
Maga17%
Diogo Batista17%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Sodiq Fatai0%
Reko0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
João Silva0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rúben Pereira60%
Tiago Rodrigues57%
Maga33%
Gabriel Barbosa33%
Edu Pinheiro33%
Reko29%
Robinho25%
Sodiq Fatai25%
Manuel Baldé25%
João Silva17%
Andre Silva17%
Ewerton0%
João Miguel0%
Zé Leite0%
Diogo Batista0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sodiq Fatai25%
Zé Leite20%
João Silva17%
Helder Suker14%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Robinho0%
Reko0%
Maga0%
Gabriel Barbosa0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
Diogo Batista0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zé Leite20%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Robinho0%
Sodiq Fatai0%
Reko0%
Maga0%
Gabriel Barbosa0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
João Silva0%
Diogo Batista0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (30)
€39m
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Academico Viseu's squad is €11m more valuable than Penafiel's (€16m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (8)
€15m
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Academico Viseu's attack is €6m more valuable than Penafiel's (€8m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
ALV (8)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Academico Viseu's midfield is €2m more valuable than Penafiel's (€3m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (14)
€18m
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Academico Viseu's defence is €3m more valuable than Penafiel's (€6m vs €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Tondela
Alverca
Vizela
Benfica B
Torreense
União de Leiria
Chaves
Feirense
Felgueiras 1932
Maritimo
Leixoes
Pacos Ferreira
FC Porto B
Portimonense
Oliveirense
Mafra
CF Os Belenenses