This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.57
1.50
1.36
1.19
1.75
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
2.60
2.00
3.00
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (23)
1.30
1.48
1.36
1.18
1.25
1.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.0%
@ 2.21+7.5%
Under 2.5
50.0%
@ 1.63-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 3.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
2-1
8.7%
1-0
8.6%
0-0 ✓
8.1%
1-2
7.7%
0-1
7.4%
2-0
7.0%
2-2
5.5%
Accrington goals ↓
Cheltenham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
7.4%
5.4%
2.3%
0.7%
1
8.6%
14%
7.7%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.0%
8.7%
5.5%
2.3%
0.7%
3
3.3%
4.1%
2.6%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Accrington goals (down), columns = Cheltenham goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Doncaster
1.83
Port Vale
1.74
Bradford
1.70
Walsall
1.67
AFC Wimbledon
1.59
Notts County
1.57
Chesterfield
1.52
Salford
1.50
Grimsby
1.48
Colchester
1.46
Bromley
1.43
Swindon
1.35
Crewe
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
Barrow
1.28
Gillingham
1.26
Harrogate
1.15
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Tranmere
1.11
Accrington
1.09
Newport County
1.07
Carlisle
0.91
Morecambe
0.78
Accrington is 0.22 points worse than Cheltenham in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Walsall
1.63
Doncaster
1.59
Chesterfield
1.59
Swindon
1.54
Notts County
1.48
Port Vale
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Bradford
1.39
Salford
1.39
Grimsby
1.33
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
AFC Wimbledon
1.22
Accrington
1.15
Colchester
1.13
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Newport County
1.13
Barrow
1.13
Crewe
1.07
Tranmere
0.98
Carlisle
0.96
Harrogate
0.93
Gillingham
0.89
Morecambe
0.87
Accrington is 0.15 goals worse than Cheltenham in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
AFC Wimbledon
0.76
Bradford
0.98
Port Vale
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Colchester
1.02
Crewe
1.04
Notts County
1.07
Doncaster
1.09
Barrow
1.09
Walsall
1.17
Salford
1.17
Chesterfield
1.17
Bromley
1.28
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Harrogate
1.33
Swindon
1.37
Tranmere
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.43
Grimsby
1.46
Accrington
1.50
Cheltenham
1.52
Carlisle
1.54
Morecambe
1.57
Newport County
1.65
Accrington is 0.02 goals better than Cheltenham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.52).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
62%
Chesterfield
61%
Milton Keynes Dons
60%
Carlisle
53%
Swindon
52%
Salford
52%
Doncaster
52%
Tranmere
52%
Colchester
51%
Port Vale
51%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
AFC Wimbledon
49%
Gillingham
49%
Grimsby
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Barrow
47%
Newport County
47%
Cheltenham
45%
Morecambe
45%
Accrington
45%
Walsall
44%
Harrogate
43%
Bromley
42%
Accrington is 0.4 percentage points worse than Cheltenham in terms of average possession (45% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Accrington
For 3.7 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.9 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 10.7 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cheltenham
For 4.1 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 13.3 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Accrington
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.5
8.5
4.0
3.5
4.5
24.8
23.7
25.8
vs Stronger (12)
8.7
10.7
7.9
4.0
3.3
4.2
25.9
22.3
27.4
vs Similar (37)
9.6
10.4
8.6
4.1
3.5
4.8
24.5
23.9
25.2
vs Weaker (1)
11.0
-
11.0
2.0
-
2.0
23.0
-
23.0
% over line
54%
68%
42%
56%
48%
63%
74%
59%
88%
% under line
46%
32%
58%
44%
52%
37%
26%
41%
12%
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.4
10.0
3.4
3.9
2.9
24.0
24.0
24.1
vs Stronger (16)
11.1
11.8
10.6
2.9
3.8
2.3
20.7
21.0
20.6
vs Similar (31)
9.1
8.7
9.5
3.5
4.0
3.1
25.3
24.7
26.2
vs Weaker (3)
8.7
8.0
10.0
4.7
3.5
7.0
28.0
27.0
30.0
% over line
57%
58%
57%
48%
62%
35%
74%
71%
78%
% under line
43%
42%
43%
52%
38%
65%
26%
29%
22%
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Notts County
10.9
Fleetwood Town
10.8
Harrogate
10.8
Morecambe
10.7
Tranmere
10.7
Walsall
10.4
Port Vale
10.3
Bromley
10.3
Grimsby
10.2
Doncaster
10.1
Swindon
10.1
Chesterfield
10.0
Crewe
10.0
Bradford
9.9
Colchester
9.8
Cheltenham
9.8
Barrow
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Newport County
9.6
Carlisle
9.5
Salford
9.3
Gillingham
9.2
AFC Wimbledon
9.0
Milton Keynes Dons
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Salford
4.6
AFC Wimbledon
4.6
Bradford
4.6
Crewe
4.6
Barrow
4.6
Colchester
4.3
Accrington
4.3
Chesterfield
4.2
Morecambe
4.2
Doncaster
4.2
Notts County
4.2
Tranmere
4.2
Carlisle
4.1
Grimsby
4.1
Milton Keynes Dons
4.1
Gillingham
4.1
Fleetwood Town
4.0
Port Vale
3.8
Cheltenham
3.8
Newport County
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Bromley
3.5
Swindon
3.3
Harrogate
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Salford
25.3
Grimsby
25.1
Doncaster
24.6
Accrington
24.4
Bradford
24.3
Cheltenham
24.0
AFC Wimbledon
23.7
Morecambe
23.5
Colchester
23.4
Crewe
23.3
Chesterfield
23.3
Milton Keynes Dons
23.0
Newport County
22.9
Barrow
22.7
Gillingham
22.4
Fleetwood Town
22.1
Bromley
22.0
Port Vale
21.6
Tranmere
21.5
Carlisle
21.5
Harrogate
21.5
Walsall
21.1
Swindon
21.0
Notts County
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
36.9%
Under 9.5
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.0%
Under 3.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
82.2%
Under 21.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Accrington
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.93
0.71
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.71
1.00
0.62
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.43
0.64
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.61
0.27
0.55
0.58
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Accrington over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Accrington
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.00
0.57
0.86
0.88
1.12
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.83
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.80
vs Similar (24)
0.71
1.04
0.62
0.85
0.82
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.93
1.07
0.71
0.56
1.12
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.60
1.00
1.50
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.87
1.09
0.64
0.67
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Accrington over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Accrington · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Farrend Rawson33%
Stefan Mols33%
Josh Woods33%
Donald Love0%
Seamus Conneely0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Farrend Rawson33%
Donald Love33%
Seamus Conneely33%
Joseph Anderson33%
Tom Moore33%
Josh Woods33%
Louie Moulden0%
Charlie Caton0%
Stefan Mols0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stefan Mols33%
Farrend Rawson0%
Donald Love0%
Seamus Conneely0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
Josh Woods0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Woods67%
Charlie Caton33%
Alex Henderson33%
Farrend Rawson0%
Donald Love0%
Seamus Conneely0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Stefan Mols0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Cheltenham · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ryan Broom67%
Charlie McCann33%
Ben Stevenson0%
Jordan Shipley0%
Joseph Tomlinson0%
Robbie Cundy0%
Jake Bickerstaff0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joseph Tomlinson33%
Jake Bickerstaff33%
Jonathan Tomkinson33%
Ben Stevenson0%
Ryan Broom0%
Jordan Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
Charlie McCann0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joseph Tomlinson33%
Ben Stevenson0%
Ryan Broom0%
Jordan Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
Jake Bickerstaff0%
Charlie McCann0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joseph Tomlinson33%
Charlie McCann33%
Ben Stevenson0%
Ryan Broom0%
Jordan Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
Jake Bickerstaff0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (24)
€15m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
Accrington and Cheltenham have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (8)
€5m
BRA (9)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Accrington and Cheltenham have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (6)
€7m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Accrington and Cheltenham have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Accrington and Cheltenham have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Doncaster
Port Vale
Bradford
Walsall
AFC Wimbledon
Notts County
Chesterfield
Salford
Grimsby
Colchester
Bromley
Swindon
Crewe
Fleetwood Town
Barrow
Gillingham
Harrogate
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
Newport County
Carlisle
Morecambe