Accrington vs Crewe Result & Analysis

The contest between Accrington and Crewe is a razor-thin affair, with the model favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly low-scoring match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.7% chance. Accrington, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Crewe, on the road, averages 0.93 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 41% for a home win, 29% for a draw, and 30% for an away win.

The model’s selections include: Over 19.5 fouls at 84.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 80.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 74.7%, Under 3.5 goals at 73.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 72.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 71.5%, and Under 11.5 corners at 70.8%. Each of these picks carries its own probability and is presented as an independent selection.

The pre-match favourite, Accrington, failed to deliver, as Crewe snatched a 1-0 away win. The model had tipped a home win with a 41% probability, but its call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away victory. The model’s other selections were mixed: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 84%, Under 3.5 goals hit at 73.4%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 72.9%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 71.5%, and Under 11.5 corners hit at 70.8%. Over 2.5 cards and Over 1.5 goals missed, with probabilities of 80.9% and 74.7% respectively. Accrington’s recent form shows a draw, while Crewe also came off a draw, yet the latter turned the tide to secure the win.