This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swindon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.67
1.47
1.60
1.13
1.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.35
1.62
1.46
1.46
1.23
1.77
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
2.67
1.50
2.50
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.7%
Under 1.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.9%
@ 2.02+7.2%
Under 2.5
46.1%
@ 1.77-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.6%
Under 3.5
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
7.9%
1-2
7.6%
0-0
7.0%
2-0
7.0%
0-1
6.4%
2-2 ✓
5.8%
Accrington goals ↓
Swindon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
6.4%
4.9%
2.1%
0.7%
1
7.9%
13%
7.6%
3.3%
1.1%
2
7.0%
9.0%
5.8%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.6%
4.6%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.4%
1.8%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Accrington goals (down), columns = Swindon goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Doncaster
1.83
Port Vale
1.74
Bradford
1.70
Walsall
1.67
AFC Wimbledon
1.59
Notts County
1.57
Chesterfield
1.52
Salford
1.50
Grimsby
1.48
Colchester
1.46
Bromley
1.43
Swindon
1.35
Crewe
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
Barrow
1.28
Gillingham
1.26
Harrogate
1.15
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Tranmere
1.11
Accrington
1.09
Newport County
1.07
Carlisle
0.91
Morecambe
0.78
Accrington is 0.26 points worse than Swindon in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Walsall
1.63
Doncaster
1.59
Chesterfield
1.59
Swindon
1.54
Notts County
1.48
Port Vale
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Bradford
1.39
Salford
1.39
Grimsby
1.33
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
AFC Wimbledon
1.22
Accrington
1.15
Colchester
1.13
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Newport County
1.13
Barrow
1.13
Crewe
1.07
Tranmere
0.98
Carlisle
0.96
Harrogate
0.93
Gillingham
0.89
Morecambe
0.87
Accrington is 0.39 goals worse than Swindon in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.54).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
AFC Wimbledon
0.76
Bradford
0.98
Port Vale
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Colchester
1.02
Crewe
1.04
Notts County
1.07
Doncaster
1.09
Barrow
1.09
Walsall
1.17
Salford
1.17
Chesterfield
1.17
Bromley
1.28
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Harrogate
1.33
Swindon
1.37
Tranmere
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.43
Grimsby
1.46
Accrington
1.50
Cheltenham
1.52
Carlisle
1.54
Morecambe
1.57
Newport County
1.65
Accrington is 0.13 goals worse than Swindon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
62%
Chesterfield
61%
Milton Keynes Dons
60%
Carlisle
53%
Swindon
52%
Salford
52%
Doncaster
52%
Tranmere
52%
Colchester
51%
Port Vale
51%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
AFC Wimbledon
49%
Gillingham
49%
Grimsby
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Barrow
47%
Newport County
47%
Cheltenham
45%
Morecambe
45%
Accrington
45%
Walsall
44%
Harrogate
43%
Bromley
42%
Accrington is 7.3 percentage points worse than Swindon in terms of average possession (45% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Accrington
For 3.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.3 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 10.7 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Swindon
For 4.1 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 11.3 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Accrington
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
11.3
9.0
3.7
3.2
4.1
24.7
23.8
25.6
vs Stronger (13)
9.2
11.8
7.9
4.2
2.2
5.0
27.8
27.5
27.9
vs Similar (36)
10.4
11.3
9.4
3.6
3.4
3.8
23.7
23.0
24.6
vs Weaker (1)
11.0
-
11.0
2.0
-
2.0
23.0
-
23.0
% over line
60%
78%
44%
48%
35%
59%
71%
61%
80%
% under line
40%
22%
56%
52%
65%
41%
29%
39%
20%
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swindon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.3
10.1
3.2
2.9
3.6
20.6
20.0
21.1
vs Stronger (3)
13.0
12.5
14.0
2.7
3.0
2.0
19.7
18.5
22.0
vs Similar (43)
9.9
9.7
10.0
3.2
2.7
3.7
20.5
19.8
21.0
vs Weaker (4)
12.0
12.7
10.0
3.8
4.0
3.0
22.5
22.3
23.0
% over line
60%
58%
62%
34%
28%
40%
44%
38%
50%
% under line
40%
42%
38%
66%
72%
60%
56%
62%
50%
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fleetwood Town
11.3
Tranmere
11.1
Bromley
10.9
Harrogate
10.9
Port Vale
10.9
Notts County
10.8
Morecambe
10.7
Doncaster
10.6
Grimsby
10.4
Swindon
10.3
Walsall
10.3
Bradford
10.3
Crewe
10.2
Accrington
10.1
Chesterfield
10.0
Colchester
9.9
Salford
9.8
Cheltenham
9.8
Carlisle
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Gillingham
9.5
Barrow
9.4
AFC Wimbledon
9.1
Milton Keynes Dons
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Salford
4.6
Bradford
4.5
Colchester
4.4
AFC Wimbledon
4.4
Crewe
4.4
Barrow
4.3
Tranmere
4.3
Notts County
4.3
Doncaster
4.2
Cheltenham
4.2
Gillingham
4.2
Port Vale
4.2
Milton Keynes Dons
4.1
Morecambe
4.1
Fleetwood Town
4.0
Chesterfield
3.9
Accrington
3.9
Grimsby
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Newport County
3.6
Carlisle
3.6
Swindon
3.3
Harrogate
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cheltenham
24.8
Accrington
24.7
Grimsby
23.8
Salford
23.7
AFC Wimbledon
23.6
Chesterfield
23.5
Doncaster
23.4
Bradford
23.3
Milton Keynes Dons
23.3
Bromley
23.1
Barrow
22.8
Crewe
22.5
Newport County
22.4
Colchester
22.2
Morecambe
22.0
Fleetwood Town
21.7
Walsall
21.5
Gillingham
21.3
Port Vale
20.9
Carlisle
20.7
Swindon
20.6
Tranmere
20.3
Notts County
20.3
Harrogate
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.1%
Under 9.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.4%
Under 3.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
49.2%
Under 21.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Accrington
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.69
0.62
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.56
0.50
2.50
0.29
1.29
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.50
0.73
0.27
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swindon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Accrington over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Accrington
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.00
0.54
0.69
0.94
1.24
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
0.56
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.71
vs Similar (20)
0.70
1.15
0.55
0.82
0.89
1.56
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swindon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.00
0.80
0.87
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.85
1.00
0.85
0.85
0.85
1.15
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Accrington over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Accrington · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Farrend Rawson33%
Stefan Mols33%
Josh Woods33%
Donald Love0%
Seamus Conneely0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Farrend Rawson33%
Donald Love33%
Seamus Conneely33%
Joseph Anderson33%
Tom Moore33%
Josh Woods33%
Louie Moulden0%
Charlie Caton0%
Stefan Mols0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stefan Mols33%
Farrend Rawson0%
Donald Love0%
Seamus Conneely0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
Josh Woods0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Woods67%
Charlie Caton33%
Alex Henderson33%
Farrend Rawson0%
Donald Love0%
Seamus Conneely0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Stefan Mols0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Swindon · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aaron Drinan33%
Ollie Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
Connor Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
Stephan Negru0%
Ben Middlemas0%
Louis Millard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Connor Ripley33%
Ollie Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
Aaron Drinan0%
Stephan Negru0%
Ben Middlemas0%
Louis Millard0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stephan Negru33%
Ollie Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
Connor Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
Aaron Drinan0%
Ben Middlemas0%
Louis Millard0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aaron Drinan33%
Ollie Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
Connor Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
Stephan Negru0%
Ben Middlemas0%
Louis Millard0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (24)
€15m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
Accrington's squad is €1m less valuable than Swindon's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (8)
€5m
BRA (9)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Accrington's attack is €1m less valuable than Swindon's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (6)
€7m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Accrington and Swindon have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Accrington and Swindon have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Doncaster
Port Vale
Bradford
Walsall
AFC Wimbledon
Notts County
Chesterfield
Salford
Grimsby
Colchester
Bromley
Crewe
Fleetwood Town
Cheltenham
Barrow
Gillingham
Harrogate
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
Newport County
Carlisle
Morecambe