Alaves are tipped to win this La Liga encounter, with a 47% chance of victory against Getafeâs 24% chance of triumph and a 29% chance of a draw. The model expects a modest 2.4 goals in total, most likely a 2-goal game, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.9%. Alaves, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded, while Getafe, on the road, scores 1.1 and concedes 1.1 against similar teams. The suggested picks are: Over 19.5 fouls93.3%, Over 2.5 cards91.5%, Over 21.5 fouls86.0%, Over 3.5 cards80.5%, Under 3.578.1%, Under 11.5 corners75.5%, Over 23.5 fouls74.9%, and Over 1.570.2%. Alaves entered the match on a winning streak, having beaten Villarreal 1-0, while Getafe had just lost 0-1 to Osasuna after two straight defeats.
Results analysis
The modelâs prediction proved accurate as Alaves secured a 1-0 win, extending their winning streak after a recent victory over Villarreal. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 47% probability and was correct. The most likely total of 2 goals fell short, but the 1-0 result still matched the favoured outcome. Every suggested selection was settled: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 93.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 91.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 86.0%, Over 3.5 cards at 80.5%, Under 3.5 at 78.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 75.5%, Over 23.5 fouls at 74.9%, and Over 1.5 missed at 70.2%. All figures were reported once, with probabilities expressed as percentages.
đŻ 1. Model Analysis
Alaves winâ Hit
46.5%
Avg Implied 46.3% · @ 2.07
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.19
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Getafe winâ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied 23.7% · @ 4.04
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
✠2. Goal Analysis
Alaves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.20
1.13
0.93
0.80
1.47
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.54
0.83
1.17
0.57
1.86
vs Similar (17)
1.18
0.94
1.33
0.78
1.00
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Getafe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Getafe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.33
1.00
1.20
1.20
1.47
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
1.82
0.33
1.50
1.40
2.20
vs Similar (19)
1.26
1.05
1.44
1.00
1.10
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.2%
Under 1.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.7%
@ 2.51+4.7%
Under 2.5
57.3%
@ 1.54-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.9%
Under 3.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.2%
No
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0 â
11.8%
0-0
10.4%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
6.1%
3-0
4.4%
Alaves goals ↓
Getafe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.6%
4.2%
1.4%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
6.1%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.0%
4.3%
1.4%
0.3%
3
4.4%
4.3%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alaves goals (down), columns = Getafe goals (across).
đȘ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
đ Total PPG
Points / game
Real Madrid
2.50
Barcelona
2.24
Girona
2.13
Atletico Madrid
2.00
Athletic Club
1.79
Real Sociedad
1.58
Real Betis
1.50
Villarreal
1.39
Valencia
1.29
Alaves
1.21
Osasuna
1.18
Getafe
1.13
Celta Vigo
1.08
Sevilla
1.08
Mallorca
1.05
Las Palmas
1.05
Rayo Vallecano
1.00
Cadiz
0.87
Granada CF
0.55
Almeria
0.55
Alaves is 0.08 points better than Getafe in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.13).
âïž Attack
Goals scored / game
Real Madrid
2.29
Girona
2.24
Barcelona
2.08
Atletico Madrid
1.84
Villarreal
1.71
Athletic Club
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.34
Real Betis
1.26
Sevilla
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.21
Osasuna
1.18
Almeria
1.13
Getafe
1.11
Valencia
1.05
Granada CF
1.00
Alaves
0.95
Mallorca
0.87
Las Palmas
0.87
Rayo Vallecano
0.76
Cadiz
0.68
Alaves is 0.16 goals worse than Getafe in terms of goals scored per game (0.95 vs 1.11).
đĄïž Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.68
Athletic Club
0.97
Real Sociedad
1.03
Atletico Madrid
1.13
Mallorca
1.16
Barcelona
1.16
Valencia
1.18
Real Betis
1.18
Girona
1.21
Alaves
1.21
Las Palmas
1.24
Rayo Vallecano
1.26
Getafe
1.42
Sevilla
1.42
Cadiz
1.45
Osasuna
1.47
Celta Vigo
1.50
Villarreal
1.71
Almeria
1.97
Granada CF
2.08
Alaves is 0.21 goals better than Getafe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.42).
â±ïž Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
65%
Las Palmas
60%
Real Madrid
59%
Girona
57%
Real Sociedad
56%
Atletico Madrid
51%
Real Betis
50%
Sevilla
50%
Athletic Club
50%
Villarreal
50%
Rayo Vallecano
49%
Osasuna
47%
Celta Vigo
46%
Almeria
46%
Granada CF
46%
Getafe
45%
Mallorca
45%
Valencia
44%
Cadiz
43%
Alaves
41%
Alaves is 3.4 percentage points worse than Getafe in terms of average possession (41% vs 45%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
đ„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïž 7. Handicap
â±ïž 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.47
0.47
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
0.77
0.50
0.50
0.14
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.53
0.44
0.44
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Getafe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Getafe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.80
0.67
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.91
0.33
1.00
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.68
1.11
0.44
0.60
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Getafe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Getafe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Getafe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
â±ïž 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.67
0.47
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.77
0.33
0.67
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.41
0.89
0.33
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Getafe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Getafe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.20
0.53
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.91
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.40
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.37
0.33
0.56
0.50
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Getafe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Getafe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Getafe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đ° 14. Squad value
đ° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
GIR (28)
€114m
GET (24)
€90m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
LP (27)
€30m
CAD (29)
€27m
GC (18)
€17m
Alaves's squad is €22m less valuable than Getafe's (€68m vs €90m).
âïž Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
GIR (12)
€64m
CV (9)
€57m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ALM (11)
€38m
GET (5)
€36m
RV (10)
€30m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
MAL (11)
€23m
LP (12)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
GC (5)
€6m
Alaves's attack is €12m less valuable than Getafe's (€24m vs €36m).
đ§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
GIR (7)
€28m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
OSA (4)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€9m
ALM (4)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
Alaves's midfield is €6m less valuable than Getafe's (€22m vs €28m).
đĄïž Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
GET (13)
€26m
GIR (9)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
GC (10)
€9m
Alaves's defence is €4m less valuable than Getafe's (€22m vs €26m).
Spain: La Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →