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Aluminij vs Brinje-Grosuplje Result & Analysis

Date: 12/05/2025
Time: 15:30
Final 4-2
Aluminij
Aluminij
Vs
54%
25%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Brinje-Grosuplje
Brinje-Grosuplje
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aluminij win✓ Hit
54.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje win✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-523L30W02L50W21W21W10W41W00D40WA·TAB09/03H·BIL15/03A·KRK22/03H·TOL28/03A·DEK05/04H·DRA12/04A·SLO18/04A·ILI26/04H·GOR02/05A·BEL06/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.900.971.870.801.931.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.931.071.711.142.121.00
vs Weaker (15)1.870.872.000.501.711.29
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L01L22D40W33D10W01L10W40W60WA·RUD08/03H·TRI16/03A·BIS21/03H·NŠ 29/03A·TAB05/04H·BIL12/04A·KRK19/04H·TOL25/04H·DEK03/05H·DRA07/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.031.880.501.711.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.081.541.000.571.172.67
vs Weaker (17)2.350.652.560.442.120.88
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.7%
Under 1.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.1%
Under 2.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.8%
Under 3.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.5%
1-0
9.4%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
5.9%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.7%
Aluminij goals ↓
Brinje-Grosuplje goals →
01234
06.9%4.9%3.1%1.1%0.3%
19.4%12%5.7%2.0%0.5%
29.5%9.9%5.1%1.8%0.5%
35.7%5.9%3.1%1.1%0.3%
42.6%2.7%1.4%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aluminij goals (down), columns = Brinje-Grosuplje goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Aluminij
2.13
Triglav
2.10
Gorica
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.83
Tabor Sežana
1.80
Bistrica
1.70
Dravinja
1.50
Krka
1.27
Beltinci
1.10
Bilje
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.10
Dekani
1.07
Rudar
1.07
Ilirija
0.87
Tolmin
0.73
NŠ Drava
0.67
Aluminij is 0.30 points better than Brinje-Grosuplje in terms of average points per game (2.13 vs 1.83).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Gorica
2.00
Bistrica
2.00
Aluminij
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.93
Tabor Sežana
1.90
Beltinci
1.33
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.17
Slovan Ljubljana
1.13
Dekani
1.07
Ilirija
0.93
Krka
0.93
Rudar
0.90
Tolmin
0.87
NŠ Drava
0.73
Aluminij is 0.03 goals better than Brinje-Grosuplje in terms of goals scored per game (1.97 vs 1.93).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Aluminij
0.93
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.03
Krka
1.07
Triglav
1.10
Gorica
1.13
Tabor Sežana
1.17
Dravinja
1.20
Bistrica
1.27
Slovan Ljubljana
1.30
Rudar
1.47
Bilje
1.50
Beltinci
1.60
Ilirija
1.63
Dekani
1.87
Tolmin
2.07
NŠ Drava
2.17
Aluminij is 0.10 goals better than Brinje-Grosuplje in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 1.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AluminijAluminij

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L10W01L30W20W21W00D11D00D20WA·TAB09/03H·BIL15/03A·KRK22/03H·TOL28/03A·DEK05/04H·DRA12/04A·SLO18/04A·ILI26/04H·GOR02/05A·BEL06/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.600.800.600.930.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.870.730.570.861.120.62
vs Weaker (15)0.870.471.000.380.710.57
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L11D20W20W10W01L00D20W20WA·RUD08/03H·TRI16/03A·BIS21/03H·NŠ 29/03A·TAB05/04H·BIL12/04A·KRK19/04H·TOL25/04H·DEK03/05H·DRA07/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.570.750.381.070.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.620.770.430.430.831.17
vs Weaker (17)1.120.411.000.331.250.50
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AluminijAluminij

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W20W01L20W01L00D10W30W00D20WA·TAB09/03H·BIL15/03A·KRK22/03H·TOL28/03A·DEK05/04H·DRA12/04A·SLO18/04A·ILI26/04H·GOR02/05A·BEL06/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.371.070.201.000.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.070.331.140.291.000.38
vs Weaker (15)1.000.401.000.121.000.71
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L00D11D20W13L00D00D10W20W40WA·RUD08/03H·TRI16/03A·BIS21/03H·NŠ 29/03A·TAB05/04H·BIL12/04A·KRK19/04H·TOL25/04H·DEK03/05H·DRA07/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.471.120.120.640.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.460.770.570.140.331.50
vs Weaker (17)1.240.241.560.110.880.38
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
Aluminij and Brinje-Grosuplje have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
Aluminij and Brinje-Grosuplje have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
Aluminij and Brinje-Grosuplje have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Aluminij and Brinje-Grosuplje have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
ALU wins
0
Draws
1
BRI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aluminij vs Brinje-Grosuplje · H/A from ALU
DateH/AGameScore
03/11/24ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs ALU1-0
11/03/23ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs ALU0-2
26/08/22HALU Vs Brinje-Grosuplje1-0

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/25ABeltinci Vs ALU0-4
02/05/25HALU Vs Gorica0-0
26/04/25AIlirija Vs ALU1-4
18/04/25ASlovan Ljubljana Vs ALU0-1
12/04/25HALU Vs Dravinja2-1
05/04/25ADekani Vs ALU1-2
28/03/25HALU Vs Tolmin5-0
22/03/25AKrka Vs ALU2-0
15/03/25HALU Vs Bilje3-0
09/03/25ATabor Sežana Vs ALU3-2

Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/25HBRI Vs Dravinja6-0
03/05/25HBRI Vs Dekani4-0
25/04/25HBRI Vs Tolmin1-0
19/04/25AKrka Vs BRI1-0
12/04/25HBRI Vs Bilje1-0
05/04/25ATabor Sežana Vs BRI3-3
29/03/25HBRI Vs NŠ Drava4-0
21/03/25ABistrica Vs BRI2-2
16/03/25HBRI Vs Triglav0-1
08/03/25ARudar Vs BRI2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aluminij
Aluminij
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW1.56
HomeWWWWD1.64
AwayLWWWW1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%48%44%
AVG goals2.922.803.04
Over 1.5 %82%88%76%
Over 2.5 %56%56%56%
Over 3.5 %34%28%40%
Scored1.461.481.44
Conceded1.461.321.60
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners10.208.7113.67
Cards4.704.864.33
Brinje-Grosuplje
Brinje-Grosuplje
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.72
HomeWWWWW2.04
AwayWLDDL1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%60%36%
AVG goals2.802.443.16
Over 1.5 %80%72%88%
Over 2.5 %44%40%48%
Over 3.5 %30%24%36%
Scored1.701.721.68
Conceded1.100.721.48
BTTS50%44%56%
Clean Sheet34%48%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AluminijAluminij3064
67%
2.1
5928+31
2.9
83%
60%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.00.9
-
2TriglavTriglav3063
67%
2.1
7233+39
3.5
80%
60%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.41.1
-
3GoricaGorica3059
57%
2.0
6034+26
3.1
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.1
-
4Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3055
53%
1.8
5831+27
3.0
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.0
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3054
47%
1.8
5735+22
3.1
80%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.2
-
6BistricaBistrica3051
43%
1.7
6038+22
3.3
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.3
-
7DravinjaDravinja3045
43%
1.5
3736+1
2.4
63%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.2
-
8KrkaKrka3038
33%
1.3
2832-4
2.0
63%
37%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.1
-
9Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3033
27%
1.1
3439-5
2.4
80%
40%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.3
-
10BeltinciBeltinci3033
30%
1.1
4048-8
2.9
87%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.6
-
11BiljeBilje3033
27%
1.1
3545-10
2.7
67%
43%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.5
-
12RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
2744-17
2.4
70%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0100.91.5
-
13DekaniDekani3032
30%
1.1
3256-24
2.9
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.9
-
14IlirijaIlirija3026
17%
0.9
2849-21
2.6
67%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.91.6
-
15TolminTolmin3022
20%
0.7
2662-36
2.9
77%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
16NŠ DravaNŠ Drava3020
17%
0.7
2265-43
2.9
77%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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