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Aluminij vs Tolmin Result & Analysis

Date: 28/03/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 5-0
Aluminij
Aluminij
Vs
62%
24%
14%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tolmin
Tolmin
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aluminij win✓ Hit
62.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tolmin win✗ Miss
14.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D21W01L20W41W11D10W23L30W02LA·GOR20/10H·BEL25/10A·BRI03/11H·RUD09/11A·TRI16/11A·BIS27/11H·NŠ 28/02A·TAB09/03H·BIL15/03A·KRK22/03
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.431.571.001.381.81
vs Stronger (1)2.002.00--2.002.00
vs Similar (18)1.281.721.141.571.361.82
vs Weaker (11)1.730.912.000.431.251.75
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TolminTolmin

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L10W24L11D13L02L10W11D20W05LA·RUD18/10H·TRI26/10A·BIS02/11H·NŠ 09/11A·TAB16/11A·BIL23/11H·KRK01/03A·SLO09/03A·DEK15/03H·DRA22/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.471.001.130.931.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.971.471.001.130.931.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.1%
Under 1.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.6%
Under 2.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.6%
Under 3.5
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.8%
No
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.2%
1-0
11.8%
1-1
11.2%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
7.7%
3-0
7.7%
3-1
6.2%
0-1
4.3%
Aluminij goals ↓
Tolmin goals →
01234
07.7%4.3%2.1%0.6%0.1%
112%11%4.1%1.1%0.2%
212%9.7%3.9%1.0%0.2%
37.7%6.2%2.5%0.7%0.1%
43.7%2.9%1.2%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aluminij goals (down), columns = Tolmin goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Aluminij
2.13
Triglav
2.10
Gorica
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.83
Tabor Sežana
1.80
Bistrica
1.70
Dravinja
1.50
Krka
1.27
Beltinci
1.10
Bilje
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.10
Dekani
1.07
Rudar
1.07
Ilirija
0.87
Tolmin
0.73
NŠ Drava
0.67
Aluminij is 1.40 points better than Tolmin in terms of average points per game (2.13 vs 0.73).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Gorica
2.00
Bistrica
2.00
Aluminij
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.93
Tabor Sežana
1.90
Beltinci
1.33
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.17
Slovan Ljubljana
1.13
Dekani
1.07
Ilirija
0.93
Krka
0.93
Rudar
0.90
Tolmin
0.87
NŠ Drava
0.73
Aluminij is 1.10 goals better than Tolmin in terms of goals scored per game (1.97 vs 0.87).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Aluminij
0.93
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.03
Krka
1.07
Triglav
1.10
Gorica
1.13
Tabor Sežana
1.17
Dravinja
1.20
Bistrica
1.27
Slovan Ljubljana
1.30
Rudar
1.47
Bilje
1.50
Beltinci
1.60
Ilirija
1.63
Dekani
1.87
Tolmin
2.07
NŠ Drava
2.17
Aluminij is 1.13 goals better than Tolmin in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 2.07).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AluminijAluminij

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D01L00D21W11D10W02L10W01LA·GOR20/10H·BEL25/10A·BRI03/11H·RUD09/11A·TRI16/11A·BIS27/11H·NŠ 28/02A·TAB09/03H·BIL15/03A·KRK22/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.700.570.640.750.75
vs Stronger (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
vs Similar (18)0.560.830.291.000.730.73
vs Weaker (11)0.730.450.860.290.500.75
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TolminTolmin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D13L11D02L01L00D10W10W03LA·RUD18/10H·TRI26/10A·BIS02/11H·NŠ 09/11A·TAB16/11A·BIL23/11H·KRK01/03A·SLO09/03A·DEK15/03H·DRA22/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.830.530.530.401.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.470.830.530.530.401.13
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AluminijAluminij

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W00D20W20W00D00D21W20W01LA·GOR20/10H·BEL25/10A·BRI03/11H·RUD09/11A·TRI16/11A·BIS27/11H·NŠ 28/02A·TAB09/03H·BIL15/03A·KRK22/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.731.000.360.621.06
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (18)0.720.890.860.570.641.09
vs Weaker (11)1.000.451.140.140.751.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TolminTolmin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W11D00D11D01L10W01L10W02LA·RUD18/10H·TRI26/10A·BIS02/11H·NŠ 09/11A·TAB16/11A·BIL23/11H·KRK01/03A·SLO09/03A·DEK15/03H·DRA22/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.630.470.600.530.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.500.630.470.600.530.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
ALU wins
0
Draws
0
TOL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aluminij vs Tolmin · H/A from ALU
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/24ATolmin Vs ALU0-1

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/03/25AKrka Vs ALU2-0
15/03/25HALU Vs Bilje3-0
09/03/25ATabor Sežana Vs ALU3-2
28/02/25HALU Vs NŠ Drava1-0
27/11/24ABistrica Vs ALU1-1
16/11/24ATriglav Vs ALU1-4
09/11/24HALU Vs Rudar2-0
03/11/24ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs ALU1-0
25/10/24HALU Vs Beltinci2-1
20/10/24AGorica Vs ALU1-1

TolminTolmin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/03/25HTOL Vs Dravinja0-5
15/03/25ADekani Vs TOL0-2
09/03/25ASlovan Ljubljana Vs TOL1-1
01/03/25HTOL Vs Krka1-0
23/11/24ABilje Vs TOL2-0
16/11/24ATabor Sežana Vs TOL3-1
09/11/24HTOL Vs NŠ Drava1-1
02/11/24ABistrica Vs TOL4-2
26/10/24HTOL Vs Triglav1-0
18/10/24ARudar Vs TOL2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aluminij
Aluminij
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWL1.32
HomeWWWWW1.48
AwayLWDLL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%44%32%
AVG goals2.862.723.00
Over 1.5 %82%88%76%
Over 2.5 %54%52%56%
Over 3.5 %32%24%40%
Scored1.241.281.20
Conceded1.621.441.80
BTTS56%56%56%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners10.209.0011.57
Cards5.075.384.71
Tolmin
Tolmin
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWL1.04
HomeWWDWL1.32
AwayLLLDW0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%36%16%
AVG goals2.582.522.64
Over 1.5 %72%68%76%
Over 2.5 %50%52%48%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.041.160.92
Conceded1.541.361.72
BTTS50%44%56%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AluminijAluminij3064
67%
2.1
5928+31
2.9
83%
60%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.00.9
-
2TriglavTriglav3063
67%
2.1
7233+39
3.5
80%
60%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.41.1
-
3GoricaGorica3059
57%
2.0
6034+26
3.1
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.1
-
4Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3055
53%
1.8
5831+27
3.0
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.0
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3054
47%
1.8
5735+22
3.1
80%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.2
-
6BistricaBistrica3051
43%
1.7
6038+22
3.3
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.3
-
7DravinjaDravinja3045
43%
1.5
3736+1
2.4
63%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.2
-
8KrkaKrka3038
33%
1.3
2832-4
2.0
63%
37%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.1
-
9Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3033
27%
1.1
3439-5
2.4
80%
40%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.3
-
10BeltinciBeltinci3033
30%
1.1
4048-8
2.9
87%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.6
-
11BiljeBilje3033
27%
1.1
3545-10
2.7
67%
43%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.5
-
12RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
2744-17
2.4
70%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0100.91.5
-
13DekaniDekani3032
30%
1.1
3256-24
2.9
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.9
-
14IlirijaIlirija3026
17%
0.9
2849-21
2.6
67%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.91.6
-
15TolminTolmin3022
20%
0.7
2662-36
2.9
77%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
16NŠ DravaNŠ Drava3020
17%
0.7
2265-43
2.9
77%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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