Alverca’s defensive record at home shows a modest 1.3 goals conceded per match, while Santa Clara’s away form sees them surrendering 1.09 goals on average, suggesting a tight contest. The model favours a home win, with a 36% chance, followed by a 32% draw and a 32% away win. The expected total goals hover at 2.2, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.7% probability. Alverca’s average home scoring of 1.4 goals aligns with the model’s 1-1 prediction, whereas Santa Clara’s 1.0 away goal average supports a low-scoring outcome. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3% with a 6% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.7% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.5% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.0% with a 5% edge), and Under 5.5 (96.8% with a 2% edge). The match is poised for a low-scoring draw or a narrow home victory.
Results analysis
The draw surprised everyone, as the pre-match favourite was Alverca with a 38% chance of victory. The model’s call was wrong, and the match finished 1-1, a result that extended both sides’ recent streaks of draws. The prediction that the total would be 2 goals came true, but the 2.3 expected total was not reached. Every suggested pick turned out to be a hit: Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.0%), Under 5.5 (96.8%) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.3%). All probabilities were expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Alverca win✗ Miss
37.8%
Avg Implied 35.3% · @ 2.66
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.80
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.73
Pinnacle
2.72
Betano
2.70
Draw✓ Hit
31.1%
Avg Implied 31.2% · @ 3.00
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.15
Dafabet
3.10
Unibet
3.10
1xBet
3.06
Superbet
3.05
Santa Clara win✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied 33.5% · @ 2.80
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.98
1xBet
2.95
Betano
2.92
Dafabet
2.90
Bet365
2.88
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Alverca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.63
1.14
1.43
0.81
1.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
2.75
0.50
3.50
0.33
2.50
vs Similar (18)
1.33
1.39
1.40
1.30
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Santa Clara
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.17
1.25
1.06
0.93
1.29
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.75
1.20
1.60
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.14
0.95
1.27
0.82
1.00
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Alverca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.8%
@ 1.47+4.0%
Under 1.5
32.2%
@ 2.59-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
Under
10Bet
2.80
Unibet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.68
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.62
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.9%
@ 2.46+1.4%
Under 2.5
60.1%
@ 1.54-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.61
1xBet
2.58
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Marathonbet
2.50
Under
10Bet
1.62
Unibet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.7%
@ 4.76+0.0%
Under 3.5
80.3%
@ 1.17-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
5.19
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.5%
@ 2.00+1.1%
No
52.5%
@ 1.73-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.07
BetVictor
2.05
Bet365
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
No
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.78
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.6%@ 5.61+6.6%
0-0
11.5%@ 6.88+5.0%
1-0
11.0%@ 6.48+4.1%
0-1
9.6%@ 6.67+2.9%
2-1
8.0%@ 9.81+3.4%
2-0
7.5%@ 11.36+3.5%
1-2
7.1%@ 10.11+2.7%
0-2
5.9%@ 11.88+2.1%
Alverca goals ↓
Santa Clara goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.6%
5.9%
2.1%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.7%
2
7.5%
8.0%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.0%
3.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alverca goals (down), columns = Santa Clara goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Alverca is 0.09 points better than Santa Clara in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Alverca is 0.09 goals better than Santa Clara in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Alverca is 0.32 goals worse than Santa Clara in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Alverca is 3.6 percentage points worse than Santa Clara in terms of average possession (45% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Alverca
For 5.1 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 12.5 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Santa Clara
For 4.0 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 13.8 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alverca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
7.7
9.8
4.3
4.2
4.3
23.4
25.5
21.6
vs Stronger (10)
7.5
5.5
8.8
4.2
4.8
3.8
23.9
23.2
24.3
vs Similar (24)
9.1
8.3
10.0
4.9
4.5
5.3
26.9
28.8
24.8
vs Weaker (16)
9.6
8.2
11.0
3.5
3.4
3.6
16.9
20.0
14.7
% over line
46%
26%
65%
60%
62%
58%
63%
70%
57%
% under line
54%
74%
35%
40%
38%
42%
37%
30%
43%
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Santa Clara
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.0
9.0
5.2
6.0
4.3
30.2
32.3
27.9
vs Stronger (10)
9.6
9.2
10.0
6.6
9.2
4.0
29.1
32.6
25.6
vs Similar (40)
8.8
9.0
8.7
4.8
5.2
4.4
30.5
32.2
28.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
43%
50%
74%
73%
75%
95%
100%
90%
% under line
53%
57%
50%
26%
27%
25%
5%
0%
10%
This opponent (Alverca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.4
Rio Ave
10.4
Nacional
10.3
Benfica
10.1
Academico Viseu
9.9
Sporting CP
9.8
Casa Pia
9.7
Arouca
9.2
GIL Vicente
9.1
FC Porto
9.0
Estoril
9.0
Santa Clara
9.0
Estrela
9.0
Alverca
8.8
Guimaraes
8.6
Maritimo
8.2
SC Braga
8.2
Moreirense
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
6.0
Maritimo
5.9
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.7
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.6
Nacional
5.4
FC Porto
5.4
Famalicao
5.4
Guimaraes
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
Benfica
5.1
Sporting CP
5.1
Rio Ave
5.0
SC Braga
4.9
GIL Vicente
4.8
Alverca
4.8
Estoril
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.2
Santa Clara
30.2
Estrela
30.1
Moreirense
29.3
Casa Pia
29.1
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.8
Nacional
27.1
Rio Ave
27.0
Estoril
26.8
Sporting CP
26.2
Arouca
26.0
FC Porto
25.9
Benfica
25.6
Academico Viseu
25.1
SC Braga
24.6
Maritimo
24.1
Alverca
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
34.6%
@ 2.00-12.0%
Under 9.5
65.4%
@ 1.74+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.77
Unibet
1.76
Betano
1.72
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
71.1%
@ 1.26-3.0%
Under 3.5
28.9%
@ 3.60+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Under
Betano
3.60
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
80.5%
Under 21.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Alverca or Draw✓ Hit
60.1%
Avg Implied 66.4% · @ 1.41
Edge
-6.3%
38%
31%
31%
covers Alverca + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Alverca or Santa Clara✗ Miss
69.5%
Avg Implied 69.0% · @ 1.36
Edge
+0.5%
38%
31%
31%
covers Alverca + Santa Clara
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Draw or Santa Clara✓ Hit
70.4%
Avg Implied 64.6% · @ 1.45
Edge
+5.8%
38%
31%
31%
covers Draw + Santa Clara
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Alverca over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.5%
@ 1.40-1.1%
Under
34.5%
@ 2.79+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.97
10Bet
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.76
1xBet
2.75
Alverca over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.8%
@ 2.93-3.0%
Under
71.2%
@ 1.37+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.12
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Alverca over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.2%
@ 7.62-3.0%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.06+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.00
1xBet
7.60
Superbet
7.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Alverca over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 18.17-3.0%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Santa Clara over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.0%
@ 1.42+6.3%
Under
28.0%
@ 2.72-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Under
Unibet
2.90
10Bet
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.80
Superbet
2.70
Santa Clara over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.4%
@ 3.05+5.8%
Under
63.6%
@ 1.35-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.37
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Marathonbet
3.16
Superbet
3.10
Under
Unibet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Santa Clara over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.7%
@ 8.06+2.1%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.06-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
8.80
1xBet
8.70
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Santa Clara over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 20.00-0.8%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.01+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Alverca, so a minus line means Alverca give that many goals of a start and Santa Clara receive them. At -1, Alverca must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Alverca win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Alverca)Actual: Santa Clara
Alverca -2
3.5%
@ 14.50-2.7%
Draw -2
8.4%
@ 7.80-3.2%
Santa Clara +2
88.1%
@ 1.10+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
13.00
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Away
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Handicap -1 (Alverca)Actual: Santa Clara
Alverca -1
11.9%
@ 5.92-3.3%
Draw -1
17.7%
@ 4.11-4.3%
Santa Clara +1
70.4%
@ 1.44+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.80
10Bet
5.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Away
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Handicap +1 (Alverca)Actual: Alverca
Alverca +1
60.1%
@ 1.43-2.9%
Draw +1
21.4%
@ 4.10-0.5%
Santa Clara -1
18.5%
@ 5.97+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Away
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Superbet
5.80
10Bet
5.50
Handicap +2 (Alverca)Actual: Alverca
Alverca +2
81.5%
@ 1.10+1.0%
Draw +2
12.0%
@ 7.14-0.4%
Santa Clara -2
6.4%
@ 12.64-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.50
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
7.20
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alverca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.63
0.21
0.43
0.25
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.38
0.00
1.00
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.44
0.30
0.40
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Santa Clara
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.62
0.56
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.12
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.50
0.73
0.36
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Alverca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
66.6%
@ 1.52+5.2%
Under 0.5
33.4%
@ 2.42-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
Under
10Bet
2.65
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.45
William Hil
2.45
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.3%
@ 3.39+2.8%
Under 1.5
69.7%
@ 1.29-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.65
Superbet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Under
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.29
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.5%
@ 9.51-0.3%
Under 2.5
90.5%
@ 1.04+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
William Hil
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
9.90
Marathonbet
9.50
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
William Hil
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alverca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.9%
@ 2.33+1.0%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.55-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.45
Superbet
2.40
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Under
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.51
Alverca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 8.16-1.3%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.05+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
9.30
Superbet
7.90
Betano
7.30
10Bet
7.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Alverca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 31.00-98.4%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
31.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.9%
@ 2.39+3.0%
Under
58.1%
@ 1.53-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.58
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.46
Superbet
2.40
Under
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Santa Clara over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 8.71+2.3%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.04-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Superbet
8.20
Betano
7.90
10Bet
7.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Santa Clara over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 23.25-1.7%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alverca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.00
0.93
1.00
0.56
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.38
0.50
2.50
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.94
1.10
0.90
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Santa Clara
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.62
0.50
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.62
0.80
0.60
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.45
0.55
0.45
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Alverca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.8%
@ 1.34+6.0%
Under 0.5
24.2%
@ 3.09-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.10
Betano
3.10
Superbet
3.05
1xBet
3.04
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
36.5%
@ 2.55-0.0%
Under 1.5
63.5%
@ 1.47+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.67
William Hil
2.62
Marathonbet
2.59
1xBet
2.59
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.4%
@ 6.16+0.3%
Under 2.5
84.6%
@ 1.10-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
6.50
Superbet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
1xBet
6.35
Bet365
6.00
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.10
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alverca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.9%
@ 1.97+1.8%
Under
51.1%
@ 1.75-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Superbet
1.72
Alverca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 5.99-2.0%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.09+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.40
Superbet
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Alverca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 15.62-2.4%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Santa Clara over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.1%
@ 2.02+9.2%
Under
44.9%
@ 1.71-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Betano
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Santa Clara over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.0%
@ 6.25+1.2%
Under
84.0%
@ 1.09-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.85
Marathonbet
6.85
Superbet
6.10
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Santa Clara over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 16.38-2.8%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.2%
1.04
10Bet
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Superbet
1.07
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.04
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
William Hil
1.05
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.9%
1.05
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
88.1%
1.10
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.08
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.04
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.6%
1.09
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.3%
1.06
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Superbet
1.06
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.9%
1.26
Unibet
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
+12.4%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.6%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.10
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
81.5%
1.10
Unibet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.3%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
76.4%
1.45
Pinnacle
1.49
Unibet
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
+12.9%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.8%
1.34
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.0%
1.42
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
71.2%
1.37
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.36
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.1%
1.26
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
-
-3.0%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
70.4%
1.45
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
70.4%
1.44
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+7.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Alverca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vivaldo50%
Ian Luccas25%
Marco Essimi0%
Nabil Touaizi0%
Matheus Mendes0%
Figueiredo0%
Steven Baseya0%
Isaac James0%
Rayan Lucas0%
Francisco Chissumba0%
Yaya Bojang0%
Samy Jr Merheg0%
Davy Gui0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Davy Gui67%
Yaya Bojang50%
Nabil Touaizi25%
Matheus Mendes25%
Figueiredo25%
Vivaldo25%
Marco Essimi0%
Ian Luccas0%
Steven Baseya0%
Isaac James0%
Rayan Lucas0%
Francisco Chissumba0%
Samy Jr Merheg0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isaac James50%
Rayan Lucas33%
Marco Essimi0%
Nabil Touaizi0%
Matheus Mendes0%
Ian Luccas0%
Figueiredo0%
Steven Baseya0%
Vivaldo0%
Francisco Chissumba0%
Yaya Bojang0%
Samy Jr Merheg0%
Davy Gui0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nabil Touaizi25%
Ian Luccas25%
Vivaldo25%
Marco Essimi0%
Matheus Mendes0%
Figueiredo0%
Steven Baseya0%
Isaac James0%
Rayan Lucas0%
Francisco Chissumba0%
Yaya Bojang0%
Samy Jr Merheg0%
Davy Gui0%
Santa Clara
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gonçalo Paciência75%
Guilherme Romão0%
Vinícius Lopes0%
Diogo Calila0%
Lucas França0%
Pedro Ferreira0%
Pedro Pacheco0%
Welinton Torrao0%
Daniel Borges0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Luis Fernando0%
José Tavares0%
Sorriso0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinícius Lopes50%
Daniel Borges33%
Emanuel Fernandes33%
Guilherme Romão25%
Pedro Pacheco25%
Sorriso25%
Gonçalo Paciência0%
Diogo Calila0%
Lucas França0%
Pedro Ferreira0%
Welinton Torrao0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Luis Fernando0%
José Tavares0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Diogo Calila25%
Welinton Torrao25%
Sorriso25%
Gonçalo Paciência0%
Guilherme Romão0%
Vinícius Lopes0%
Lucas França0%
Pedro Ferreira0%
Pedro Pacheco0%
Daniel Borges0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Luis Fernando0%
José Tavares0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gonçalo Paciência75%
Guilherme Romão0%
Vinícius Lopes0%
Diogo Calila0%
Lucas França0%
Pedro Ferreira0%
Pedro Pacheco0%
Welinton Torrao0%
Daniel Borges0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Luis Fernando0%
José Tavares0%
Sorriso0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Alverca's squad is €12m more valuable than Santa Clara's (€39m vs €27m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Alverca's attack is €6m more valuable than Santa Clara's (€15m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Alverca and Santa Clara have a similar midfield value (both €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Alverca's defence is €6m more valuable than Santa Clara's (€18m vs €12m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Estoril
Casa Pia