Anderlecht vs Genk Result & Analysis

Anderlecht are the clear favorites, with a 42% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 33% chance that Genk will win. The model predicts an average of 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 22% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 11.7% probability. Anderlecht, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, normally scores 1.5 goals and concedes 0.5, while Genk, on the road, averages 3.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The suggested picks are: Over 1.5 goals at 83.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.9% (hit), and Under 5.5 cards at 71.4% (miss). The home win percentage is 42%, the draw percentage 26%, and the away win percentage 33%. The model’s selections are the only ones that carry probabilities.

The upset came as Anderlecht, the pre-match favourite with a 42% chance of triumph, fell short, losing 0-1 to Genk. The model’s call was wrong, as the away side claimed victory. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away win. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.2% probability, missed, while Over 2.5 cards, at 81.9%, hit, and Under 5.5 cards, at 71.4%, also missed. Genk’s recent form - WDWLD and a 4-0 win over SK Beveren - helped them capitalize on Anderlecht’s shaky home run, which had just returned from a 0-3 defeat to Union St. Gilloise. The match delivered a clear reversal of expectations.