Anderlecht are clear favourites, with the model assigning a 68% chance of a home win and 21% for a draw, 11% for a Kortrijk win. The prediction favours a 2-0 scoreline, the most likely outcome at 13.2%. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most probable total of two goals at 25%. Anderlecht’s home form shows they average two goals scored and one conceded against weaker opponents, while Kortrijk, playing away against a stronger side, average only 0.33 scored and concede two. The model’s single suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.3% probability. The home side’s win probability is 68%, the draw 21%, and the away win 11%. The recent form notes that Anderlecht come off a defeat, and Kortrijk are after three straight losses.
Results analysis
Anderlecht’s recent form, a win after a defeat, set the tone for a dominant home display that extended their winning run. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct as Anderlecht triumphed 3-0, matching the predicted outcome. With a pre-match probability of 68%, the call was spot on. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with a 77.3% probability, while the most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 13.2% was eclipsed by a higher-scoring result. The match delivered on the predicted total of 2.8 goals, and the final 3-0 scoreline confirmed the model’s confidence in a decisive home victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Anderlecht win✓ Hit
67.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kortrijk win✗ Miss
11.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Anderlecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.66
1.00
1.86
0.93
1.47
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
0.83
1.33
0.67
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.74
1.04
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.08
Clean sheet %
31% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kortrijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kortrijk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.10
1.27
0.80
0.86
1.43
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.57
0.75
1.25
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.33
0.83
1.67
0.44
1.00
1.22
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
34% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.3%
Under 2.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.1%
Under 3.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.6%
No
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.2%
1-0
12.0%
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.5%
3-0 ✓
9.0%
0-0
7.2%
3-1
6.5%
4-0
4.6%
Anderlecht goals ↓
Kortrijk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
3.6%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
1
12%
10%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
2
13%
9.5%
3.4%
0.8%
0.1%
3
9.0%
6.5%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
4
4.6%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Anderlecht goals (down), columns = Kortrijk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Club Brugge KV
2.13
Gent
2.00
Anderlecht
1.83
Oostende
1.63
Genk
1.60
Zulte Waregem
1.43
Standard Liege
1.37
Kortrijk
1.30
Charleroi
1.30
KV Mechelen
1.23
Lokeren
1.13
SK Beveren
1.10
KVC Westerlo
1.00
Mouscron-Peruwelz
1.00
St. Truiden
1.00
OH Leuven
0.97
Anderlecht is 0.53 points better than Kortrijk in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Club Brugge KV
2.13
Gent
1.87
Oostende
1.83
Zulte Waregem
1.70
Anderlecht
1.70
KV Mechelen
1.60
Genk
1.40
OH Leuven
1.40
Standard Liege
1.37
SK Beveren
1.33
Mouscron-Peruwelz
1.30
Charleroi
1.20
KVC Westerlo
1.17
Lokeren
1.17
Kortrijk
1.03
St. Truiden
0.93
Anderlecht is 0.67 goals better than Kortrijk in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Anderlecht
0.97
Gent
0.97
Club Brugge KV
1.00
Genk
1.00
Kortrijk
1.17
Charleroi
1.30
Lokeren
1.33
Oostende
1.47
St. Truiden
1.57
Zulte Waregem
1.67
KV Mechelen
1.67
Mouscron-Peruwelz
1.70
Standard Liege
1.70
OH Leuven
1.77
SK Beveren
1.90
KVC Westerlo
1.97
Anderlecht is 0.20 goals better than Kortrijk in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Anderlecht
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kortrijk
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Anderlecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kortrijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kortrijk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Anderlecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.66
0.38
0.79
0.29
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
0.65
0.43
0.82
0.36
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
66% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Kortrijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kortrijk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.55
0.34
0.80
0.27
0.29
0.43
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.43
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.28
1.11
0.11
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
69% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Anderlecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kortrijk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kortrijk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kortrijk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Anderlecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.62
1.07
0.64
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (23)
1.09
0.61
1.18
0.64
1.00
0.58
Clean sheet %
45% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Kortrijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kortrijk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.52
0.76
0.47
0.53
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.56
0.56
0.33
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
48% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Anderlecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kortrijk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kortrijk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kortrijk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Anderlecht · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joshua Nga Kana33%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Giulian Biancone0%
Danylo Sikan0%
Marco Kana0%
Léo Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
Ali Maamar0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giulian Biancone67%
Danylo Sikan33%
Marco Kana33%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Léo Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
Ali Maamar0%
Joshua Nga Kana0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ali Maamar33%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Giulian Biancone0%
Danylo Sikan0%
Marco Kana0%
Léo Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
Joshua Nga Kana0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danylo Sikan67%
Ali Maamar33%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Giulian Biancone0%
Marco Kana0%
Léo Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
Joshua Nga Kana0%
Kortrijk · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thierry Ambrose40%
Bryan Adinany40%
Jellert Van Landschoot38%
Mouhamed Gueye25%
Ilan Hurtevent24%
Brecht Dejaegere11%
Matthew Anderson11%
Csanád Vilmos Dénes6%
Sixtus Ogbuehi6%
James Ndjeungoue6%
Manuel Osifo6%
Boris Lambert5%
Lenn De Smet5%
Gilles Dewaele0%
Marko Ilić0%
Gilles Ruyssen0%
Lennard Hens0%
Youssef Challouk0%
Liam De Smet0%
Rudy Kohon0%
Ebbe De Vlaeminck0%
Cassius Mailula0%
Mohamed Fofana0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brecht Dejaegere28%
Mohamed Fofana25%
Bryan Adinany20%
James Ndjeungoue18%
Rudy Kohon17%
Thierry Ambrose15%
Jellert Van Landschoot14%
Lennard Hens14%
Gilles Ruyssen12%
Ilan Hurtevent12%
Liam De Smet11%
Manuel Osifo11%
Boris Lambert10%
Lenn De Smet10%
Csanád Vilmos Dénes6%
Matthew Anderson6%
Gilles Dewaele0%
Marko Ilić0%
Youssef Challouk0%
Ebbe De Vlaeminck0%
Cassius Mailula0%
Sixtus Ogbuehi0%
Mouhamed Gueye0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thierry Ambrose40%
Lennard Hens21%
Bryan Adinany20%
Csanád Vilmos Dénes19%
Brecht Dejaegere17%
Matthew Anderson17%
Lenn De Smet14%
Sixtus Ogbuehi6%
Ilan Hurtevent6%
Manuel Osifo6%
Rudy Kohon6%
Boris Lambert5%
Jellert Van Landschoot5%
Gilles Dewaele0%
Marko Ilić0%
Gilles Ruyssen0%
Youssef Challouk0%
Liam De Smet0%
Ebbe De Vlaeminck0%
James Ndjeungoue0%
Cassius Mailula0%
Mouhamed Gueye0%
Mohamed Fofana0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cassius Mailula33%
Thierry Ambrose20%
Bryan Adinany20%
Jellert Van Landschoot19%
Ilan Hurtevent12%
Gilles Ruyssen6%
Sixtus Ogbuehi6%
James Ndjeungoue6%
Brecht Dejaegere6%
Boris Lambert5%
Gilles Dewaele0%
Marko Ilić0%
Lennard Hens0%
Youssef Challouk0%
Liam De Smet0%
Csanád Vilmos Dénes0%
Lenn De Smet0%
Manuel Osifo0%
Rudy Kohon0%
Matthew Anderson0%
Ebbe De Vlaeminck0%
Mouhamed Gueye0%
Mohamed Fofana0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
KM (31)
€45m
KW (26)
€38m
CHA (21)
€31m
OL (27)
€30m
ST (23)
€30m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
Anderlecht's squad is €74m more valuable than Kortrijk's (€91m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
GEN (11)
€17m
KW (11)
€16m
SL (9)
€14m
KM (9)
€13m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
OL (8)
€7m
SB (9)
€4m
Anderlecht's attack is €42m more valuable than Kortrijk's (€50m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
KW (5)
€9m
SL (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
OL (6)
€6m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
Anderlecht's midfield is €14m more valuable than Kortrijk's (€18m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
KM (15)
€25m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
OL (13)
€17m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
KW (10)
€12m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
Anderlecht's defence is €18m more valuable than Kortrijk's (€24m vs €5m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Club Brugge KV
Gent
Oostende
Genk
Zulte Waregem
Standard Liege
Charleroi
KV Mechelen
SK Beveren
St. Truiden
KVC Westerlo
OH Leuven