PythiaFootballBETA
Anderlecht are expected to secure a win at home against St. Truiden, with a 42% probability of a home win, 27% for a draw, and 31% for an away win. The model's selection is a home win, and the expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.9%. Anderlecht have been scoring an average of 1.78 goals at home, where they have a weaker opponent, and conceding 1.11 goals. St. Truiden, on the other hand, have scored an average of 0.38 goals away against stronger opponents and conceded 1.25 goals.
The model suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection with a probability of 78.6%. Anderlecht have a 42% chance of winning, a 27% chance of drawing, and a 31% chance of losing. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals (78.6%), with no edge.
Anderlecht's 4-game winning streak continues, with a 3-1 victory over St. Truiden. The win extends their run of form, with the home side showing no signs of slowing down. The model's call for a home win proved correct, with Anderlecht's strong performance at the back and in front of goal. The model's selection, Anderlecht to win, had a pre-match probability of 42%. The model's Over 1.5 selection hit, with a probability of 78.6%. The most likely total goals score was 2, with a probability of 25%. The final score of 3-1 saw the home side's strong form continue, with the away side struggling to find their footing.
Anderlecht| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 1.60 | 1.64 | 1.21 | 1.19 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.56 | 2.11 | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.78 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
St. Truiden| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 1.13 | 1.47 | 1.20 | 1.60 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 1.00 | 1.35 | 1.56 | 1.44 | 0.38 | 1.25 |
| vs Similar (10) | 2.20 | 0.90 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.33 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| St. Truiden goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 7.9% | 13% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
AnderlechtSt. TruidenAnderlecht| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.2 | 9.8 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 24.9 | 24.8 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 7.2 | 6.3 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 22.8 | 22.3 | 24.0 |
| vs Similar (19) | 10.1 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 25.1 | 23.6 | 26.4 |
| vs Weaker (27) | 10.8 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 25.1 | 26.3 | 23.9 |
| % over line | 68% | 67% | 70% | 68% | 76% | 60% | 81% | 83% | 78% |
| % under line | 32% | 33% | 30% | 32% | 24% | 40% | 19% | 17% | 22% |
St. Truiden| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 21.4 | 20.8 | 22.0 |
| vs Stronger (20) | 10.4 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 19.2 | 19.3 | 19.1 |
| vs Similar (22) | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 23.5 | 22.1 | 24.8 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 8.1 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 20.9 | 21.8 | 20.0 |
| % over line | 58% | 60% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 50% | 48% | 52% |
| % under line | 42% | 40% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 50% | 52% | 48% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 13/12/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 19/10/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 15/12/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 27/07/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/02/24 | H | 4-1 | |
| 13/08/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/02/23 | H | 3-1 |
Anderlecht| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 23/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
St. Truiden| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Club Brugge KV | 40 | 88 | 70% | 2.2 | 91 | 45 | +46 | 3.4 | 78% | 65% | 35% | 11.0 | 68% | 3.9 | 49% | 20.9 | 45% | 274 | 130 | 65 | 79 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 60% |
| 2 |  Union St. Gilloise | 40 | 86 | 62% | 2.1 | 66 | 27 | +39 | 2.3 | 70% | 40% | 20% | 9.4 | 55% | 4.9 | 71% | 21.6 | 52% | 163 | 59 | 69 | 35 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 52% |
| 3 | St. Truiden | 40 | 71 | 55% | 1.8 | 61 | 46 | +15 | 2.7 | 80% | 55% | 25% | 10.2 | 68% | 4.0 | 54% | 21.4 | 52% | 53 | 29 | 10 | 13 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 4 |  Genk | 41 | 60 | 37% | 1.5 | 58 | 54 | +4 | 2.7 | 83% | 54% | 15% | 9.8 | 49% | 3.8 | 50% | 22.2 | 54% | 182 | 106 | 20 | 56 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 58% |
| 5 |  Standard Liege | 40 | 57 | 40% | 1.4 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 2.2 | 72% | 45% | 12% | 10.0 | 45% | 4.5 | 68% | 22.3 | 52% | 57 | 16 | 9 | 32 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 44% |
| 6 | Anderlecht | 40 | 55 | 38% | 1.4 | 59 | 62 | -3 | 3.0 | 75% | 52% | 45% | 10.5 | 70% | 5.3 | 72% | 24.6 | 78% | 126 | 46 | 38 | 42 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 53% |
| 7 |  Gent | 41 | 52 | 32% | 1.3 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 2.7 | 80% | 49% | 34% | 10.4 | 59% | 3.7 | 45% | 21.5 | 44% | 62 | 24 | 21 | 16 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 8 |  KVC Westerlo | 40 | 52 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 2.7 | 78% | 42% | 22% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.9 | 60% | 23.7 | 68% | 66 | 32 | 11 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 9 |  Charleroi | 40 | 51 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 50 | +0 | 2.5 | 78% | 40% | 22% | 10.7 | 57% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.1 | 55% | 44 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 10 |  KV Mechelen | 40 | 51 | 32% | 1.3 | 48 | 61 | -13 | 2.7 | 75% | 48% | 32% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 57% | 22.4 | 50% | 51 | 12 | 7 | 32 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 11 |  Zulte Waregem | 36 | 48 | 36% | 1.3 | 53 | 53 | +0 | 2.9 | 81% | 53% | 36% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.6 | 39% | 23.1 | 61% | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 12 |  Antwerp | 40 | 48 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 2.3 | 72% | 40% | 15% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.5 | 60% | 24.6 | 75% | 97 | 17 | 24 | 57 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 13 |  Cercle Brugge | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 53 | 58 | -5 | 3.1 | 89% | 58% | 36% | 10.8 | 69% | 3.7 | 50% | 22.8 | 61% | 44 | 14 | 9 | 22 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  OH Leuven | 40 | 40 | 25% | 1.0 | 41 | 60 | -19 | 2.5 | 75% | 45% | 25% | 11.1 | 68% | 5.1 | 68% | 25.6 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 15 |  RAAL La Louvière | 36 | 34 | 19% | 0.9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 2.4 | 64% | 47% | 22% | 9.4 | 50% | 3.6 | 49% | 23.6 | 67% | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 39% |
| 16 |  Dender | 38 | 26 | 13% | 0.7 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 2.6 | 71% | 55% | 29% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 53% | 22.1 | 55% | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 48% |
| 17 |  Lommel United | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 3.2 | 83% | 83% | 50% | 11.0 | 83% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.2 | 50% | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 45% |
| 18 |  Beerschot VA | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.8 | 75% | 26.5 | 100% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 64% |
| 19 |  Patro Eisden | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7.5 | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 29% |
| 20 |  Liège | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.0 | 50% | 3.0 | 0% | 21.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 56% |