PythiaFootballBETA
This highly anticipated matchup between Antwerp and KVC Westerlo in the Belgium: Jupiler Pro League is finely balanced, with recent form suggesting a contrasting narrative. Antwerp has been on a 3-game winning run, including a 3-0 victory over Kortrijk, while KVC Westerlo has struggled, suffering 4 consecutive defeats before a 2-3 loss to Genk.
The model predicts an Away win, with a 40% chance of victory for KVC Westerlo. The probability of a Home win is 32%, and the draw percentage stands at 28%. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. One of the most likely scorelines is 1-1, with a probability of 13.2%.
Antwerp has been scoring an average of 1.22 goals at home, conceding 1.44. Meanwhile, KVC Westerlo has scored 0.67 goals away from home, conceding 1.33 to stronger opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 77.6% probability of hitting.
The model suggests a Home win (32%), an Away win (40%), and a draw (28%) as the top three match result selections. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 (77.6%), a KVC Westerlo win (40%), and an Antwerp win (32%) as the top three selections.
In a major upset, Antwerp secured a 2-0 win at home, extending their 3-game winning run and dealing a blow to KVC Westerlo's chances. The win extends their run, while KVC Westerlo's recent struggles continue, having lost 4 consecutive matches. The model's selection, an away win, was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 40%. The model's call was incorrect. The model's selection, an away win, was wrong. The model's selection, an away win, was wrong. The suggested picks also failed to come through, with 'Over 1.5' being the model's selection, but it was the model's selection that did not come to pass, missing with a probability of 77.6%.
Antwerp| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.23 | 1.13 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 1.11 | 1.32 | 1.22 | 1.44 | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
KVC Westerlo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.17 | 1.31 | 1.44 | 0.93 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 1.07 | 1.20 | 1.33 | 1.11 | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.20 | 1.13 | 1.29 | 1.86 | 1.12 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| KVC Westerlo goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 13% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
AntwerpKVC WesterloAntwerp| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 23.9 | 24.1 | 23.7 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 7.5 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 21.5 | 22.5 | 20.5 |
| vs Similar (23) | 8.7 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 23.0 | 23.3 | 22.5 |
| vs Weaker (23) | 9.7 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 25.3 | 25.3 | 25.2 |
| % over line | 44% | 40% | 48% | 56% | 64% | 48% | 70% | 68% | 72% |
| % under line | 56% | 60% | 52% | 44% | 36% | 52% | 30% | 32% | 28% |
KVC Westerlo| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.8 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 22.2 | 23.7 |
| vs Stronger (21) | 10.0 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 23.8 | 22.8 | 24.9 |
| vs Similar (29) | 11.3 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 22.3 | 21.7 | 22.9 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 62% | 52% | 72% | 58% | 64% | 52% | 62% | 60% | 64% |
| % under line | 38% | 48% | 28% | 42% | 36% | 48% | 38% | 40% | 36% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 15/02/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 30/08/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 19/01/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 21/09/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 23/12/23 | H | 2-2 | |
| 15/09/23 | A | 0-3 | |
| 27/12/22 | A | 3-3 |
Antwerp| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 15/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
KVC Westerlo| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Club Brugge KV | 40 | 88 | 70% | 2.2 | 91 | 45 | +46 | 3.4 | 78% | 65% | 35% | 11.0 | 68% | 3.9 | 49% | 20.9 | 45% | 274 | 130 | 65 | 79 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 60% |
| 2 |  Union St. Gilloise | 40 | 86 | 62% | 2.1 | 66 | 27 | +39 | 2.3 | 70% | 40% | 20% | 9.4 | 55% | 4.9 | 71% | 21.6 | 52% | 163 | 59 | 69 | 35 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 52% |
| 3 |  St. Truiden | 40 | 71 | 55% | 1.8 | 61 | 46 | +15 | 2.7 | 80% | 55% | 25% | 10.2 | 68% | 4.0 | 54% | 21.4 | 52% | 53 | 29 | 10 | 13 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 4 |  Genk | 41 | 60 | 37% | 1.5 | 58 | 54 | +4 | 2.7 | 83% | 54% | 15% | 9.8 | 49% | 3.8 | 50% | 22.2 | 54% | 182 | 106 | 20 | 56 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 58% |
| 5 |  Standard Liege | 40 | 57 | 40% | 1.4 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 2.2 | 72% | 45% | 12% | 10.0 | 45% | 4.5 | 68% | 22.3 | 52% | 57 | 16 | 9 | 32 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 44% |
| 6 |  Anderlecht | 40 | 55 | 38% | 1.4 | 59 | 62 | -3 | 3.0 | 75% | 52% | 45% | 10.5 | 70% | 5.3 | 72% | 24.6 | 78% | 126 | 46 | 38 | 42 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 53% |
| 7 |  Gent | 41 | 52 | 32% | 1.3 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 2.7 | 80% | 49% | 34% | 10.4 | 59% | 3.7 | 45% | 21.5 | 44% | 62 | 24 | 21 | 16 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 8 | KVC Westerlo | 40 | 52 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 2.7 | 78% | 42% | 22% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.9 | 60% | 23.7 | 68% | 66 | 32 | 11 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 9 |  Charleroi | 40 | 51 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 50 | +0 | 2.5 | 78% | 40% | 22% | 10.7 | 57% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.1 | 55% | 44 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 10 |  KV Mechelen | 40 | 51 | 32% | 1.3 | 48 | 61 | -13 | 2.7 | 75% | 48% | 32% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 57% | 22.4 | 50% | 51 | 12 | 7 | 32 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 11 |  Zulte Waregem | 36 | 48 | 36% | 1.3 | 53 | 53 | +0 | 2.9 | 81% | 53% | 36% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.6 | 39% | 23.1 | 61% | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 12 | Antwerp | 40 | 48 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 2.3 | 72% | 40% | 15% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.5 | 60% | 24.6 | 75% | 97 | 17 | 24 | 57 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 13 |  Cercle Brugge | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 53 | 58 | -5 | 3.1 | 89% | 58% | 36% | 10.8 | 69% | 3.7 | 50% | 22.8 | 61% | 44 | 14 | 9 | 22 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  OH Leuven | 40 | 40 | 25% | 1.0 | 41 | 60 | -19 | 2.5 | 75% | 45% | 25% | 11.1 | 68% | 5.1 | 68% | 25.6 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 15 |  RAAL La Louvière | 36 | 34 | 19% | 0.9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 2.4 | 64% | 47% | 22% | 9.4 | 50% | 3.6 | 49% | 23.6 | 67% | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 39% |
| 16 |  Dender | 38 | 26 | 13% | 0.7 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 2.6 | 71% | 55% | 29% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 53% | 22.1 | 55% | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 48% |
| 17 |  Lommel United | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 3.2 | 83% | 83% | 50% | 11.0 | 83% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.2 | 50% | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 45% |
| 18 |  Beerschot VA | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.8 | 75% | 26.5 | 100% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 64% |
| 19 |  Patro Eisden | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7.5 | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 29% |
| 20 |  Liège | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.0 | 50% | 3.0 | 0% | 21.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 56% |