Antwerp are the clear favourites, with a 57% chance of victory, a 24% chance of a draw and only a 19% chance of Standard Liege winning. The model expects 2.9 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which the model assigns a 11.6% probability. Antwerp, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded, while Standard Liege on the road averages 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 90.6%, Over 3.5 cards at 78.8%, Under 11.5 corners at 75.1%, and Over 1.5 at 79.5%. Antwerp’s recent form shows a win streak after a defeat, whereas Standard Liege is on a two-game winning run. The predicted outcome is a home win, but the match could still end in a 1-1 draw.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Antwerp, failed to deliver a win, as the match finished 0-0, a draw that surprised the model’s 57% expectation of a home victory. Antwerp’s recent run of LDWWW had ended after a 1-4 loss to St. Truiden, while Standard Liege were on a two-game winning streak, having beaten OH Leuven 2-1. The model’s call was wrong. The suggested picks were mixed: Over 2.5 cards hit at 90.6%, Over 3.5 cards also hit at 78.8%, and Under 11.5 corners hit at 75.1%. Only Over 1.5, with a 79.5% probability, missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Antwerp win✗ Miss
56.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Standard Liege win✗ Miss
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Antwerp
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.64
1.36
2.00
1.20
1.33
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (5)
1.40
1.40
1.33
2.00
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
1.40
3.00
0.00
1.67
2.33
Clean sheet %
36% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Standard Liege) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Standard Liege
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.50
1.57
1.57
1.06
1.44
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.83
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (14)
1.43
1.50
1.62
1.62
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (10)
1.50
1.30
1.75
1.25
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
10% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Antwerp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.9%
Under 3.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.8%
1-0
9.4%
0-0 ✓
6.6%
3-1
6.2%
3-0
6.2%
1-2
5.3%
Antwerp goals ↓
Standard Liege goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
4.5%
2.8%
1.0%
0.2%
1
9.4%
12%
5.3%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.8%
9.9%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.2%
6.2%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.9%
2.9%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Antwerp goals (down), columns = Standard Liege goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Club Brugge KV
2.23
Anderlecht
1.83
Charleroi
1.70
Gent
1.67
Genk
1.47
Standard Liege
1.47
Kortrijk
1.40
Antwerp
1.37
Zulte Waregem
1.23
St. Truiden
1.23
Oostende
1.20
SK Beveren
1.17
Lokeren
1.03
Mouscron
1.00
Eupen
0.90
KV Mechelen
0.90
Antwerp is 0.10 points worse than Standard Liege in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Club Brugge KV
2.27
SK Beveren
1.67
Anderlecht
1.63
Zulte Waregem
1.57
Charleroi
1.53
Gent
1.50
Genk
1.47
Standard Liege
1.43
Oostende
1.40
Kortrijk
1.40
Eupen
1.33
Mouscron
1.33
Antwerp
1.27
Lokeren
1.10
KV Mechelen
1.03
St. Truiden
0.97
Antwerp is 0.17 goals worse than Standard Liege in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gent
0.90
Charleroi
1.00
Club Brugge KV
1.10
Genk
1.20
Kortrijk
1.30
Antwerp
1.33
Oostende
1.37
St. Truiden
1.37
Standard Liege
1.37
Anderlecht
1.40
Lokeren
1.63
KV Mechelen
1.63
SK Beveren
1.70
Zulte Waregem
1.73
Eupen
1.90
Mouscron
1.97
Antwerp is 0.03 goals better than Standard Liege in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Antwerp
For 3.9 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Standard Liege
For 4.9 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Antwerp
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (11)
9.9
10.2
9.7
4.7
4.4
5.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
8.0
-
8.0
7.0
-
7.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
10.2
10.3
10.0
5.0
4.0
6.5
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
10.0
10.0
10.0
4.0
5.0
3.3
-
-
-
% over line
55%
60%
50%
64%
60%
67%
-
-
-
% under line
45%
40%
50%
36%
40%
33%
-
-
-
This opponent (Standard Liege) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Standard Liege
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
8.6
7.5
1.3
1.3
1.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (11)
10.3
11.0
10.0
1.4
1.4
1.3
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
6.8
8.0
5.0
1.2
1.2
1.2
-
-
-
vs Weaker (14)
7.7
8.0
7.5
1.6
1.5
1.6
-
-
-
% over line
27%
20%
33%
18%
17%
19%
-
-
-
% under line
73%
80%
67%
82%
83%
81%
-
-
-
This opponent (Antwerp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kortrijk
12.8
Anderlecht
12.6
Lokeren
12.0
Oostende
11.8
Gent
10.8
KV Mechelen
10.8
SK Beveren
10.6
Zulte Waregem
10.1
Club Brugge KV
10.0
Genk
10.0
Antwerp
9.9
Eupen
9.6
St. Truiden
9.5
Mouscron
9.2
Charleroi
8.9
Standard Liege
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Standard Liege
6.1
St. Truiden
5.9
KV Mechelen
5.8
Mouscron
5.6
Eupen
5.5
Gent
5.3
Lokeren
5.2
Club Brugge KV
5.0
Antwerp
4.7
Genk
4.7
Kortrijk
4.7
Anderlecht
4.3
Oostende
4.3
Zulte Waregem
4.2
SK Beveren
3.9
Charleroi
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.0%
Under 9.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
78.8%
Under 3.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Antwerp
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.55
1.00
0.80
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.80
0.33
1.33
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.20
2.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Standard Liege) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Standard Liege
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.43
1.00
0.38
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (10)
0.30
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Antwerp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Antwerp over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Antwerp over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Antwerp over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Standard Liege over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Standard Liege over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Standard Liege over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Antwerp
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.82
1.00
0.40
1.00
1.17
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.20
1.00
0.00
1.33
2.00
Clean sheet %
45% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Standard Liege) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Standard Liege
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
1.00
1.07
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.64
1.07
0.62
1.25
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.70
1.75
0.75
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Antwerp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Antwerp over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Antwerp over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Antwerp over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Standard Liege over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Standard Liege over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Standard Liege over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Antwerp · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Michael Frey33%
Taishi Brandon Nozawa0%
Thibo Somers0%
Rein Van Helden0%
Ibrahim Salah0%
Yuto Tsunashima0%
Eran Tuypens0%
Xander Dierckx0%
Luca Schelfhout0%
Modibo Fofana0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Schelfhout67%
Michael Frey0%
Taishi Brandon Nozawa0%
Thibo Somers0%
Rein Van Helden0%
Ibrahim Salah0%
Yuto Tsunashima0%
Eran Tuypens0%
Xander Dierckx0%
Modibo Fofana0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thibo Somers33%
Michael Frey0%
Taishi Brandon Nozawa0%
Rein Van Helden0%
Ibrahim Salah0%
Yuto Tsunashima0%
Eran Tuypens0%
Xander Dierckx0%
Luca Schelfhout0%
Modibo Fofana0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Michael Frey33%
Taishi Brandon Nozawa0%
Thibo Somers0%
Rein Van Helden0%
Ibrahim Salah0%
Yuto Tsunashima0%
Eran Tuypens0%
Xander Dierckx0%
Luca Schelfhout0%
Modibo Fofana0%
Standard Liege · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dennis Eckert Ayensa50%
Salieu Drammeh33%
Casper Nielsen25%
Adnane Abid25%
Bernard Nguene25%
Tobias Mohr0%
Ibrahim Karamoko0%
Marlon Fossey0%
Henry Lawrence0%
Alexis Trouillet0%
Ibe Hautekiet0%
Matthieu Epolo0%
Gustav Mortensen0%
Rayan Touzghar0%
Ryan Fosso0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matthieu Epolo50%
Ryan Fosso33%
Casper Nielsen25%
Alexis Trouillet25%
Gustav Mortensen25%
Adnane Abid25%
Tobias Mohr0%
Ibrahim Karamoko0%
Dennis Eckert Ayensa0%
Marlon Fossey0%
Henry Lawrence0%
Ibe Hautekiet0%
Rayan Touzghar0%
Salieu Drammeh0%
Bernard Nguene0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Casper Nielsen50%
Adnane Abid50%
Marlon Fossey25%
Bernard Nguene25%
Tobias Mohr0%
Ibrahim Karamoko0%
Dennis Eckert Ayensa0%
Henry Lawrence0%
Alexis Trouillet0%
Ibe Hautekiet0%
Matthieu Epolo0%
Gustav Mortensen0%
Rayan Touzghar0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Salieu Drammeh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bernard Nguene75%
Salieu Drammeh33%
Dennis Eckert Ayensa25%
Adnane Abid25%
Casper Nielsen0%
Tobias Mohr0%
Ibrahim Karamoko0%
Marlon Fossey0%
Henry Lawrence0%
Alexis Trouillet0%
Ibe Hautekiet0%
Matthieu Epolo0%
Gustav Mortensen0%
Rayan Touzghar0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
KM (31)
€45m
ANT (24)
€33m
CHA (21)
€31m
ST (23)
€30m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
Antwerp's squad is €21m less valuable than Standard Liege's (€33m vs €54m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
GEN (11)
€17m
SL (9)
€14m
KM (9)
€13m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
ANT (10)
€9m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
SB (9)
€4m
Antwerp's attack is €6m less valuable than Standard Liege's (€9m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
ANT (4)
€10m
SL (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
Antwerp's midfield is €1m more valuable than Standard Liege's (€10m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
KM (15)
€25m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
ANT (10)
€14m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
Antwerp's defence is €17m less valuable than Standard Liege's (€14m vs €31m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Club Brugge KV
Anderlecht
Charleroi
Gent
Genk
Kortrijk
Zulte Waregem
St. Truiden
Oostende
SK Beveren
KV Mechelen