Arouca vs Maritimo Result & Analysis

The clash between Arouca and Marítimo is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 39 % for Arouca, 28 % for a draw and 34 % for Marítimo, so the single most likely outcome is a win for the home side. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderate scoring game, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1 with a 13.1 % chance. Arouca, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded, while Marítimo, on the road, averages 1.69 goals scored and 0.85 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99.2 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4 % (edge 6 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.7 %, Under 6.5 at 97.6 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 96.5 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.5 % (edge 5 %), Away under 3.5 goals at 95.3 % (edge 3 %) and Home under 3.5 goals at 93.9 % (edge 3 %). Arouca’s recent run of LWWWW after a 0-2 loss to FC Porto and Marítimo’s DWWLL following a 2-2 draw with Académico Viseu add further intrigue to this balanced fixture.

Arouca’s recent form, highlighted by a win over Marítimo, set the stage for a home triumph that the model predicted correctly. The match finished 2-1 in favour of the hosts, matching the pre-match favourite of a home win with a 39% probability. The model’s selections largely came through: Under 7.5 goals hit with 99.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3% hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.9% hit, Under 6.5 goals at 97.6% hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.8% hit, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.3% hit, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.4% hit. Only the Over 19.5 fouls selection, at 96.5%, missed. The predicted 2-goal total also materialised, confirming the model’s overall accuracy.