This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atalanta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.87
1.60
0.87
1.53
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.20
1.00
1.20
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (20)
1.85
0.70
1.90
0.70
1.80
0.70
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Roma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.9%
Under 1.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.4%
Under 2.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.5%
No
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
8.9%
1-2
8.4%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
5.9%
AS Roma goals ↓
Atalanta goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
8.9%
6.7%
3.0%
1.0%
1
8.3%
14%
8.4%
3.7%
1.2%
2
5.9%
7.9%
5.2%
2.3%
0.8%
3
2.5%
3.3%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AS Roma goals (down), columns = Atalanta goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Juventus
2.37
Napoli
2.08
Inter
1.82
Atalanta
1.82
AC Milan
1.79
AS Roma
1.74
Torino
1.66
Lazio
1.55
Sampdoria
1.39
Bologna
1.16
Sassuolo
1.13
Udinese
1.13
Spal
1.11
Cagliari
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Parma
1.08
Empoli
1.00
Genoa
1.00
Frosinone
0.66
Chievo
0.53
AS Roma is 0.08 points worse than Atalanta in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atalanta
2.03
Napoli
1.95
Juventus
1.84
AS Roma
1.74
Sampdoria
1.58
Inter
1.50
Lazio
1.47
AC Milan
1.45
Sassuolo
1.39
Torino
1.37
Empoli
1.34
Bologna
1.26
Fiorentina
1.24
Spal
1.16
Parma
1.08
Udinese
1.03
Genoa
1.03
Cagliari
0.95
Frosinone
0.76
Chievo
0.66
AS Roma is 0.29 goals worse than Atalanta in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 2.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Juventus
0.79
Inter
0.87
Napoli
0.95
AC Milan
0.95
Torino
0.97
Fiorentina
1.18
Atalanta
1.21
Lazio
1.21
AS Roma
1.26
Sampdoria
1.34
Udinese
1.39
Cagliari
1.42
Bologna
1.47
Spal
1.47
Genoa
1.50
Sassuolo
1.58
Parma
1.61
Frosinone
1.82
Empoli
1.84
Chievo
1.97
AS Roma is 0.05 goals worse than Atalanta in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AS Roma
For 5.6 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 12.4 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atalanta
For 6.1 · Against 5.4 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.1 · Against 10.7 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AS Roma
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.5
12.5
10.4
3.5
3.3
3.7
22.3
21.0
23.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
11.7
12.4
10.8
4.2
4.3
4.1
22.1
20.8
23.6
vs Weaker (32)
11.3
12.5
10.3
3.1
2.7
3.5
22.5
21.1
23.7
% over line
70%
80%
60%
54%
52%
56%
56%
44%
68%
% under line
30%
20%
40%
46%
48%
44%
44%
56%
32%
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atalanta
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
10.8
11.5
4.4
4.2
4.6
26.7
25.9
27.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
11.6
10.8
12.4
5.3
5.6
5.0
25.4
24.7
26.2
vs Weaker (32)
10.8
10.8
10.9
3.9
3.4
4.4
27.5
26.5
28.5
% over line
72%
65%
79%
62%
54%
71%
84%
77%
92%
% under line
28%
35%
21%
38%
46%
29%
16%
23%
8%
This opponent (AS Roma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Inter
12.4
Sampdoria
11.6
Sassuolo
11.6
AS Roma
11.5
Atalanta
11.1
Udinese
11.0
Fiorentina
11.0
AC Milan
10.9
Torino
10.8
Bologna
10.3
Frosinone
10.3
Spal
10.0
Chievo
10.0
Empoli
9.9
Lazio
9.9
Cagliari
9.8
Napoli
9.8
Parma
9.5
Genoa
9.0
Juventus
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fiorentina
5.2
Spal
5.0
Parma
4.9
Sassuolo
4.8
Bologna
4.7
Cagliari
4.7
AC Milan
4.7
Atalanta
4.4
Sampdoria
4.4
Frosinone
4.4
Genoa
4.3
Lazio
4.3
Inter
4.2
Juventus
4.1
Torino
4.1
Udinese
3.9
Chievo
3.8
Empoli
3.7
Napoli
3.6
AS Roma
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
32.9
Parma
29.8
Spal
29.8
Cagliari
28.9
Torino
28.5
Empoli
28.2
Genoa
28.1
Sassuolo
27.9
Atalanta
26.7
Fiorentina
26.4
AC Milan
26.2
Bologna
25.8
Chievo
25.3
Udinese
24.7
Juventus
24.2
Sampdoria
24.1
Inter
23.9
AS Roma
22.3
Lazio
21.8
Napoli
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
68.0%
Under 9.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.4%
Under 3.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
69.8%
Under 21.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AS Roma
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.37
0.57
0.36
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.80
0.00
0.80
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (20)
0.65
0.15
0.89
0.11
0.45
0.18
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atalanta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.40
0.47
0.40
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (20)
0.50
0.35
0.40
0.30
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Roma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AS Roma over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Roma over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Roma over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AS Roma
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
1.07
0.64
0.81
0.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (20)
1.05
0.35
1.33
0.67
0.82
0.09
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atalanta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.47
1.13
0.47
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.70
0.40
0.60
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (20)
1.35
0.35
1.50
0.40
1.20
0.30
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Roma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AS Roma over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Roma over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Roma over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AS Roma · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Donyell Malen50%
Antonio Arena33%
Lorenzo Pellegrini21%
Evan Ferguson18%
Artem Dovbyk17%
Matías Soulé17%
Wesley13%
Evan Ndicka12%
Mario Hermoso11%
Paulo Dybala11%
Tommaso Baldanzi10%
Gianluca Mancini9%
Niccolò Pisilli9%
Stephan El Shaarawy7%
Robinio Vaz7%
Neil El Aynaoui6%
Manu Koné5%
Bryan Cristante4%
Jan Ziółkowski4%
Devyne Rensch3%
Zeki Çelik2%
Angeliño0%
Mile Svilar0%
Leon Bailey0%
Kostas Tsimikas0%
Bryan Zaragoza0%
Daniele Ghilardi0%
Lorenzo Venturino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mario Hermoso31%
Gianluca Mancini27%
Angeliño22%
Tommaso Baldanzi20%
Wesley18%
Stephan El Shaarawy18%
Neil El Aynaoui18%
Bryan Cristante17%
Jan Ziółkowski17%
Evan Ndicka17%
Bryan Zaragoza17%
Niccolò Pisilli12%
Zeki Çelik11%
Daniele Ghilardi11%
Manu Koné8%
Kostas Tsimikas8%
Devyne Rensch6%
Lorenzo Pellegrini6%
Donyell Malen5%
Matías Soulé5%
Evan Ferguson5%
Mile Svilar0%
Paulo Dybala0%
Leon Bailey0%
Artem Dovbyk0%
Robinio Vaz0%
Lorenzo Venturino0%
Antonio Arena0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Paulo Dybala22%
Leon Bailey18%
Bryan Zaragoza17%
Matías Soulé17%
Devyne Rensch12%
Lorenzo Pellegrini12%
Niccolò Pisilli12%
Artem Dovbyk11%
Donyell Malen10%
Evan Ferguson9%
Zeki Çelik9%
Manu Koné8%
Stephan El Shaarawy7%
Neil El Aynaoui6%
Mario Hermoso6%
Gianluca Mancini4%
Bryan Cristante4%
Kostas Tsimikas4%
Wesley3%
Angeliño0%
Mile Svilar0%
Evan Ndicka0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Daniele Ghilardi0%
Jan Ziółkowski0%
Robinio Vaz0%
Lorenzo Venturino0%
Antonio Arena0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Donyell Malen55%
Antonio Arena33%
Evan Ferguson23%
Paulo Dybala19%
Matías Soulé17%
Lorenzo Pellegrini9%
Stephan El Shaarawy7%
Evan Ndicka5%
Bryan Cristante4%
Niccolò Pisilli3%
Mario Hermoso3%
Manu Koné3%
Wesley3%
Gianluca Mancini2%
Angeliño0%
Mile Svilar0%
Leon Bailey0%
Kostas Tsimikas0%
Artem Dovbyk0%
Zeki Çelik0%
Devyne Rensch0%
Neil El Aynaoui0%
Bryan Zaragoza0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Daniele Ghilardi0%
Jan Ziółkowski0%
Robinio Vaz0%
Lorenzo Venturino0%
Atalanta · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giacomo Raspadori25%
Gianluca Scamacca25%
Nikola Krstović25%
Lazar Samardžić25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giacomo Raspadori25%
Nikola Krstović25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Lazar Samardžić0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gianluca Gaetano25%
Nicola Zalewski25%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Giacomo Raspadori0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Nikola Krstović0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Lazar Samardžić0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nikola Krstović50%
Lazar Samardžić25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Giacomo Raspadori0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
FRO (33)
€84m
SAM (27)
€37m
EMP (27)
€20m
AS Roma's squad is €33m more valuable than Atalanta's (€471m vs €438m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
SAM (7)
€14m
EMP (9)
€11m
AS Roma's attack is €20m less valuable than Atalanta's (€138m vs €158m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
SAM (6)
€7m
EMP (9)
€6m
AS Roma's midfield is €10m less valuable than Atalanta's (€118m vs €128m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
PAR (12)
€46m
FRO (14)
€24m
SAM (14)
€17m
EMP (9)
€4m
AS Roma's defence is €63m more valuable than Atalanta's (€215m vs €153m).
Italy: Serie A 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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Juventus
Napoli
Inter
AC Milan
Torino
Lazio
Sampdoria
Bologna
Sassuolo
Udinese
Spal
Fiorentina
Cagliari
Parma
Genoa
Empoli
Frosinone