AS Roma are favoured to win, with the model picking a home victory and a 50% chance of success. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total being two and the single most probable scoreline 1-1 at 13.2%. Roma’s home form is strong, averaging 2.25 goals scored and only 0.62 conceded against similar opposition, while Atalanta’s away record shows a modest 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded per game. The probabilities for the match result are 50% for a home win, 28% for a draw, and 22% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (98.9% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.2% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (96.7% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.1% with a 5% edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.3% with a 5% edge). Roma’s recent five-game winning streak, highlighted by a 4-0 victory over Lecce, underpins their confidence, while Atalanta’s three-game winning run, capped by a 1-0 win over Bologna, shows they are not far behind.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AS Roma win
50.2%
Avg Implied 54.8% · @ 1.73
Edge
-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Dafabet
1.74
William Hil
1.73
Draw
27.7%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.69
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.94
1xBet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.82
Dafabet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Atalanta win
22.2%
Avg Implied 19.6% · @ 4.82
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.06
Dafabet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Pinnacle
4.99
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AS Roma
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.93
2.33
0.60
1.60
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.85
1.31
2.25
0.62
1.20
2.40
vs Weaker (17)
2.06
0.65
2.43
0.57
1.80
0.70
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atalanta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.17
1.53
1.13
1.27
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
5.00
1.00
6.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (12)
1.33
1.17
2.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.50
0.69
1.40
0.50
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Roma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.4%
@ 1.29+0.4%
Under 1.5
26.6%
@ 3.49-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.71
Unibet
3.55
Betano
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.8%
@ 1.92-3.0%
Under 2.5
53.2%
@ 1.90+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.97
Unibet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.93
Under
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.95
SBO
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.2%
@ 3.20-4.2%
Under 3.5
74.8%
@ 1.33+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.32
10Bet
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Under
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Both teams to score
Yes
50.5%
@ 1.82-0.8%
No
49.5%
@ 1.91+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.85
Betfair
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
No
Bet365
1.95
William Hil
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 6.64+6.3%
1-0
11.1%@ 6.50+4.1%
2-0
9.7%@ 7.75+3.8%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.70+3.5%
0-0
9.0%@ 9.82+4.4%
0-1
6.4%@ 12.01+2.6%
1-2
5.8%@ 14.13+2.6%
3-0
5.1%@ 12.86+1.5%
AS Roma goals ↓
Atalanta goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
6.4%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.8%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.7%
9.4%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.1%
5.0%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.0%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AS Roma goals (down), columns = Atalanta goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
AS Roma is 0.37 points better than Atalanta in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.55).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Genoa
1.08
Lazio
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
AS Roma is 0.21 goals better than Atalanta in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
AS Roma is 0.13 goals better than Atalanta in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
AS Roma is 1.2 percentage points better than Atalanta in terms of average possession (56% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AS Roma
For 4.6 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atalanta
For 3.9 · Against 3.7 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 9.4 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AS Roma
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.8
8.5
4.2
4.2
4.1
28.0
28.2
27.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
8.6
8.5
8.7
4.2
4.6
3.7
28.1
27.4
28.9
vs Weaker (28)
8.7
9.0
8.4
4.1
3.9
4.3
28.0
28.8
27.2
% over line
36%
36%
36%
68%
68%
68%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
64%
64%
64%
32%
32%
32%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atalanta
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.0
9.4
3.1
3.0
3.2
22.0
22.6
21.4
vs Stronger (2)
9.0
9.0
9.0
2.0
4.0
0.0
17.0
22.0
12.0
vs Similar (25)
9.0
9.5
8.6
3.9
3.7
4.2
21.6
22.0
21.2
vs Weaker (23)
9.4
8.6
10.3
2.4
2.2
2.5
22.9
23.2
22.5
% over line
38%
31%
46%
42%
35%
50%
54%
62%
46%
% under line
62%
69%
54%
58%
65%
50%
46%
38%
54%
This opponent (AS Roma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.8
Juventus
9.7
Inter
9.3
Bologna
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Cagliari
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Genoa
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.4
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.0
Genoa
27.1
Monza
27.0
Cagliari
26.8
Como
26.1
Lecce
25.4
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
23.9
Juventus
23.5
Napoli
23.3
Atalanta
22.0
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
34.7%
@ 2.10-9.5%
Under 9.5
65.3%
@ 1.67+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.13
Marathonbet
2.08
Betano
2.07
Under
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.5%
@ 1.77-0.4%
Under 3.5
47.5%
@ 1.99+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
69.0%
Under 21.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AS Roma or Draw
78.8%
Avg Implied 80.2% · @ 1.18
Edge
-1.3%
50%
28%
22%
covers AS Roma + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.18
AS Roma or Atalanta
71.2%
Avg Implied 74.9% · @ 1.26
Edge
-3.7%
50%
28%
22%
covers AS Roma + Atalanta
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Atalanta
50.0%
Avg Implied 45.0% · @ 2.10
Edge
+5.0%
50%
28%
22%
covers Draw + Atalanta
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
SBO
2.15
Betano
2.12
Betfair
2.10
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AS Roma over/under 0.5
Over
77.2%
@ 1.14-4.0%
Under
22.8%
@ 4.94+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.75
AS Roma over/under 1.5
Over
43.5%
@ 1.81-8.1%
Under
56.5%
@ 1.94+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.84
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.93
AS Roma over/under 2.5
Over
18.6%
@ 3.55-7.6%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.26+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.69
BetVictor
3.60
Unibet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
AS Roma over/under 3.5
Over
6.3%
@ 7.38-6.3%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.06+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.30
Unibet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Atalanta over/under 0.5
Over
58.5%
@ 1.54-2.1%
Under
41.5%
@ 2.36+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Unibet
1.54
Under
Pinnacle
2.48
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Atalanta over/under 1.5
Over
22.0%
@ 3.69-3.3%
Under
78.0%
@ 1.25+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.89
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
1xBet
3.72
Under
Marathonbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Atalanta over/under 2.5
Over
5.9%
@ 9.31-4.1%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.04+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Unibet
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Atalanta over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
@ 23.50-2.9%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AS Roma, so a minus line means AS Roma give that many goals of a start and Atalanta receive them. At -1, AS Roma must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AS Roma win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AS Roma)
AS Roma -2
10.3%
@ 5.93-4.8%
Draw -2
15.6%
@ 4.87-2.8%
Atalanta +2
74.1%
@ 1.35+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.40
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Away
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.35
Betfair
1.30
Handicap -1 (AS Roma)
AS Roma -1
25.9%
@ 2.91-5.0%
Draw -1
24.1%
@ 3.47-1.9%
Atalanta +1
50.0%
@ 2.09+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.10
10Bet
2.95
Unibet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
Bet365
2.75
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Away
Marathonbet
2.16
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.05
Handicap +1 (AS Roma)
AS Roma +1
78.8%
@ 1.17+2.6%
Draw +1
13.8%
@ 5.85-1.4%
Atalanta -1
7.4%
@ 10.45-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.10
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
3.92
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
10.00
Marathonbet
5.75
Handicap +2 (AS Roma)
AS Roma +2
92.6%
@ 1.04+3.0%
Draw +2
5.5%
@ 13.00-1.7%
Atalanta -2
1.8%
@ 29.67-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
29.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AS Roma
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.27
1.00
0.20
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.46
1.00
0.12
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.12
1.00
0.29
0.80
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atalanta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.67
0.33
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.25
0.70
0.10
0.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Roma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.9%
@ 1.38+4.2%
Under 0.5
28.1%
@ 2.90-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
Under
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.97
Unibet
2.90
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.7%
@ 2.76+1.8%
Under 1.5
64.3%
@ 1.41-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.98
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.79
Marathonbet
2.79
Under
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 6.91-2.7%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.08+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
William Hil
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AS Roma over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.3%
@ 1.75+1.9%
Under
44.7%
@ 2.00-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Unibet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
AS Roma over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.2%
@ 4.62-3.8%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.16+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Betano
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
AS Roma over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.9%
@ 10.25-5.3%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.03+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Atalanta over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.7%
@ 2.72+1.5%
Under
64.3%
@ 1.42-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.97
Betano
2.70
Unibet
2.70
10Bet
2.65
1xBet
2.65
Under
10Bet
1.44
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Unibet
1.40
Atalanta over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.1%
@ 9.94-3.2%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.02+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Unibet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Atalanta over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
@ 15.00-5.4%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AS Roma
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.67
1.33
0.40
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.85
1.25
0.50
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.53
1.43
0.29
1.00
0.70
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atalanta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.87
0.80
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.67
1.25
1.25
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (16)
0.81
0.44
0.70
0.40
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Roma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.6%
@ 1.23+3.8%
Under 0.5
20.4%
@ 3.84-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.95
1xBet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.7%
@ 2.08+2.6%
Under 1.5
52.3%
@ 1.70-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Unibet
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.68
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.2%
@ 4.42-2.9%
Under 2.5
81.8%
@ 1.18+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
Unibet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AS Roma over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.8%
@ 1.50-1.3%
Under
39.2%
@ 2.46+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Under
1xBet
2.46
Betano
2.45
AS Roma over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.9%
@ 3.33-4.8%
Under
77.1%
@ 1.28+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Under
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.25
AS Roma over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.7%
@ 8.35-5.3%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.04+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.20
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.01
Atalanta over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.1%
@ 2.20+0.9%
Under
56.9%
@ 1.61-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.24
Marathonbet
2.21
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Atalanta over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.4%
@ 6.80-3.3%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.07+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.70
Marathonbet
7.50
Betano
6.50
10Bet
5.50
Under
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Atalanta over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.8%
@ 12.50-5.7%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.2%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Under 5.5
96.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.02
Unibet
1.01
+4.4%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.3%
Away under 2.5 goals
94.1%
1.04
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
+4.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.9%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
-
+3.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.7%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
+6.3%
Home +2 handicap
92.6%
1.04
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+3.0%
Under 4.5
90.9%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.09
+5.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.6%
1.07
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-
+3.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
+2.7%
Under 11.5 corners
84.9%
1.20
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
+8.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.8%
1.16
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
+3.8%
Over 19.5 fouls
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
+2.9%
Under 5.5 cards
81.7%
1.29
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
-
+9.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
81.4%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
+7.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.23
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
+3.8%
Home or Draw
78.8%
1.18
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.18
-1.3%
Home +1 handicap
78.8%
1.17
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
+2.6%
Away under 1.5 goals
78.0%
1.25
Marathonbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
+3.3%
Home over 0.5 goals
77.2%
1.14
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-4.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.1%
1.28
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.25
-
+4.8%
Under 10.5 corners
76.3%
1.37
1xBet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
Unibet
1.35
Betfair
1.30
+8.9%
Under 3.5
74.8%
1.33
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+4.2%
Away +2 handicap
74.1%
1.35
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.35
Betfair
1.30
+7.6%
Over 1.5
73.4%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
+0.4%
Over 2.5 cards
73.0%
1.31
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+2.0%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.9%
1.38
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
+4.2%
Home or Away
71.2%
1.26
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-3.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AS Roma · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Donyell Malen50%
Antonio Arena33%
Lorenzo Pellegrini21%
Evan Ferguson18%
Artem Dovbyk17%
Matías Soulé17%
Wesley13%
Evan Ndicka12%
Mario Hermoso11%
Paulo Dybala11%
Tommaso Baldanzi10%
Gianluca Mancini9%
Niccolò Pisilli9%
Stephan El Shaarawy7%
Robinio Vaz7%
Neil El Aynaoui6%
Manu Koné5%
Bryan Cristante4%
Jan Ziółkowski4%
Devyne Rensch3%
Zeki Çelik2%
Angeliño0%
Mile Svilar0%
Leon Bailey0%
Kostas Tsimikas0%
Bryan Zaragoza0%
Daniele Ghilardi0%
Lorenzo Venturino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mario Hermoso31%
Gianluca Mancini27%
Angeliño22%
Tommaso Baldanzi20%
Wesley18%
Stephan El Shaarawy18%
Neil El Aynaoui18%
Bryan Cristante17%
Jan Ziółkowski17%
Evan Ndicka17%
Bryan Zaragoza17%
Niccolò Pisilli12%
Zeki Çelik11%
Daniele Ghilardi11%
Manu Koné8%
Kostas Tsimikas8%
Devyne Rensch6%
Lorenzo Pellegrini6%
Donyell Malen5%
Matías Soulé5%
Evan Ferguson5%
Mile Svilar0%
Paulo Dybala0%
Leon Bailey0%
Artem Dovbyk0%
Robinio Vaz0%
Lorenzo Venturino0%
Antonio Arena0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Paulo Dybala22%
Leon Bailey18%
Bryan Zaragoza17%
Matías Soulé17%
Devyne Rensch12%
Lorenzo Pellegrini12%
Niccolò Pisilli12%
Artem Dovbyk11%
Donyell Malen10%
Evan Ferguson9%
Zeki Çelik9%
Manu Koné8%
Stephan El Shaarawy7%
Neil El Aynaoui6%
Mario Hermoso6%
Gianluca Mancini4%
Bryan Cristante4%
Kostas Tsimikas4%
Wesley3%
Angeliño0%
Mile Svilar0%
Evan Ndicka0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Daniele Ghilardi0%
Jan Ziółkowski0%
Robinio Vaz0%
Lorenzo Venturino0%
Antonio Arena0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Donyell Malen55%
Antonio Arena33%
Evan Ferguson23%
Paulo Dybala19%
Matías Soulé17%
Lorenzo Pellegrini9%
Stephan El Shaarawy7%
Evan Ndicka5%
Bryan Cristante4%
Niccolò Pisilli3%
Mario Hermoso3%
Manu Koné3%
Wesley3%
Gianluca Mancini2%
Angeliño0%
Mile Svilar0%
Leon Bailey0%
Kostas Tsimikas0%
Artem Dovbyk0%
Zeki Çelik0%
Devyne Rensch0%
Neil El Aynaoui0%
Bryan Zaragoza0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Daniele Ghilardi0%
Jan Ziółkowski0%
Robinio Vaz0%
Lorenzo Venturino0%
Atalanta
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giacomo Raspadori25%
Gianluca Scamacca25%
Nikola Krstović25%
Lazar Samardžić25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giacomo Raspadori25%
Nikola Krstović25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Lazar Samardžić0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gianluca Gaetano25%
Nicola Zalewski25%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Giacomo Raspadori0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Nikola Krstović0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Lazar Samardžić0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nikola Krstović50%
Lazar Samardžić25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Giacomo Raspadori0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
AS Roma's squad is €33m more valuable than Atalanta's (€471m vs €438m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
AS Roma's attack is €20m less valuable than Atalanta's (€138m vs €158m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
AS Roma's midfield is €10m less valuable than Atalanta's (€118m vs €128m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
AS Roma's defence is €63m more valuable than Atalanta's (€215m vs €153m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina