Pythia gives AS Roma a 45% win probability against Lazio in the Italy: Serie A on 2026-05-17, with 33% for the draw and 21% for Lazio. The model estimates around 1.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 0-0 the most likely scoreline (16.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (88%), Over 19.5 fouls (88%), Under 11.5 corners (86%), Over 2.5 cards (79%).
Results analysis
AS Roma finished 2-0 against Lazio (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 45% home win, 33% draw and 21% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (88%), Over 19.5 fouls (88%), Under 11.5 corners (86%), Over 2.5 cards (79%), Over 21.5 fouls (77%). Missed: Under 10.5 corners (77%), Under 5.5 cards (76%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AS Roma win✓ Hit
45.3%
Avg Implied 61.5% · @ 1.52
Edge
-16.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.4%
Avg Implied 22.9% · @ 4.09
Edge
+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lazio win✗ Miss
21.2%
Avg Implied 15.6% · @ 6.00
Edge
+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AS Roma
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.07
2.07
0.80
1.40
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.78
1.25
1.50
1.60
2.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.86
0.76
2.36
0.55
1.30
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.00
1.20
1.33
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
0.33
1.67
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (7)
0.43
1.29
0.75
1.75
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.24
0.71
1.75
1.00
0.78
0.44
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Roma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
57.2%
Under 1.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.0%
@ 1.87-21.0%
Under 2.5
71.0%
@ 1.87+21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.1%
Under 3.5
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
36.3%
No
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.6%
1-0
16.6%
1-1
14.0%
2-0 ✓
10.4%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
7.4%
1-2
4.5%
3-0
4.0%
AS Roma goals ↓
Lazio goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
9.6%
3.9%
0.9%
0.2%
1
17%
14%
4.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2
10%
7.4%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
3
4.0%
2.9%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.2%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AS Roma goals (down), columns = Lazio goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Lecce
1.00
Cremonese
0.89
Hellas Verona
0.55
Pisa
0.47
AS Roma is 0.50 points better than Lazio in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Lazio
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Cremonese
0.84
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Pisa
0.68
Hellas Verona
0.66
AS Roma is 0.47 goals better than Lazio in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
Inter
0.92
AC Milan
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Bologna
1.21
Parma
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Cremonese
1.50
Hellas Verona
1.61
Torino
1.66
Pisa
1.87
AS Roma is 0.24 goals better than Lazio in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.05).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Cremonese
46%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Pisa
40%
Hellas Verona
40%
AS Roma is 5.9 percentage points better than Lazio in terms of average possession (56% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AS Roma
For 5.1 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 14.4 · Total 27.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lazio
For 3.7 · Against 5.1 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 12.0 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AS Roma
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.8
8.6
4.1
4.2
3.9
28.1
27.7
28.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
8.9
8.0
9.7
3.7
4.6
3.0
27.5
28.1
27.0
vs Weaker (34)
8.6
9.1
8.1
4.3
4.1
4.4
28.4
27.5
29.3
% over line
36%
36%
36%
66%
68%
64%
88%
84%
92%
% under line
64%
64%
64%
34%
32%
36%
12%
16%
8%
This opponent (Lazio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.6
8.0
5.2
5.5
4.9
24.9
25.7
24.0
vs Stronger (8)
7.2
6.8
7.8
5.4
7.2
3.5
23.6
23.5
23.8
vs Similar (14)
10.1
11.5
8.3
5.4
6.1
4.5
23.8
26.9
19.7
vs Weaker (28)
8.6
9.3
7.9
5.1
4.7
5.4
25.8
25.6
25.9
% over line
34%
38%
29%
78%
85%
71%
74%
81%
67%
% under line
66%
62%
71%
22%
15%
29%
26%
19%
33%
This opponent (AS Roma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lecce
10.1
Udinese
9.7
Juventus
9.7
Bologna
9.5
Atalanta
9.4
Inter
9.3
Cremonese
9.1
Sassuolo
9.0
Cagliari
8.9
AC Milan
8.9
Fiorentina
8.8
Lazio
8.8
Genoa
8.8
AS Roma
8.7
Parma
8.7
Hellas Verona
8.7
Torino
8.6
Napoli
8.5
Pisa
8.3
Como
7.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.9
Como
4.7
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.3
Hellas Verona
4.2
Bologna
4.2
AS Roma
4.2
Pisa
4.1
Cremonese
4.0
Parma
3.9
Lecce
3.9
Cagliari
3.8
Juventus
3.8
Udinese
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Torino
3.5
Napoli
3.5
Inter
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cremonese
28.6
Bologna
28.6
AS Roma
28.1
Fiorentina
28.0
Cagliari
27.7
Genoa
27.7
Como
26.7
Hellas Verona
26.0
Lecce
25.8
Udinese
25.4
Pisa
25.4
Sassuolo
24.9
Lazio
24.9
Torino
24.6
Parma
24.4
Inter
24.0
Napoli
23.7
Juventus
23.2
AC Milan
21.9
Atalanta
21.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
33.6%
Under 9.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.2%
Under 3.5
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
76.8%
Under 21.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AS Roma
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.30
0.93
0.27
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.78
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.86
0.10
1.09
0.18
0.60
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.50
0.33
0.73
0.13
0.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.83
0.33
1.33
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.57
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (17)
0.18
0.35
0.38
0.50
0.00
0.22
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Roma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AS Roma over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Roma over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Roma over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Italy: Serie A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →