This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.10
1.35
1.18
0.92
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
1.33
1.00
1.38
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (17)
1.29
0.94
1.62
1.00
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ascoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
59.5%
Under 1.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
31.1%
@ 2.56-5.7%
Under 2.5
68.9%
@ 1.49+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.5%
Under 3.5
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.2%
No
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0 ✓
15.5%
1-1
14.9%
1-0
12.7%
0-1
12.3%
2-0
7.0%
2-1
6.7%
0-2
6.5%
1-2
6.5%
Ascoli goals ↓
Cittadella goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
12%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
1
13%
15%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
2
7.0%
6.7%
3.2%
1.0%
0.2%
3
2.3%
2.2%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ascoli goals (down), columns = Cittadella goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Parma
2.00
Como
1.92
Venezia
1.90
Cremonese
1.71
Catanzaro
1.51
Sampdoria
1.46
Palermo
1.44
Brescia
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.24
Modena
1.24
Reggiana
1.24
Cittadella
1.21
Pisa
1.21
Spezia
1.16
Bari
1.12
Ternana
1.10
Ascoli
1.08
FeralpiSalo
0.87
Lecco
0.68
Ascoli is 0.13 points worse than Cittadella in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
1.74
Parma
1.74
Palermo
1.59
Catanzaro
1.56
Como
1.53
Sampdoria
1.36
Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.21
Brescia
1.18
FeralpiSalo
1.16
Ternana
1.10
Modena
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Bari
1.05
Ascoli
1.00
Reggiana
1.00
Spezia
0.95
Lecco
0.92
Ascoli is 0.05 goals worse than Cittadella in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.86
Parma
0.92
Como
1.05
Brescia
1.08
Cosenza
1.11
Ascoli
1.11
Venezia
1.12
Reggiana
1.18
Cittadella
1.24
Modena
1.24
Bari
1.25
Sudtirol
1.26
Spezia
1.29
Sampdoria
1.33
Ternana
1.35
Palermo
1.37
Catanzaro
1.41
Pisa
1.42
FeralpiSalo
1.71
Lecco
1.95
Ascoli is 0.13 goals better than Cittadella in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Catanzaro
58%
Pisa
56%
Cremonese
56%
Venezia
52%
Reggiana
52%
Como
51%
Spezia
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Parma
50%
Bari
50%
Palermo
50%
Modena
50%
Cosenza
49%
Brescia
48%
Sudtirol
48%
Cittadella
47%
Lecco
47%
FeralpiSalo
45%
Ascoli
45%
Ternana
44%
Ascoli is 2.0 percentage points worse than Cittadella in terms of average possession (45% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ascoli
For 4.7 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.8 · Against 3.3 · Total 7.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.6 · Against 15.4 · Total 32.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cittadella
For 4.6 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 14.2 · Total 30.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ascoli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.4
9.7
2.2
2.2
2.3
30.8
33.8
28.5
vs Stronger (22)
10.1
11.2
8.3
2.6
3.1
2.1
31.1
33.8
26.7
vs Similar (27)
10.2
9.0
10.8
1.8
1.3
2.2
30.1
33.7
28.3
vs Weaker (1)
7.0
-
7.0
5.0
-
5.0
35.0
-
35.0
% over line
56%
62%
50%
30%
26%
33%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
44%
38%
50%
70%
74%
67%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.3
9.1
1.8
2.2
1.5
31.4
30.9
32.1
vs Stronger (20)
9.8
9.8
9.8
1.8
2.1
1.5
29.6
29.2
30.0
vs Similar (29)
7.7
7.0
8.5
1.6
1.8
1.4
32.4
31.0
34.2
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
8.0
8.0
-
37.0
37.0
-
% over line
33%
30%
38%
26%
31%
21%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
67%
70%
62%
74%
69%
79%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Ascoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Parma
11.0
Brescia
10.8
Pisa
10.5
Bari
10.3
Venezia
10.3
Modena
10.1
Ternana
10.0
Ascoli
9.9
Como
9.9
Cremonese
9.9
Palermo
9.8
Spezia
9.5
Reggiana
9.3
Sampdoria
9.1
Lecco
9.1
Cittadella
9.0
Cosenza
9.0
FeralpiSalo
8.7
Catanzaro
8.7
Sudtirol
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Pisa
6.1
Cittadella
6.0
Cosenza
6.0
Lecco
5.9
Ascoli
5.9
Sudtirol
5.8
Parma
5.8
Modena
5.6
Spezia
5.6
Reggiana
5.4
Palermo
5.4
Sampdoria
5.4
FeralpiSalo
5.4
Como
5.3
Catanzaro
5.2
Bari
5.2
Cremonese
5.1
Venezia
5.0
Brescia
5.0
Ternana
5.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cittadella
32.9
Ascoli
31.2
Palermo
31.0
Reggiana
30.8
Pisa
30.4
Bari
29.7
Como
29.6
Modena
29.1
Sudtirol
28.8
Sampdoria
28.7
Catanzaro
28.6
Parma
28.5
Cremonese
28.3
Cosenza
28.0
Spezia
27.8
Brescia
27.8
Ternana
27.6
Lecco
27.1
FeralpiSalo
27.1
Venezia
25.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.4%
Under 9.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
85.0%
Under 3.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
96.6%
Under 21.5
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ascoli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.44
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.71
0.29
0.57
0.29
0.86
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.27
0.86
0.43
0.38
0.12
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.71
0.53
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.67
0.38
0.62
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.47
1.12
0.38
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ascoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ascoli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ascoli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.90
0.64
0.57
0.38
1.19
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.00
0.43
0.71
0.57
1.29
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.87
0.86
0.43
0.12
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.65
0.65
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.67
0.62
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.47
0.50
0.62
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ascoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ascoli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ascoli
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pedro Mendes30%
Dávid Ďuriš18%
Eric Botteghin16%
Fabrizio Caligara12%
Pablo Rodríguez11%
Ilija Nestorovski10%
Patrizio Masini8%
Giuseppe Bellusci7%
Giacomo Manzari7%
Valerio Mantovani6%
Danilo Quaranta4%
Marcello Falzerano3%
Karim Zedadka0%
Eddy Gnahoré0%
Vincenzo Millico0%
Claud Adjapong0%
Emiliano Viviano0%
Sauli Väisänen0%
Luca Valzania0%
Nicola Falasco0%
Francesco Di Tacchio0%
Jeremiah Streng0%
Raffaele Celia0%
Devis Vásquez0%
Brian Bayeye0%
Samuel Giovane0%
Davide Barosi0%
Erdis Kraja0%
Tommaso Milanese0%
Simone D'Uffizi0%
Kevin Haveri0%
Yehiya Maiga Silvestri0%
Jacopo Tarantino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giuseppe Bellusci40%
Francesco Di Tacchio39%
Nicola Falasco35%
Patrizio Masini28%
Jeremiah Streng27%
Fabrizio Caligara27%
Danilo Quaranta23%
Samuel Giovane22%
Marcello Falzerano21%
Vincenzo Millico20%
Ilija Nestorovski20%
Erdis Kraja20%
Kevin Haveri17%
Eric Botteghin16%
Luca Valzania15%
Sauli Väisänen14%
Karim Zedadka13%
Simone D'Uffizi13%
Pablo Rodríguez11%
Devis Vásquez10%
Pedro Mendes7%
Tommaso Milanese7%
Claud Adjapong7%
Giacomo Manzari7%
Valerio Mantovani6%
Brian Bayeye5%
Emiliano Viviano4%
Eddy Gnahoré0%
Raffaele Celia0%
Dávid Ďuriš0%
Davide Barosi0%
Yehiya Maiga Silvestri0%
Jacopo Tarantino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Giacomo Manzari13%
Raffaele Celia12%
Pablo Rodríguez11%
Luca Valzania8%
Pedro Mendes7%
Tommaso Milanese7%
Valerio Mantovani6%
Marcello Falzerano6%
Nicola Falasco6%
Giuseppe Bellusci3%
Samuel Giovane3%
Francesco Di Tacchio3%
Karim Zedadka0%
Eddy Gnahoré0%
Vincenzo Millico0%
Claud Adjapong0%
Emiliano Viviano0%
Sauli Väisänen0%
Danilo Quaranta0%
Ilija Nestorovski0%
Eric Botteghin0%
Jeremiah Streng0%
Fabrizio Caligara0%
Dávid Ďuriš0%
Devis Vásquez0%
Brian Bayeye0%
Davide Barosi0%
Erdis Kraja0%
Patrizio Masini0%
Simone D'Uffizi0%
Kevin Haveri0%
Yehiya Maiga Silvestri0%
Jacopo Tarantino0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pedro Mendes22%
Fabrizio Caligara15%
Ilija Nestorovski15%
Jeremiah Streng9%
Eric Botteghin8%
Luca Valzania8%
Giuseppe Bellusci3%
Marcello Falzerano3%
Pablo Rodríguez3%
Karim Zedadka0%
Eddy Gnahoré0%
Vincenzo Millico0%
Claud Adjapong0%
Emiliano Viviano0%
Sauli Väisänen0%
Danilo Quaranta0%
Nicola Falasco0%
Valerio Mantovani0%
Francesco Di Tacchio0%
Raffaele Celia0%
Dávid Ďuriš0%
Devis Vásquez0%
Brian Bayeye0%
Samuel Giovane0%
Davide Barosi0%
Giacomo Manzari0%
Erdis Kraja0%
Patrizio Masini0%
Tommaso Milanese0%
Simone D'Uffizi0%
Kevin Haveri0%
Yehiya Maiga Silvestri0%
Jacopo Tarantino0%
Cittadella
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luca Pandolfi24%
Filippo Pittarello14%
Alessio Vita11%
Stefano Negro10%
Andrea Magrassi10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Tommy Maistrello9%
Enrico Baldini9%
Francesco Amatucci7%
Giuseppe Carriero6%
Simone Branca6%
Lorenzo Carissoni6%
Alessandro Salvi3%
Nicola Pavan3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Federico Giraudo0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Andrea Tessiore0%
Valerio Mastrantonio0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simone Branca47%
Federico Giraudo37%
Stefano Negro35%
Alessandro Salvi34%
Edoardo Sottini29%
Enrico Baldini27%
Lorenzo Carissoni27%
Matteo Angeli25%
Francesco Amatucci18%
Andrea Tessiore17%
Giuseppe Carriero13%
Valerio Mastrantonio12%
Filippo Pittarello11%
Alessio Rizza11%
Domenico Frare10%
Andrea Magrassi10%
Nicola Pavan10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Luca Pandolfi9%
Alessio Vita9%
Tommy Maistrello6%
Elhan Kastrati3%
Luca Maniero0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alessio Vita11%
Federico Giraudo11%
Alessandro Salvi10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Lorenzo Carissoni9%
Luca Pandolfi9%
Filippo Pittarello9%
Simone Branca6%
Stefano Negro5%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Valerio Mastrantonio4%
Nicola Pavan3%
Tommy Maistrello3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Giuseppe Carriero0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Enrico Baldini0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Filippo Pittarello23%
Luca Pandolfi15%
Stefano Negro10%
Alessio Vita9%
Giuseppe Carriero6%
Tommy Maistrello6%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Alessandro Salvi3%
Andrea Magrassi3%
Claudio Cassano3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Simone Branca0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Enrico Baldini0%
Federico Giraudo0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Valerio Mastrantonio0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →