This opponent (Ternana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ternana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.47
1.00
1.38
0.50
1.57
vs Stronger (19)
0.84
1.63
1.00
1.45
0.62
1.88
vs Similar (11)
0.64
1.18
1.00
1.20
0.33
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ascoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.0%
@ 2.26+0.2%
Under 2.5
58.0%
@ 1.62-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.3%
Under 3.5
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.9%
No
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
12.5%
0-0
10.7%
2-0 ✓
10.0%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.3%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
4.8%
Ascoli goals ↓
Ternana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.3%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
5.6%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10.0%
9.0%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.8%
4.4%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.8%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ascoli goals (down), columns = Ternana goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Parma
2.00
Como
1.92
Venezia
1.90
Cremonese
1.71
Catanzaro
1.51
Sampdoria
1.46
Palermo
1.44
Brescia
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.24
Modena
1.24
Reggiana
1.24
Cittadella
1.21
Pisa
1.21
Spezia
1.16
Bari
1.12
Ternana
1.10
Ascoli
1.08
FeralpiSalo
0.87
Lecco
0.68
Ascoli is 0.02 points worse than Ternana in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.10).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
1.74
Parma
1.74
Palermo
1.59
Catanzaro
1.56
Como
1.53
Sampdoria
1.36
Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.21
Brescia
1.18
FeralpiSalo
1.16
Ternana
1.10
Modena
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Bari
1.05
Ascoli
1.00
Reggiana
1.00
Spezia
0.95
Lecco
0.92
Ascoli is 0.10 goals worse than Ternana in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.10).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.86
Parma
0.92
Como
1.05
Brescia
1.08
Cosenza
1.11
Ascoli
1.11
Venezia
1.12
Reggiana
1.18
Cittadella
1.24
Modena
1.24
Bari
1.25
Sudtirol
1.26
Spezia
1.29
Sampdoria
1.33
Ternana
1.35
Palermo
1.37
Catanzaro
1.41
Pisa
1.42
FeralpiSalo
1.71
Lecco
1.95
Ascoli is 0.24 goals better than Ternana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Catanzaro
58%
Pisa
56%
Cremonese
56%
Venezia
52%
Reggiana
52%
Como
51%
Spezia
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Parma
50%
Bari
50%
Palermo
50%
Modena
50%
Cosenza
49%
Brescia
48%
Sudtirol
48%
Cittadella
47%
Lecco
47%
FeralpiSalo
45%
Ascoli
45%
Ternana
44%
Ascoli is 1.3 percentage points better than Ternana in terms of average possession (45% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ascoli
For 4.8 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 14.7 · Total 28.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ternana
For 5.2 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 12.2 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ascoli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
12.2
9.7
1.3
1.0
1.7
29.8
30.8
29.1
vs Stronger (21)
12.2
18.0
10.8
1.3
0.2
2.2
29.6
28.0
30.0
vs Similar (29)
9.7
10.8
8.3
1.3
1.4
1.2
30.0
31.5
28.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
100%
57%
16%
8%
23%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
25%
0%
43%
84%
92%
77%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Ternana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ternana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.0
10.4
1.1
1.5
0.7
26.6
26.4
26.8
vs Stronger (27)
9.6
10.4
7.5
1.3
1.9
0.6
25.3
24.4
27.5
vs Similar (23)
11.0
9.0
12.3
0.9
0.9
0.8
28.4
31.5
26.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
67%
57%
80%
18%
27%
8%
83%
86%
80%
% under line
33%
43%
20%
82%
73%
92%
17%
14%
20%
This opponent (Ascoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lecco
13.7
Modena
12.0
Brescia
11.6
Pisa
11.0
Parma
10.7
Venezia
10.3
Como
10.2
FeralpiSalo
10.2
Bari
10.1
Ascoli
10.1
Ternana
9.9
Palermo
9.6
Cremonese
9.6
Reggiana
9.6
Sampdoria
9.4
Catanzaro
9.3
Cittadella
9.3
Spezia
9.2
Cosenza
8.6
Sudtirol
7.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cittadella
6.2
Pisa
5.8
Ascoli
5.6
Cremonese
5.4
Modena
5.4
Parma
5.4
Como
5.3
Cosenza
5.2
Sudtirol
5.2
FeralpiSalo
5.2
Venezia
5.1
Reggiana
5.1
Spezia
4.9
Ternana
4.9
Palermo
4.9
Sampdoria
4.6
Bari
4.6
Brescia
4.6
Catanzaro
4.5
Lecco
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cittadella
33.4
Pisa
32.5
Reggiana
31.4
Ascoli
31.0
Palermo
30.6
Como
30.2
Sudtirol
30.0
Parma
28.8
Cremonese
28.7
Ternana
28.6
Bari
28.3
Spezia
27.5
Sampdoria
26.9
Cosenza
26.9
Brescia
26.7
FeralpiSalo
26.5
Venezia
26.5
Lecco
26.0
Catanzaro
25.7
Modena
25.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.8%
Under 9.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.7%
Under 3.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
91.2%
Under 21.5
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ascoli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.47
0.36
0.43
0.31
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.54
0.17
0.50
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.41
0.50
0.38
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Ternana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ternana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.75
0.69
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (19)
0.58
0.74
0.64
0.73
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.55
1.00
0.60
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ascoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ascoli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ascoli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.79
0.57
0.44
1.19
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.08
0.83
0.83
0.57
1.29
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.76
0.75
0.38
0.33
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ternana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ternana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.80
0.25
0.69
0.14
0.93
vs Stronger (19)
0.26
0.89
0.36
0.73
0.12
1.12
vs Similar (11)
0.09
0.64
0.00
0.60
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ascoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ascoli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ascoli
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pedro Mendes30%
Dávid Ďuriš18%
Eric Botteghin16%
Fabrizio Caligara12%
Pablo Rodríguez11%
Ilija Nestorovski10%
Patrizio Masini8%
Giuseppe Bellusci7%
Giacomo Manzari7%
Valerio Mantovani6%
Danilo Quaranta4%
Marcello Falzerano3%
Karim Zedadka0%
Eddy Gnahoré0%
Vincenzo Millico0%
Claud Adjapong0%
Emiliano Viviano0%
Sauli Väisänen0%
Luca Valzania0%
Nicola Falasco0%
Francesco Di Tacchio0%
Jeremiah Streng0%
Raffaele Celia0%
Devis Vásquez0%
Brian Bayeye0%
Samuel Giovane0%
Davide Barosi0%
Erdis Kraja0%
Tommaso Milanese0%
Simone D'Uffizi0%
Kevin Haveri0%
Yehiya Maiga Silvestri0%
Jacopo Tarantino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giuseppe Bellusci40%
Francesco Di Tacchio39%
Nicola Falasco35%
Patrizio Masini28%
Jeremiah Streng27%
Fabrizio Caligara27%
Danilo Quaranta23%
Samuel Giovane22%
Marcello Falzerano21%
Vincenzo Millico20%
Ilija Nestorovski20%
Erdis Kraja20%
Kevin Haveri17%
Eric Botteghin16%
Luca Valzania15%
Sauli Väisänen14%
Karim Zedadka13%
Simone D'Uffizi13%
Pablo Rodríguez11%
Devis Vásquez10%
Pedro Mendes7%
Tommaso Milanese7%
Claud Adjapong7%
Giacomo Manzari7%
Valerio Mantovani6%
Brian Bayeye5%
Emiliano Viviano4%
Eddy Gnahoré0%
Raffaele Celia0%
Dávid Ďuriš0%
Davide Barosi0%
Yehiya Maiga Silvestri0%
Jacopo Tarantino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Giacomo Manzari13%
Raffaele Celia12%
Pablo Rodríguez11%
Luca Valzania8%
Pedro Mendes7%
Tommaso Milanese7%
Valerio Mantovani6%
Marcello Falzerano6%
Nicola Falasco6%
Giuseppe Bellusci3%
Samuel Giovane3%
Francesco Di Tacchio3%
Karim Zedadka0%
Eddy Gnahoré0%
Vincenzo Millico0%
Claud Adjapong0%
Emiliano Viviano0%
Sauli Väisänen0%
Danilo Quaranta0%
Ilija Nestorovski0%
Eric Botteghin0%
Jeremiah Streng0%
Fabrizio Caligara0%
Dávid Ďuriš0%
Devis Vásquez0%
Brian Bayeye0%
Davide Barosi0%
Erdis Kraja0%
Patrizio Masini0%
Simone D'Uffizi0%
Kevin Haveri0%
Yehiya Maiga Silvestri0%
Jacopo Tarantino0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pedro Mendes22%
Fabrizio Caligara15%
Ilija Nestorovski15%
Jeremiah Streng9%
Eric Botteghin8%
Luca Valzania8%
Giuseppe Bellusci3%
Marcello Falzerano3%
Pablo Rodríguez3%
Karim Zedadka0%
Eddy Gnahoré0%
Vincenzo Millico0%
Claud Adjapong0%
Emiliano Viviano0%
Sauli Väisänen0%
Danilo Quaranta0%
Nicola Falasco0%
Valerio Mantovani0%
Francesco Di Tacchio0%
Raffaele Celia0%
Dávid Ďuriš0%
Devis Vásquez0%
Brian Bayeye0%
Samuel Giovane0%
Davide Barosi0%
Giacomo Manzari0%
Erdis Kraja0%
Patrizio Masini0%
Tommaso Milanese0%
Simone D'Uffizi0%
Kevin Haveri0%
Yehiya Maiga Silvestri0%
Jacopo Tarantino0%
Ternana
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gastón Pereiro30%
Filippo Distefano21%
Antonio Raimondo18%
Salim Diakite16%
Frederik Sørensen12%
Filippo Sgarbi11%
Tiago Casasola11%
Gregorio Luperini8%
Lorenzo Lucchesi7%
Alessandro Celli6%
César Falletti5%
Franco Carboni5%
Andrea Favilli4%
Federico Dionisi4%
Niklas Pyyhtiä3%
Marco Capuano0%
Federico Viviani0%
Antony Iannarilli0%
Tommaso Vitali0%
Valerio Mantovani0%
Jakub Łabojko0%
Gabriele Boloca0%
Kees de Boer0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Iulius Marginean0%
Christian Dalle Mura0%
Riccardo Zoia0%
Giacomo Faticanti0%
Lorenzo Amatucci0%
Costantino Favasuli0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jakub Łabojko35%
César Falletti32%
Salim Diakite32%
Gabriele Boloca29%
Lorenzo Lucchesi26%
Gastón Pereiro25%
Kees de Boer24%
Filippo Sgarbi22%
Gregorio Luperini22%
Lorenzo Amatucci22%
Federico Viviani20%
Iulius Marginean20%
Franco Carboni19%
Alessandro Celli19%
Federico Dionisi17%
Tommaso Vitali17%
Tiago Casasola13%
Andrea Favilli13%
Frederik Sørensen12%
Antony Iannarilli12%
Niklas Pyyhtiä10%
Antonio Raimondo10%
Costantino Favasuli10%
Filippo Distefano9%
Giacomo Faticanti9%
Marco Capuano8%
Christian Dalle Mura7%
Niccolò Corrado6%
Valerio Mantovani0%
Riccardo Zoia0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
César Falletti16%
Kees de Boer12%
Lorenzo Amatucci11%
Salim Diakite11%
Gastón Pereiro10%
Giacomo Faticanti9%
Tiago Casasola8%
Valerio Mantovani7%
Filippo Distefano6%
Gregorio Luperini6%
Niccolò Corrado6%
Jakub Łabojko4%
Lorenzo Lucchesi4%
Niklas Pyyhtiä3%
Costantino Favasuli3%
Antonio Raimondo2%
Frederik Sørensen0%
Andrea Favilli0%
Marco Capuano0%
Federico Viviani0%
Federico Dionisi0%
Antony Iannarilli0%
Tommaso Vitali0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Gabriele Boloca0%
Alessandro Celli0%
Iulius Marginean0%
Christian Dalle Mura0%
Franco Carboni0%
Riccardo Zoia0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Antonio Raimondo25%
Gastón Pereiro20%
César Falletti16%
Filippo Distefano12%
Gregorio Luperini11%
Andrea Favilli9%
Salim Diakite5%
Franco Carboni5%
Niklas Pyyhtiä3%
Frederik Sørensen0%
Marco Capuano0%
Federico Viviani0%
Federico Dionisi0%
Antony Iannarilli0%
Tommaso Vitali0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Tiago Casasola0%
Valerio Mantovani0%
Jakub Łabojko0%
Gabriele Boloca0%
Alessandro Celli0%
Kees de Boer0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Iulius Marginean0%
Christian Dalle Mura0%
Riccardo Zoia0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Giacomo Faticanti0%
Lorenzo Amatucci0%
Costantino Favasuli0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →