Atalanta are the clear favourites, with a 55% chance of victory, a 27% chance of a draw and only an 18% chance of a Cagliari win. The model’s pick is a home win and the expected total goals is 2.5, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, a 12.8% probability. Atalanta, playing at home against a weaker side, average 1.4 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, while Cagliari, away against a stronger opponent, average 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.4%), Under 6.5 (99.1% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.5% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (97.1% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 goals (96.5% with a 3% edge) and Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.4% with a 7% edge). Atalanta’s recent three-game winning streak and a 1-0 win over Bologna contrast with Cagliari’s return from a defeat to Inter, setting the stage for a tight, low-scoring contest.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Atalanta win
55.8%
Avg Implied 61.8% · @ 1.52
Edge
-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.59
William Hil
1.55
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
Draw
26.9%
Avg Implied 23.3% · @ 4.04
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.30
1xBet
4.20
Pinnacle
4.11
Unibet
4.10
Betano
4.10
Cagliari win
17.2%
Avg Implied 14.9% · @ 6.30
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.80
Marathonbet
6.65
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Betano
6.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Atalanta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.17
1.53
1.13
1.27
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
5.00
1.00
6.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (12)
1.33
1.17
2.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.50
0.69
1.40
0.50
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Cagliari) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cagliari
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.33
1.20
1.13
0.93
1.53
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.25
0.71
0.71
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.28
1.39
1.62
1.50
1.00
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.0%
@ 1.30-1.6%
Under 1.5
29.0%
@ 3.43+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Betano
3.45
Pinnacle
3.37
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.8%
@ 1.94-5.2%
Under 2.5
56.2%
@ 1.87+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.02
Pinnacle
1.99
SBO
1.98
Marathonbet
1.96
Betano
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
SBO
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.8%
@ 3.35-5.3%
Under 3.5
77.2%
@ 1.31+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.45
10Bet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.30
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Both teams to score
Yes
45.5%
@ 2.00-1.0%
No
54.5%
@ 1.74+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
No
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.2%@ 5.77+5.5%
1-1
12.6%@ 7.20+6.5%
2-0
11.7%@ 6.29+4.6%
0-0
9.9%@ 9.99+5.5%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.55+3.5%
3-0
6.3%@ 9.70+1.8%
0-1
5.9%@ 13.74+2.7%
3-1
5.1%@ 11.98+1.4%
Atalanta goals ↓
Cagliari goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
5.9%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
4.6%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.4%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
3
6.3%
5.1%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.6%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atalanta goals (down), columns = Cagliari goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Parma
1.18
Torino
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Atalanta is 0.42 points better than Cagliari in terms of average points per game (1.55 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Parma
0.74
Lecce
0.74
Atalanta is 0.29 goals better than Cagliari in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Lecce
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Fiorentina
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Atalanta is 0.45 goals better than Cagliari in terms of goals conceded per game (0.95 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Atalanta is 9.6 percentage points better than Cagliari in terms of average possession (55% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Atalanta
For 3.9 · Against 3.7 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 9.4 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cagliari
For 5.0 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 11.5 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atalanta
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.0
9.7
3.1
3.0
3.2
22.1
22.6
21.5
vs Stronger (2)
9.0
9.0
9.0
2.0
4.0
0.0
17.0
22.0
12.0
vs Similar (26)
9.0
9.5
8.6
3.8
3.7
3.8
21.6
22.0
21.2
vs Weaker (22)
9.8
8.6
11.2
2.5
2.2
2.8
23.0
23.2
22.7
% over line
39%
31%
48%
42%
35%
50%
55%
62%
48%
% under line
61%
69%
52%
58%
65%
50%
45%
38%
52%
This opponent (Cagliari) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cagliari
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.7
8.2
3.7
3.4
4.0
27.0
27.5
26.6
vs Stronger (17)
10.6
10.9
10.4
3.1
2.9
3.3
24.9
24.0
25.8
vs Similar (33)
8.0
9.1
6.9
3.9
3.6
4.3
28.2
29.2
27.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
39%
42%
36%
52%
48%
56%
82%
75%
88%
% under line
61%
58%
64%
48%
52%
44%
18%
25%
12%
This opponent (Atalanta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.8
Juventus
9.7
Inter
9.3
Bologna
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Cagliari
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Genoa
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.4
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.0
Genoa
27.1
Monza
27.0
Cagliari
26.8
Como
26.1
Lecce
25.4
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
23.9
Juventus
23.5
Napoli
23.3
Atalanta
22.0
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
31.6%
@ 1.73-21.4%
Under 9.5
68.4%
@ 1.95+21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.73
Under
Unibet
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
44.4%
Under 3.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.7%
Under 21.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Atalanta or Draw
84.6%
Avg Implied 84.8% · @ 1.11
Edge
-0.3%
56%
27%
17%
covers Atalanta + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Atalanta or Cagliari
72.6%
Avg Implied 77.1% · @ 1.22
Edge
-4.5%
56%
27%
17%
covers Atalanta + Cagliari
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Draw or Cagliari
42.8%
Avg Implied 38.1% · @ 2.47
Edge
+4.8%
56%
27%
17%
covers Draw + Cagliari
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Betano
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Atalanta over/under 0.5
Over
79.3%
@ 1.12-3.7%
Under
20.7%
@ 5.49+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Atalanta over/under 1.5
Over
46.8%
@ 1.69-8.5%
Under
53.2%
@ 2.09+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.73
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Under
1xBet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Atalanta over/under 2.5
Over
21.1%
@ 3.19-8.2%
Under
78.9%
@ 1.32+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.37
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
1xBet
3.22
10Bet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Atalanta over/under 3.5
Over
7.6%
@ 6.84-6.1%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.08+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.10
Marathonbet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Cagliari over/under 0.5
Over
50.6%
@ 1.74-2.9%
Under
49.4%
@ 2.00+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Cagliari over/under 1.5
Over
15.8%
@ 4.82-3.6%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.16+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Cagliari over/under 2.5
Over
3.5%
@ 13.38-3.6%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Cagliari over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
@ 51.00-99.4%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Atalanta, so a minus line means Atalanta give that many goals of a start and Cagliari receive them. At -1, Atalanta must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Atalanta win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Atalanta)
Atalanta -2
13.3%
@ 4.58-6.2%
Draw -2
18.1%
@ 4.34-2.5%
Cagliari +2
68.6%
@ 1.49+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Draw
Marathonbet
4.65
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.00
Away
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Handicap -1 (Atalanta)
Atalanta -1
31.4%
@ 2.39-6.1%
Draw -1
25.7%
@ 3.38-0.8%
Cagliari +1
42.8%
@ 2.50+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.47
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Unibet
2.32
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Away
Marathonbet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Unibet
2.48
10Bet
2.45
Handicap +1 (Atalanta)
Atalanta +1
84.6%
@ 1.11+4.2%
Draw +1
10.9%
@ 6.70-2.4%
Cagliari -1
4.6%
@ 13.97-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.30
Away
Bet365
19.00
10Bet
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Handicap +2 (Atalanta)
Atalanta +2
95.4%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Draw +2
3.6%
@ 20.50-1.0%
Cagliari -2
0.9%
@ 56.00-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
20.00
Away
Betfair
61.00
Bet365
51.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atalanta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.67
0.33
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.25
0.70
0.10
0.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Cagliari) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cagliari
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.53
0.60
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.75
0.29
0.57
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.56
0.75
0.62
0.30
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.5%
@ 1.38+1.7%
Under 0.5
30.5%
@ 2.92-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
Under
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.94
William Hil
2.90
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.9%
@ 2.82+0.8%
Under 1.5
66.1%
@ 1.40-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.94
Marathonbet
2.91
1xBet
2.91
Betano
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.5%
@ 7.29-2.3%
Under 2.5
89.5%
@ 1.07+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.60
William Hil
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Under
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atalanta over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.0%
@ 1.64-0.6%
Under
44.0%
@ 2.14+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Unibet
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Under
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.16
Unibet
2.12
Betano
2.07
Atalanta over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.0%
@ 4.31-3.5%
Under
82.0%
@ 1.18+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.20
10Bet
3.95
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Atalanta over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.7%
@ 9.50-6.1%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.04+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Cagliari over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.8%
@ 3.17+1.5%
Under
69.2%
@ 1.31-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.37
1xBet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
Unibet
3.05
Under
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Cagliari over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.0%
@ 9.75-3.6%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.03+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Cagliari over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atalanta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.87
0.80
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.67
1.25
1.25
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (16)
0.81
0.44
0.70
0.40
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Cagliari) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cagliari
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.50
0.43
0.14
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.83
0.88
0.88
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.7%
@ 1.25+2.5%
Under 0.5
22.3%
@ 3.78-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Under
Marathonbet
3.90
Betano
3.90
1xBet
3.90
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.1%
@ 2.14-1.8%
Under 1.5
57.9%
@ 1.67+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.25
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.18
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Under
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.0%
@ 4.64-3.2%
Under 2.5
83.0%
@ 1.18+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atalanta over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.0%
@ 1.45-0.3%
Under
36.0%
@ 2.61+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Under
Betano
2.62
1xBet
2.60
Atalanta over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.9%
@ 3.12-6.8%
Under
77.1%
@ 1.32+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Atalanta over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.8%
@ 7.55-6.4%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.05+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.20
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
Cagliari over/under 0.5 2H
Over
37.3%
@ 2.54+0.7%
Under
62.7%
@ 1.47-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.58
1xBet
2.55
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
Cagliari over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.4%
@ 9.50-2.4%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.03+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.00
1xBet
9.80
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Cagliari over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.1%
@ 13.50-5.8%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.8%
Under 5.5
97.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+4.9%
Away under 2.5 goals
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+3.6%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
Home +2 handicap
95.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+1.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+6.4%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.6%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.4%
Home under 3.5 goals
92.4%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+6.1%
Under 4.5
91.8%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.05
+6.4%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.07
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+2.3%
Under 5.5 cards
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.6%
1.11
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-0.3%
Home +1 handicap
84.6%
1.11
Marathonbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.07
-
+4.2%
Away under 1.5 goals
84.2%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+3.6%
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.0%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+3.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.0%
1.18
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
-
+3.5%
Over 19.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.3%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-3.7%
Home under 2.5 goals
78.9%
1.32
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
+8.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.7%
1.25
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
+2.5%
Under 3.5
77.2%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
10Bet
1.30
+5.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.1%
1.32
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
-
+6.8%
Under 4.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.6%
1.22
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
-4.5%
Over 1.5
71.0%
1.30
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.29
-1.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Atalanta
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giacomo Raspadori25%
Gianluca Scamacca25%
Nikola Krstović25%
Lazar Samardžić25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giacomo Raspadori25%
Nikola Krstović25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Lazar Samardžić0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gianluca Gaetano25%
Nicola Zalewski25%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Giacomo Raspadori0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Nikola Krstović0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Lazar Samardžić0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nikola Krstović50%
Lazar Samardžić25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Giacomo Raspadori0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Cagliari
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alessandro Deiola25%
P. Mendy25%
H. Winks0%
Michel Adopo0%
Elia Caprile0%
Zé Pedro0%
D. Maldini0%
A. Obert0%
J. Fazzini0%
R. Kofler0%
A. Romano0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Zé Pedro33%
Michel Adopo25%
Alessandro Deiola25%
D. Maldini25%
J. Fazzini25%
H. Winks0%
Elia Caprile0%
A. Obert0%
R. Kofler0%
A. Romano0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
P. Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
H. Winks0%
Michel Adopo0%
Alessandro Deiola0%
Elia Caprile0%
Zé Pedro0%
D. Maldini0%
A. Obert0%
J. Fazzini0%
R. Kofler0%
A. Romano0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
P. Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Fazzini25%
Juan Rodríguez25%
H. Winks0%
Michel Adopo0%
Alessandro Deiola0%
Elia Caprile0%
Zé Pedro0%
D. Maldini0%
A. Obert0%
R. Kofler0%
A. Romano0%
P. Mendy0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Atalanta's squad is €304m more valuable than Cagliari's (€438m vs €134m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Atalanta's attack is €107m more valuable than Cagliari's (€158m vs €51m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Atalanta's midfield is €97m more valuable than Cagliari's (€128m vs €31m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Atalanta's defence is €101m more valuable than Cagliari's (€153m vs €52m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina