This opponent (Napoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Napoli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.73
1.67
0.73
1.87
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.10
1.80
1.20
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.90
0.55
1.60
0.50
2.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.7%
Under 1.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.9%
@ 1.89+3.3%
Under 2.5
46.1%
@ 1.94-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.6%
Under 3.5
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
9.1%
0-1
8.0%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.2%
0-0
7.0%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
5.8%
Atalanta goals ↓
Napoli goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
8.0%
7.2%
3.7%
1.5%
1
6.3%
13%
9.1%
4.7%
1.9%
2
4.8%
7.4%
5.8%
3.0%
1.2%
3
2.0%
3.2%
2.5%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atalanta goals (down), columns = Napoli goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AC Milan
2.26
Inter
2.21
Napoli
2.08
Juventus
1.84
Lazio
1.68
AS Roma
1.66
Fiorentina
1.63
Atalanta
1.55
Hellas Verona
1.39
Sassuolo
1.32
Torino
1.32
Udinese
1.24
Bologna
1.21
Empoli
1.08
Sampdoria
0.95
Spezia
0.95
Salernitana
0.82
Cagliari
0.79
Genoa
0.74
Venezia
0.71
Atalanta is 0.53 points worse than Napoli in terms of average points per game (1.55 vs 2.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.21
Lazio
2.03
Napoli
1.95
AC Milan
1.82
Atalanta
1.71
Hellas Verona
1.71
Sassuolo
1.68
Udinese
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Fiorentina
1.55
Juventus
1.50
Empoli
1.32
Sampdoria
1.21
Torino
1.21
Bologna
1.16
Spezia
1.08
Cagliari
0.89
Venezia
0.89
Salernitana
0.87
Genoa
0.71
Atalanta is 0.24 goals worse than Napoli in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Napoli
0.82
AC Milan
0.82
Inter
0.84
Juventus
0.97
Torino
1.08
AS Roma
1.13
Atalanta
1.26
Fiorentina
1.34
Bologna
1.45
Udinese
1.53
Lazio
1.53
Hellas Verona
1.55
Genoa
1.58
Sampdoria
1.66
Sassuolo
1.74
Cagliari
1.79
Venezia
1.82
Empoli
1.84
Spezia
1.87
Salernitana
2.05
Atalanta is 0.45 goals worse than Napoli in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Atalanta
For 4.2 · Against 3.7 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 12.1 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Napoli
For 6.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 3.3 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 13.5 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atalanta
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.7
9.2
4.7
4.2
5.0
27.9
27.0
28.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
9.8
9.7
9.9
5.4
4.8
6.0
28.5
27.9
29.1
vs Weaker (30)
8.4
7.9
8.8
4.2
3.9
4.4
27.5
26.3
28.6
% over line
44%
42%
46%
64%
62%
65%
82%
79%
85%
% under line
56%
58%
54%
36%
38%
35%
18%
21%
15%
This opponent (Napoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Napoli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.3
8.8
4.8
4.9
4.7
26.3
25.7
26.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
8.6
9.1
8.2
5.0
5.5
4.6
26.6
25.8
27.3
vs Weaker (33)
9.2
9.4
9.1
4.7
4.6
4.8
26.1
25.6
26.6
% over line
44%
56%
32%
68%
68%
68%
88%
92%
84%
% under line
56%
44%
68%
32%
32%
32%
12%
8%
16%
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Empoli
10.5
Sassuolo
10.3
Sampdoria
10.1
Venezia
10.1
Salernitana
10.0
Juventus
10.0
Udinese
10.0
AC Milan
9.8
Cagliari
9.7
AS Roma
9.6
Inter
9.5
Hellas Verona
9.5
Bologna
9.5
Torino
9.2
Spezia
9.1
Napoli
9.0
Genoa
9.0
Atalanta
8.9
Fiorentina
8.7
Lazio
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
AS Roma
5.5
Lazio
5.2
Fiorentina
5.1
Venezia
5.0
Torino
4.9
Udinese
4.9
Spezia
4.9
Bologna
4.8
Napoli
4.8
Salernitana
4.7
Hellas Verona
4.7
Atalanta
4.7
Sassuolo
4.6
Cagliari
4.6
Genoa
4.5
AC Milan
4.4
Sampdoria
4.4
Juventus
4.4
Empoli
4.3
Inter
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torino
31.6
Venezia
28.7
Hellas Verona
28.6
Spezia
28.2
Salernitana
28.1
Atalanta
27.9
Udinese
27.9
Cagliari
27.6
Genoa
27.5
Fiorentina
27.2
Juventus
27.2
Sampdoria
26.9
Bologna
26.9
Empoli
26.8
Sassuolo
26.4
Napoli
26.3
AC Milan
26.0
AS Roma
25.8
Lazio
24.5
Inter
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
38.0%
Under 9.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.5%
Under 3.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
82.6%
Under 21.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atalanta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
0.73
0.60
1.00
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.77
0.29
1.00
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.35
1.12
0.25
1.22
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Napoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Napoli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.30
0.80
0.40
0.73
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.40
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.25
0.70
0.40
0.80
0.10
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atalanta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napoli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napoli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napoli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atalanta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.87
0.73
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.77
0.71
1.00
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (17)
1.06
0.41
1.00
0.50
1.11
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Napoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Napoli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
0.87
0.33
1.13
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.70
0.80
0.80
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (20)
1.15
0.30
0.90
0.10
1.40
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atalanta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napoli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napoli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napoli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Atalanta · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giacomo Raspadori25%
Gianluca Scamacca25%
Nikola Krstović25%
Lazar Samardžić25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giacomo Raspadori25%
Nikola Krstović25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Lazar Samardžić0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gianluca Gaetano25%
Nicola Zalewski25%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Giacomo Raspadori0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Nikola Krstović0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Lazar Samardžić0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nikola Krstović50%
Lazar Samardžić25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Giacomo Raspadori0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Napoli · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Scott McTominay29%
Alisson Santos27%
Rasmus Højlund26%
Kevin De Bruyne24%
Frank Anguissa18%
Antonio Vergara17%
Romelu Lukaku14%
Lorenzo Lucca9%
David Neres9%
Amir Rrahmani8%
Leonardo Spinazzola8%
Sam Beukema6%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo6%
Billy Gilmour5%
Matteo Politano5%
Noa Lang4%
Miguel Gutiérrez3%
Stanislav Lobotka3%
Eljif Elmas2%
Alex Meret0%
Juan Jesus0%
Vanja Milinković-Savić0%
Alessandro Buongiorno0%
Pasquale Mazzocchi0%
Mathías Olivera0%
Giovane0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Juan Jesus30%
Antonio Vergara17%
Noa Lang16%
Romelu Lukaku14%
David Neres13%
Amir Rrahmani12%
Matteo Politano12%
Eljif Elmas12%
Mathías Olivera9%
Alex Meret8%
Stanislav Lobotka8%
Leonardo Spinazzola8%
Alessandro Buongiorno7%
Alisson Santos7%
Sam Beukema6%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo6%
Billy Gilmour5%
Kevin De Bruyne5%
Rasmus Højlund5%
Frank Anguissa5%
Lorenzo Lucca5%
Scott McTominay2%
Vanja Milinković-Savić0%
Pasquale Mazzocchi0%
Miguel Gutiérrez0%
Giovane0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Neres17%
Antonio Vergara17%
Kevin De Bruyne14%
Rasmus Højlund14%
Leonardo Spinazzola10%
Matteo Politano10%
Eljif Elmas10%
Alex Meret8%
Noa Lang8%
Giovane8%
Scott McTominay7%
Pasquale Mazzocchi6%
Frank Anguissa5%
Amir Rrahmani4%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo3%
Mathías Olivera3%
Miguel Gutiérrez3%
Vanja Milinković-Savić3%
Stanislav Lobotka3%
Alessandro Buongiorno2%
Juan Jesus0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Sam Beukema0%
Billy Gilmour0%
Lorenzo Lucca0%
Alisson Santos0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Scott McTominay36%
Alisson Santos27%
Frank Anguissa18%
Rasmus Højlund14%
Matteo Politano10%
Antonio Vergara6%
Leonardo Spinazzola5%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo3%
Alex Meret0%
Noa Lang0%
David Neres0%
Kevin De Bruyne0%
Juan Jesus0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Amir Rrahmani0%
Eljif Elmas0%
Vanja Milinković-Savić0%
Alessandro Buongiorno0%
Pasquale Mazzocchi0%
Sam Beukema0%
Mathías Olivera0%
Stanislav Lobotka0%
Billy Gilmour0%
Miguel Gutiérrez0%
Lorenzo Lucca0%
Giovane0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
HV (34)
€57m
SAM (27)
€37m
EMP (27)
€20m
SPE (34)
€11m
Atalanta's squad is €21m less valuable than Napoli's (€438m vs €459m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
EMP (9)
€11m
SPE (10)
€3m
Atalanta's attack is €48m less valuable than Napoli's (€158m vs €206m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
HV (9)
€14m
SAM (6)
€7m
EMP (9)
€6m
SPE (11)
€4m
Atalanta's midfield is €27m more valuable than Napoli's (€128m vs €101m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
HV (15)
€30m
SAM (14)
€17m
EMP (9)
€4m
SPE (13)
€4m
Atalanta and Napoli have a similar defence value (both €153m).
Italy: Serie A 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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AC Milan
Inter
Juventus
Lazio
AS Roma
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona
Torino
Sassuolo
Udinese
Bologna
Empoli
Sampdoria
Spezia
Salernitana
Cagliari
Genoa
Venezia