Athletic Club is expected to emerge victorious against Sevilla, with a predicted score of 1-1 being the most likely outcome, albeit with a relatively low probability of 13.6%. The average number of goals expected in this match is 2.5, with a most likely total of 2 goals.
Athletic Club has been struggling at home, scoring an average of 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.25, while facing opponents of similar strength. Sevilla, on the other hand, has been performing averagely away from home, scoring 1 goal and conceding 1.67 against similar opponents.
The model predicts a home win with a 46% probability, a draw with 29%, and an away win with 25%. The model's selection for this match is a home win. The model also suggests the following selections: Home or Draw (77.9%), Under 3.5 (75.7%), Over 21.5 fouls (74%), Home or Away (73.3%), and Over 1.5 (72.6% with a 5% edge). The home win percentage is 46%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 25%.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with Sevilla turning a 1-1 draw into a 3-1 victory over Athletic Club, extending their two-game winning run. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was backed by a 48% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5%, Under 6.5 at 98.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.8%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.0%, and Under 5.5 at 94.4%. The match’s final score of 1-3 confirmed the away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Athletic Club win✗ Miss
47.6%
Avg Implied 55.2% · @ 1.72
Edge
-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Dafabet
1.74
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.58
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.76
Marathonbet
3.70
Betano
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Dafabet
3.65
Sevilla win✓ Hit
23.9%
Avg Implied 18.3% · @ 5.19
Edge
+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
5.50
1xBet
5.43
Dafabet
5.40
Pinnacle
5.39
Marathonbet
5.35
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Athletic Club
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.63
1.15
1.23
1.35
1.94
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.20
0.67
1.33
2.00
3.50
vs Similar (17)
1.06
1.47
1.22
1.22
0.88
1.75
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
1.62
2.00
1.00
1.71
1.71
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sevilla) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sevilla
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.47
1.13
1.07
1.07
1.87
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.25
1.00
1.00
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.36
1.15
1.08
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.4%
@ 1.39+4.9%
Under 1.5
27.6%
@ 2.90-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Unibet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Betano
2.95
Pinnacle
2.94
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.5%
@ 2.23+2.8%
Under 2.5
54.5%
@ 1.66-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.32
1xBet
2.31
Betano
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.72
SBO
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.67
888Sport
1.67
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.1%
@ 4.06+1.0%
Under 3.5
75.9%
@ 1.22-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.33
888Sport
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Unibet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.2%
@ 2.08+5.2%
No
49.8%
@ 1.70-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.15
10Bet
2.10
888Sport
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
No
Betfair
1.73
888Sport
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 6.55+6.7%
1-0
11.1%@ 5.40+2.8%
0-0
9.5%@ 8.23+4.0%
2-0
9.3%@ 6.91+2.8%
2-1
9.2%@ 7.96+3.6%
0-1
7.0%@ 10.94+2.9%
1-2
6.1%@ 15.68+3.3%
3-0
4.6%@ 12.32+1.0%
Athletic Club goals ↓
Sevilla goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
7.0%
4.1%
1.4%
0.3%
1
11%
14%
6.1%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.2%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.6%
4.6%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.7%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Athletic Club goals (down), columns = Sevilla goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Athletic Club is 0.05 points better than Sevilla in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Athletic Club is 0.08 goals worse than Sevilla in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Athletic Club is 0.05 goals better than Sevilla in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Athletic Club is 2.3 percentage points worse than Sevilla in terms of average possession (49% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Athletic Club
For 6.8 · Against 3.8 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 8.5 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sevilla
For 4.4 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 13.1 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Athletic Club
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.8
9.4
4.4
4.7
4.1
25.4
24.8
26.0
vs Stronger (10)
8.2
9.3
6.5
3.5
4.5
2.0
24.1
24.7
23.2
vs Similar (26)
10.3
10.6
10.0
4.0
4.2
3.8
25.1
23.1
26.5
vs Weaker (14)
9.4
8.7
9.9
5.7
5.7
5.8
27.1
28.2
26.2
% over line
48%
48%
48%
64%
74%
56%
72%
65%
78%
% under line
52%
52%
52%
36%
26%
44%
28%
35%
22%
This opponent (Sevilla) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sevilla
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.0
10.3
5.1
6.1
4.2
27.6
29.0
26.2
vs Stronger (7)
10.3
10.2
10.3
5.6
6.8
4.0
23.4
23.0
24.0
vs Similar (40)
9.0
7.5
10.4
5.1
5.8
4.5
28.3
30.3
26.5
vs Weaker (3)
9.5
10.0
9.0
4.0
9.0
1.5
28.0
29.0
27.0
% over line
43%
38%
48%
64%
79%
50%
82%
83%
80%
% under line
57%
62%
52%
36%
21%
50%
18%
17%
20%
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.6
Alaves
10.5
Racing Santander
10.5
Real Sociedad
10.2
Levante
10.0
Espanyol
9.8
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Osasuna
9.1
Villarreal
9.1
Deportivo La Coruna
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Malaga
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.7
Getafe
5.4
Malaga
5.2
Sevilla
5.2
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Real Sociedad
5.0
Alaves
4.9
Osasuna
4.9
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.8
Real Betis
4.8
Levante
4.8
Elche
4.7
Celta Vigo
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Barcelona
4.4
Villarreal
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.2
Alaves
28.9
Elche
27.9
Sevilla
27.6
Racing Santander
26.7
Real Sociedad
26.6
Rayo Vallecano
25.8
Espanyol
25.7
Athletic Club
25.4
Osasuna
25.3
Levante
24.8
Malaga
24.6
Celta Vigo
24.5
Villarreal
24.5
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
24.0
Real Betis
23.7
Deportivo La Coruna
23.6
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.2%
@ 1.86+2.2%
Under 9.5
47.8%
@ 1.87-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Unibet
1.89
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.6%
@ 1.40+2.1%
Under 3.5
31.4%
@ 2.77-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.01
Unibet
2.80
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.60
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
75.8%
Under 21.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Athletic Club or Draw✗ Miss
77.9%
Avg Implied 81.2% · @ 1.16
Edge
-3.2%
48%
28%
24%
covers Athletic Club + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
888Sport
1.18
Athletic Club or Sevilla✓ Hit
73.3%
Avg Implied 74.3% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.0%
48%
28%
24%
covers Athletic Club + Sevilla
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
William Hil
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Draw or Sevilla✓ Hit
48.7%
Avg Implied 44.6% · @ 2.12
Edge
+4.2%
48%
28%
24%
covers Draw + Sevilla
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
1xBet
2.17
Betano
2.15
Unibet
2.12
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Athletic Club over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.1%
@ 1.19+2.7%
Under
18.9%
@ 4.31-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.45
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Athletic Club over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
49.6%
@ 1.99+2.4%
Under
50.4%
@ 1.77-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.03
BetVictor
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Under
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Unibet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
Athletic Club over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.3%
@ 4.10+0.6%
Under
76.7%
@ 1.20-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.43
BetVictor
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Athletic Club over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.8%
@ 9.21-1.4%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.04+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
10.00
1xBet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Sevilla over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.0%
@ 1.71+9.7%
Under
36.0%
@ 2.03-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
10Bet
2.05
888Sport
2.05
Unibet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Sevilla over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
27.2%
@ 4.60+6.9%
Under
72.8%
@ 1.17-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.85
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.55
Under
Betano
1.19
888Sport
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Sevilla over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
8.4%
@ 13.75+1.5%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.02-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
888Sport
15.00
Marathonbet
14.50
1xBet
14.50
Superbet
14.00
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Unibet
1.01
Sevilla over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 37.00-0.6%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
45.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Athletic Club, so a minus line means Athletic Club give that many goals of a start and Sevilla receive them. At -1, Athletic Club must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Athletic Club win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Athletic Club)Actual: Sevilla
Athletic Club -2
12.2%
@ 6.30-2.1%
Draw -2
16.1%
@ 4.83-2.6%
Sevilla +2
71.7%
@ 1.34+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.15
Draw
Marathonbet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Unibet
4.60
Away
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Handicap -1 (Athletic Club)Actual: Sevilla
Athletic Club -1
28.3%
@ 3.02-1.8%
Draw -1
23.0%
@ 3.34-4.2%
Sevilla +1
48.7%
@ 2.12+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Draw
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.34
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Away
Marathonbet
2.17
Superbet
2.12
Unibet
2.12
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Handicap +1 (Athletic Club)Actual: Sevilla
Athletic Club +1
77.9%
@ 1.16+0.7%
Draw +1
13.7%
@ 5.90-1.5%
Sevilla -1
8.4%
@ 11.62+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.50
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
5.75
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
13.00
Superbet
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Handicap +2 (Athletic Club)Actual: Draw
Athletic Club +2
91.6%
@ 1.02-0.3%
Draw +2
6.1%
@ 16.00+0.2%
Sevilla -2
2.4%
@ 42.50+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
51.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Athletic Club
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.62
0.46
0.53
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.59
0.67
0.56
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
1.12
0.00
0.00
0.71
1.29
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sevilla) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sevilla
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.32
0.56
0.38
0.46
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.3%
@ 1.46+5.2%
Under 0.5
30.7%
@ 2.62-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
BetVictor
1.48
Pinnacle
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.67
Pinnacle
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Unibet
2.63
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.7%
@ 3.24+3.6%
Under 1.5
67.3%
@ 1.33-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.42
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Betano
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Under
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.5%
@ 8.42-0.7%
Under 2.5
89.5%
@ 1.05+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
10.00
William Hil
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.70
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.07
William Hil
1.06
10Bet
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Athletic Club over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
49.2%
@ 1.83-1.7%
Under
50.8%
@ 1.89+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Superbet
1.82
Under
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Superbet
1.90
Unibet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.86
Athletic Club over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.2%
@ 5.14-4.9%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.13+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Betano
5.10
Superbet
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Under
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Athletic Club over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 13.00-4.0%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Sevilla over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
36.3%
@ 3.07+5.9%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.34-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.39
Betano
3.05
Superbet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
3.04
Under
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Sevilla over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 11.38-0.8%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.02+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Sevilla over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 60.00-98.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
60.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Athletic Club
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.54
0.77
0.82
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.60
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.88
0.56
0.67
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sevilla) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sevilla
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.67
0.53
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.80
0.77
0.62
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.3%
Under 0.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.3%
Under 1.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.0%
Under 2.5
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Athletic Club over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.7%
Under
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athletic Club over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.1%
Under
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athletic Club over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sevilla over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.8%
Under
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sevilla over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sevilla over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
-0.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
91.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Unibet
1.01
-1.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
91.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.07
William Hil
1.06
10Bet
1.06
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.8%
1.13
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.06
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.5%
1.18
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
-
-
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
81.1%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
77.9%
1.16
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
888Sport
1.18
-3.2%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
77.9%
1.16
Marathonbet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
+0.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
76.7%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.9%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
-1.0%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.3%
1.27
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
William Hil
1.29
888Sport
1.29
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
72.8%
1.17
Betano
1.19
888Sport
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
-6.9%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.4%
1.39
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
71.7%
1.34
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.5%
1.30
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+1.2%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Athletic Club
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Berenguer33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gorka Guruzeta67%
Beñat Gerenabarrena33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Peio Canales0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Iñaki Williams33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Oihan Sancet33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
Sevilla
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chidera Ejuke33%
Jon Guridi33%
Peque Fernández33%
Isaac Romero33%
Miguel Sierra33%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Gabriel Suazo0%
Lucien Agoumé0%
Juan Iglesias0%
Robbie Ure0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Isaac Romero100%
Gabriel Suazo67%
Jon Guridi67%
Lucien Agoumé33%
Peque Fernández33%
Miguel Sierra33%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Chidera Ejuke0%
Juan Iglesias0%
Robbie Ure0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isaac Romero33%
Robbie Ure33%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Gabriel Suazo0%
Lucien Agoumé0%
Chidera Ejuke0%
Jon Guridi0%
Juan Iglesias0%
Peque Fernández0%
Miguel Sierra0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Robbie Ure33%
Miguel Sierra33%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Gabriel Suazo0%
Lucien Agoumé0%
Chidera Ejuke0%
Jon Guridi0%
Juan Iglesias0%
Peque Fernández0%
Isaac Romero0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Athletic Club's squad is €107m more valuable than Sevilla's (€241m vs €134m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Athletic Club's attack is €61m more valuable than Sevilla's (€106m vs €45m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Athletic Club's midfield is €34m more valuable than Sevilla's (€57m vs €23m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Athletic Club's defence is €12m more valuable than Sevilla's (€77m vs €65m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga