Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Barcelona or Drawâ Hit
38.9%
Avg Implied -
19%
20%
61%
covers Barcelona + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Barcelona or Real Madridâ Miss
80.3%
Avg Implied -
19%
20%
61%
covers Barcelona + Real Madrid
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Real Madridâ Hit
80.8%
Avg Implied -
19%
20%
61%
covers Draw + Real Madrid
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
đ„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Barcelona over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.1%
Under
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
40.4%
Under
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.4%
Under
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.8%
Under
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
71.4%
Under
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
45.8%
Under
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âïž 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Barcelona, so a minus line means Barcelona give that many goals of a start and Real Madrid receive them. At -1, Barcelona must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Barcelona win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Barcelona)Actual: Real Madrid
Barcelona -2
2.8%
Draw -2
5.5%
Real Madrid +2
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Barcelona)Actual: Real Madrid
Barcelona -1
8.3%
Draw -1
10.9%
Real Madrid +1
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Barcelona)Actual: Barcelona
Barcelona +1
38.9%
Draw +1
20.2%
Real Madrid -1
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Barcelona)Actual: Barcelona
Barcelona +2
59.1%
Draw +2
17.9%
Real Madrid -2
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
â±ïž 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Barcelona
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.47
1.44
0.38
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.00
2.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.13
0.30
1.23
0.23
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.57
1.21
0.64
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.57
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (23)
1.30
0.57
1.40
0.70
1.23
0.46
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Barcelona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
â±ïž 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Barcelona
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.63
1.38
0.69
1.93
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.43
0.86
0.33
1.33
2.25
0.50
vs Weaker (23)
1.70
0.57
1.62
0.54
1.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.21
0.79
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (23)
1.00
0.57
1.30
0.80
0.77
0.38
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Barcelona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 8.5 corners
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 7.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 9.5 corners
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away +2 handicap
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 10.5 corners
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 6.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 11.5 corners
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Draw or Away
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away +1 handicap
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home or Away
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 5.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away over 1.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đ° 14. Squad value
đ° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GIR (28)
€114m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
MAL (27)
€41m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
ZAR (20)
€9m
ELD (20)
€7m
MIR (21)
€6m
CL (20)
€6m
HUE (21)
€5m
Barcelona's squad is €175m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€1282m vs €1456m).
âïž Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
GIR (12)
€64m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
ALM (11)
€38m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
MAL (11)
€23m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
ZAR (8)
€4m
COR (9)
€4m
ELD (8)
€3m
CL (8)
€3m
HUE (9)
€2m
MIR (6)
€2m
Barcelona's attack is €252m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€590m vs €842m).
đ§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GIR (7)
€28m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
MAL (5)
€6m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
ZAR (4)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
HUE (4)
€1m
MIR (4)
€1m
CL (4)
€1m
Barcelona's midfield is €86m more valuable than Real Madrid's (€324m vs €238m).
đĄïž Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
GIR (9)
€22m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
MAL (11)
€9m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
MIR (11)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
ZAR (8)
€3m
CL (8)
€2m
HUE (8)
€2m
Barcelona's defence is €9m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€368m vs €377m).
Spain: La Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →