Benfica’s dominant home form and the model’s 77 % chance of a home win make them the clear favourite, especially against Estoril’s weaker away record and recent 0-2 loss. The model predicts an average of 3.7 goals, with the most likely total being three goals at 21 %. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Benfica, carrying a 9.6 % probability. Benfica averages 3.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded at home against weaker opponents, while Estoril, playing away against stronger teams, averages only 0.5 goals scored and concedes 2.0. The match outcome probabilities are 77 % for a home win, 15 % for a draw, and 8 % for an away win. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.5 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (99.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7 %), Home +2 handicap (97.3 %), Under 7.5 (96.3 % with a 2 % edge), Away under 1.5 HT goals (94.3 % with a 3 % edge), Home over 0.5 goals (94.2 % with a 4 % edge), and Away under 2.5 goals (93.8 % with a 2 % edge).
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Benfica secured a 2-1 win over Estoril, extending their four-game winning streak at home. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 77% probability and was correct. The most likely scoreline of 2-0 fell short, but the 2-1 result still matched the model’s top pick. Every suggested selection hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Home +2 handicap (97.4%), Under 7.5 (96.3%), Away under 1.5 HT goals (94.4%), Home over 0.5 goals (94.3%), and Away under 2.5 goals (93.9%). The model’s overall accuracy was impressive, confirming the favoured outcome and the bulk of its selections.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Benfica win✓ Hit
77.2%
Avg Implied 85.0% · @ 1.11
Edge
-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Dafabet
1.12
Draw✗ Miss
14.6%
Avg Implied 9.9% · @ 9.51
Edge
+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
11.40
Pinnacle
10.14
Dafabet
10.00
William Hil
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Estoril win✗ Miss
8.2%
Avg Implied 5.0% · @ 18.78
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
24.00
Pinnacle
22.18
Dafabet
20.00
Betano
20.00
Betfair
20.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Benfica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
1.00
3.00
0.93
1.81
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.57
2.00
1.67
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (23)
2.70
0.83
3.27
0.73
2.17
0.92
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Estoril) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estoril
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.70
1.69
1.69
1.36
1.71
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.00
1.75
2.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.68
1.59
1.67
1.58
1.70
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.4%
@ 1.06+1.4%
Under 1.5
10.6%
@ 7.76-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Under
Betfair
8.50
BetVictor
8.50
Superbet
8.20
10Bet
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
72.2%
@ 1.27-1.4%
Under 2.5
27.8%
@ 3.54+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.87
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Betano
3.55
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.5%
@ 1.73-3.1%
Under 3.5
48.5%
@ 2.08+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.76
Unibet
1.75
Betano
1.75
SBO
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.18
1xBet
2.16
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.0%
@ 1.98+9.2%
No
44.0%
@ 1.75-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.05
Betano
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Unibet
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
No
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Betfair
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.7%@ 7.25+3.5%
3-0
9.2%@ 6.78+2.6%
2-1 ✓
8.6%@ 10.48+4.3%
3-1
8.2%@ 9.88+3.6%
1-1
6.6%@ 16.05+3.8%
4-0
6.6%@ 8.23+1.1%
1-0
6.2%@ 10.86+2.0%
4-1
5.8%@ 11.80+2.0%
Benfica goals ↓
Estoril goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.0%
1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
1
6.2%
6.6%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
2
9.7%
8.6%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
3
9.2%
8.2%
3.6%
1.1%
0.2%
4
6.6%
5.8%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Benfica goals (down), columns = Estoril goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Benfica is 1.21 points better than Estoril in terms of average points per game (2.35 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Benfica is 0.59 goals better than Estoril in terms of goals scored per game (2.18 vs 1.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Benfica is 0.94 goals better than Estoril in terms of goals conceded per game (0.74 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Benfica is 5.1 percentage points better than Estoril in terms of average possession (58% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Benfica
For 7.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 3.1 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 13.1 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estoril
For 4.1 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Benfica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.7
10.8
4.8
4.9
4.8
25.7
26.8
24.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
9.2
8.2
10.1
6.1
6.5
5.7
24.6
25.3
24.0
vs Weaker (37)
10.6
10.2
11.0
4.4
4.3
4.5
26.2
27.4
25.1
% over line
59%
59%
58%
68%
74%
63%
74%
77%
71%
% under line
41%
41%
42%
32%
26%
37%
26%
23%
29%
This opponent (Estoril) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estoril
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.5
8.8
4.4
4.0
4.8
26.8
25.9
27.8
vs Stronger (14)
8.5
8.5
8.5
4.6
4.8
4.5
26.1
26.0
26.2
vs Similar (35)
9.4
10.0
8.8
4.4
3.6
5.2
27.1
25.8
28.3
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
40%
46%
33%
74%
68%
80%
85%
83%
88%
% under line
60%
54%
67%
26%
32%
20%
15%
17%
12%
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.5
Rio Ave
10.4
Nacional
10.2
Benfica
10.1
Sporting CP
9.8
Casa Pia
9.6
Academico Viseu
9.5
GIL Vicente
9.1
Estoril
9.0
Santa Clara
9.0
Estrela
9.0
Alverca
8.9
FC Porto
8.9
Arouca
8.9
Guimaraes
8.6
SC Braga
8.2
Maritimo
8.1
Moreirense
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
5.9
Maritimo
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.6
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.5
Famalicao
5.4
Nacional
5.4
Guimaraes
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
FC Porto
5.2
Benfica
5.1
Sporting CP
5.1
Rio Ave
5.0
GIL Vicente
4.9
SC Braga
4.9
Alverca
4.8
Estoril
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.0
Santa Clara
30.1
Estrela
29.9
Moreirense
29.5
Casa Pia
29.2
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.9
Rio Ave
27.0
Nacional
26.9
Estoril
26.8
Sporting CP
26.2
FC Porto
26.1
Arouca
26.0
Benfica
25.6
Academico Viseu
25.3
SC Braga
24.6
Maritimo
24.6
Alverca
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.9%
@ 1.52-14.2%
Under 9.5
54.1%
@ 2.29+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.66
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Under
Betano
2.50
Superbet
2.37
Marathonbet
2.31
Pinnacle
2.26
1xBet
2.25
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
73.9%
@ 1.67+18.6%
Under 3.5
26.1%
@ 2.06-18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.62
Under
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.05
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.2%
Under 21.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Benfica or Draw✓ Hit
91.8%
Avg Implied 93.6% · @ 1.02
Edge
-1.8%
77%
15%
8%
covers Benfica + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
William Hil
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Benfica or Estoril✓ Hit
85.4%
Avg Implied 90.3% · @ 1.06
Edge
-4.9%
77%
15%
8%
covers Benfica + Estoril
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Draw or Estoril✗ Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied 16.1% · @ 5.92
Edge
+6.7%
77%
15%
8%
covers Draw + Estoril
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
7.40
William Hil
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
Betano
6.20
10Bet
6.00
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Benfica over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
94.3%
@ 1.02+1.1%
Under
5.7%
@ 13.81-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Under
Bet365
17.00
1xBet
14.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Benfica over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
77.8%
@ 1.15-2.8%
Under
22.2%
@ 4.80+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
Superbet
5.15
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Benfica over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
54.4%
@ 1.50-7.9%
Under
45.6%
@ 2.48+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.65
BetVictor
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Betfair
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
Benfica over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
32.1%
@ 2.26-9.2%
Under
67.9%
@ 1.59+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.38
Unibet
2.33
Pinnacle
2.32
1xBet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Estoril over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
58.8%
@ 1.94+10.8%
Under
41.2%
@ 1.79-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.84
Superbet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Estoril over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
22.3%
@ 5.67+5.9%
Under
77.7%
@ 1.12-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
BetVictor
5.75
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Estoril over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 17.75+0.7%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.01-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Estoril over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 65.00-98.7%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
65.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Benfica, so a minus line means Benfica give that many goals of a start and Estoril receive them. At -1, Benfica must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Benfica win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Benfica)Actual: Estoril
Benfica -2
37.1%
@ 1.88-10.5%
Draw -2
20.9%
@ 4.13-0.8%
Estoril +2
42.0%
@ 2.92+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Betfair
1.83
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Away
Betfair
3.10
Superbet
3.05
10Bet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.88
Bet365
2.75
Handicap -1 (Benfica)Actual: Draw
Benfica -1
58.0%
@ 1.33-9.0%
Draw -1
19.2%
@ 4.91+1.0%
Estoril +1
22.8%
@ 5.99+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Draw
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.80
Handicap +1 (Benfica)Actual: Benfica
Benfica +1
91.8%
@ 1.02-1.2%
Draw +1
5.6%
@ 19.00+0.6%
Estoril -1
2.6%
@ 48.50+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
19.00
Away
Betfair
56.00
Bet365
41.00
Handicap +2 (Benfica)Actual: Benfica
Benfica +2
97.4%
Draw +2
2.0%
Estoril -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Benfica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.33
1.43
0.43
1.00
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.71
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (23)
1.39
0.22
1.64
0.27
1.17
0.17
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Estoril) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estoril
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
0.69
1.06
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.62
0.50
1.75
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.73
0.75
0.83
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.5%
@ 1.16-1.3%
Under 0.5
20.5%
@ 4.88+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
46.7%
@ 1.80-5.3%
Under 1.5
53.3%
@ 1.94+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
SBO
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Under
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
SBO
1.99
Betfair
1.95
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.5%
@ 3.49-6.1%
Under 2.5
79.5%
@ 1.27+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
William Hil
3.50
Under
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.25
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Benfica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
72.7%
@ 1.24-2.4%
Under
27.3%
@ 3.73+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
10Bet
3.95
Superbet
3.80
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.45
Benfica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
33.9%
@ 2.15-9.3%
Under
66.1%
@ 1.64+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.18
Unibet
2.16
1xBet
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Superbet
1.67
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.64
Betano
1.60
Benfica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.4%
@ 4.46-9.4%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.17+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
4.65
1xBet
4.60
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Under
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Estoril over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
29.2%
@ 3.54+2.9%
Under
70.8%
@ 1.26-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.98
10Bet
3.65
Unibet
3.45
Betano
3.45
Superbet
3.45
Under
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Estoril over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.6%
@ 13.38-1.5%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.02+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Estoril over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 70.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
70.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Benfica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.57
0.50
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.86
1.33
0.67
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.30
0.61
1.64
0.45
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Estoril) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estoril
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
1.00
0.62
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.38
1.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.86
0.92
0.75
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.9%
@ 1.09-1.2%
Under 0.5
15.1%
@ 6.73+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Under
1xBet
7.80
Superbet
7.00
Betano
6.70
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
59.0%
@ 1.49-3.9%
Under 1.5
41.0%
@ 2.51+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.57
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.65
10Bet
2.62
1xBet
2.59
Marathonbet
2.59
Superbet
2.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
30.2%
@ 2.45-7.8%
Under 2.5
69.8%
@ 1.51+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.50
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.36
Under
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Benfica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
80.1%
@ 1.14-1.3%
Under
19.9%
@ 4.97+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Under
1xBet
5.10
Betano
4.90
Superbet
4.90
Benfica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
39.7%
@ 1.70-14.7%
Under
60.3%
@ 2.03+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Under
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Benfica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 3.15-14.9%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.31+14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Estoril over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
35.5%
@ 2.80+2.5%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.38-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.84
Superbet
2.82
Betano
2.80
1xBet
2.75
Under
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Estoril over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.5%
@ 10.50-0.4%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.03+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Estoril over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 50.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
94.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
91.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
William Hil
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
91.8%
1.02
Betfair
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
91.4%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.07
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
89.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
88.6%
1.17
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
-
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.7%
1.28
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.24
-
-
-
+16.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
85.5%
1.31
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
-
+14.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
85.4%
1.06
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Superbet
1.06
-4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.9%
1.09
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
82.4%
1.19
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
80.1%
1.14
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
79.5%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
79.5%
1.27
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.25
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
77.8%
1.15
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
77.7%
1.12
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-5.9%
✓ Hit
Home win
77.2%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Dafabet
1.12
-7.8%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.7%
1.51
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.46
+16.1%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.9%
1.67
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.62
-
-
-
+18.6%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 HT goals
72.7%
1.24
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
-
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
72.2%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.8%
1.26
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
-2.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Benfica
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vangelis Pavlidis100%
Gianluca Prestianni67%
Clément Lenglet33%
Rafa Silva33%
Jhon Durán33%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Tomás Araújo0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tomás Araújo33%
Georgiy Sudakov33%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Vangelis Pavlidis0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Gianluca Prestianni0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Bah33%
Leandro Barreiro33%
Vangelis Pavlidis33%
Enzo Barrenechea33%
Tomás Araújo33%
Gianluca Prestianni33%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gianluca Prestianni100%
Vangelis Pavlidis67%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Tomás Araújo0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Estoril
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yanis Begraoui50%
Ferro0%
Joel Robles0%
Rafik Guitane0%
João Carvalho0%
Xeka0%
Antef Tsoungui0%
Fernando Medrano0%
Ricard Sánchez0%
André Lacximicant0%
Ismael Sierra Arnal0%
Pedro Carvalho0%
Fabrício Garcia0%
Tiago Brito0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ismael Sierra Arnal50%
Xeka33%
Ferro25%
Fernando Medrano25%
Ricard Sánchez25%
Joel Robles0%
Rafik Guitane0%
João Carvalho0%
Yanis Begraoui0%
Antef Tsoungui0%
André Lacximicant0%
Pedro Carvalho0%
Fabrício Garcia0%
Tiago Brito0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fernando Medrano25%
Pedro Carvalho25%
Ferro0%
Joel Robles0%
Rafik Guitane0%
João Carvalho0%
Yanis Begraoui0%
Xeka0%
Antef Tsoungui0%
Ricard Sánchez0%
André Lacximicant0%
Ismael Sierra Arnal0%
Fabrício Garcia0%
Tiago Brito0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
João Carvalho25%
Yanis Begraoui25%
André Lacximicant25%
Ferro0%
Joel Robles0%
Rafik Guitane0%
Xeka0%
Antef Tsoungui0%
Fernando Medrano0%
Ricard Sánchez0%
Ismael Sierra Arnal0%
Pedro Carvalho0%
Fabrício Garcia0%
Tiago Brito0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Benfica's squad is €315m more valuable than Estoril's (€357m vs €42m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Benfica's attack is €148m more valuable than Estoril's (€172m vs €24m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Benfica's midfield is €69m more valuable than Estoril's (€77m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Benfica's defence is €98m more valuable than Estoril's (€108m vs €10m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Santa Clara
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Casa Pia