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Bilje vs Dekani Result & Analysis

Date: 17/08/2024
Time: 15:30
Final 2-0
Bilje
Bilje
Vs
34%
30%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dekani
Dekani
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Bilje and Dekani face a razor-thin contest, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are split: a 34% chance for Bilje, 30% for a draw, and 36% for Dekani. The average goal tally sits at 2.4, so a 2-goal game is the most likely total, with a 27% probability. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 1-1, with a 14.3% chance. Bilje’s home form shows they score 1.78 and concede 1.33 against similarly ranked opponents, while Dekani, on the road, nets 1.09 and concedes 1.18. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 77% and Over 1.5 at 71.4%. The recent form narrative is clear: Bilje, after two straight defeats, are still fighting, whereas Dekani, fresh from a draw, look ready to push. All probabilities are presented as percentages, and every selection from the model’s list is noted with its exact figure.

Results analysis

Bilje’s win over Dekani was a surprise, as the pre-match favourite was the away side with a 36% chance of triumph. The model’s call was wrong, and the final score of 2-0 gave the home team a victory. Bilje’s recent form, after two straight defeats, was still solid, while Dekani had come off a draw. The model’s selection for Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 77% probability, and its pick for Over 1.5 goals also hit, at 71.4%. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 14.3% did not materialise, and the 0-0 draw at 10% was also missed.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bilje win✓ Hit
34.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dekani win✗ Miss
35.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BiljeBilje

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W15L02L21W02L22D00D01L30W10WA·TOL23/03H·BRI30/03A·TRI07/04A·RUD12/04H·NAF20/04A·DEK28/04H·DRA04/05A·KRK10/05H·BIS19/05A·TOL10/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.631.291.501.501.75
vs Stronger (10)0.902.000.401.801.402.20
vs Similar (20)1.651.451.781.331.551.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DekaniDekani

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L01L01L00D12L22D01L20W21W31WA·PRI24/03H·TAB29/03A·BEL07/04H·TOL14/04A·BRI21/04H·BIL28/04A·RUD04/05H·NAF11/05A·TRI18/05H·TAB10/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.231.401.271.071.20
vs Stronger (8)1.250.881.500.501.001.25
vs Similar (22)1.231.361.361.551.091.18
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.4%
Under 1.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.2%
Under 2.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.0%
Under 3.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.0%
0-1
9.5%
1-0
9.2%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.7%
2-0 ✓
6.3%
Bilje goals ↓
Dekani goals →
01234
010.0%9.5%6.7%2.8%0.9%
19.2%14%8.0%3.3%1.0%
26.3%7.8%4.8%2.0%0.6%
32.5%3.1%1.9%0.8%0.2%
40.8%0.9%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bilje goals (down), columns = Dekani goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Aluminij
2.13
Triglav
2.10
Gorica
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.83
Tabor Sežana
1.80
Bistrica
1.70
Dravinja
1.50
Krka
1.27
Beltinci
1.10
Bilje
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.10
Dekani
1.07
Rudar
1.07
Ilirija
0.87
Tolmin
0.73
NŠ Drava
0.67
Bilje is 0.03 points better than Dekani in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.07).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Gorica
2.00
Bistrica
2.00
Aluminij
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.93
Tabor Sežana
1.90
Beltinci
1.33
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.17
Slovan Ljubljana
1.13
Dekani
1.07
Ilirija
0.93
Krka
0.93
Rudar
0.90
Tolmin
0.87
NŠ Drava
0.73
Bilje is 0.10 goals better than Dekani in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.07).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Aluminij
0.93
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.03
Krka
1.07
Triglav
1.10
Gorica
1.13
Tabor Sežana
1.17
Dravinja
1.20
Bistrica
1.27
Slovan Ljubljana
1.30
Rudar
1.47
Bilje
1.50
Beltinci
1.60
Ilirija
1.63
Dekani
1.87
Tolmin
2.07
NŠ Drava
2.17
Bilje is 0.37 goals better than Dekani in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.87).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BiljeBilje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L01L20W00D00D00D00D20W00DA·TOL23/03H·BRI30/03A·TRI07/04A·RUD12/04H·NAF20/04A·DEK28/04H·DRA04/05A·KRK10/05H·BIS19/05A·TOL10/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.770.640.790.690.75
vs Stronger (10)0.301.000.000.800.601.20
vs Similar (20)0.850.651.000.780.730.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DekaniDekani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L00D00D01L00D00D00D01L21WA·PRI24/03H·TAB29/03A·BEL07/04H·TOL14/04A·BRI21/04H·BIL28/04A·RUD04/05H·NAF11/05A·TRI18/05H·TAB10/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.700.470.730.470.67
vs Stronger (8)0.500.380.750.250.250.50
vs Similar (22)0.450.820.360.910.550.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bilje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BiljeBilje

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W12L01L01L02L22D00D01L10W10WA·TOL23/03H·BRI30/03A·TRI07/04A·RUD12/04H·NAF20/04A·DEK28/04H·DRA04/05A·KRK10/05H·BIS19/05A·TOL10/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.870.640.710.811.00
vs Stronger (10)0.601.000.401.000.801.00
vs Similar (20)0.800.800.780.560.821.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DekaniDekani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D01L00D11D22D01L20W20W10WA·PRI24/03H·TAB29/03A·BEL07/04H·TOL14/04A·BRI21/04H·BIL28/04A·RUD04/05H·NAF11/05A·TRI18/05H·TAB10/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.530.930.530.600.53
vs Stronger (8)0.750.500.750.250.750.75
vs Similar (22)0.770.551.000.640.550.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bilje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
Bilje and Dekani have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
Bilje and Dekani have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
Bilje and Dekani have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Bilje and Dekani have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
BIL wins
2
Draws
1
DEK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bilje vs Dekani · H/A from BIL
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/24ADekani Vs BIL2-2
07/10/23HBIL Vs Dekani2-2
11/03/23ADekani Vs BIL0-1
27/08/22HBIL Vs Dekani0-4

BiljeBilje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/24ATolmin Vs BIL0-1
19/05/24HBIL Vs Bistrica3-0
10/05/24AKrka Vs BIL1-0
04/05/24HBIL Vs Dravinja0-0
28/04/24ADekani Vs BIL2-2
20/04/24HBIL Vs Nafta0-2
12/04/24ARudar Vs BIL1-2
07/04/24ATriglav Vs BIL2-0
30/03/24HBIL Vs Brinje-Grosuplje1-5
23/03/24ATolmin Vs BIL0-2

DekaniDekani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/24HDEK Vs Tabor Sežana3-1
18/05/24ATriglav Vs DEK1-2
11/05/24HDEK Vs Nafta2-0
04/05/24ARudar Vs DEK1-0
28/04/24HDEK Vs Bilje2-2
21/04/24ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs DEK2-1
14/04/24HDEK Vs Tolmin0-0
07/04/24ABeltinci Vs DEK1-0
29/03/24HDEK Vs Tabor Sežana0-1
24/03/24APrimorje Vs DEK4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bilje
Bilje
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWW1.16
HomeDLLDW0.96
AwayLWDLW1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%21%38%
AVG goals2.802.792.81
Over 1.5 %74%79%69%
Over 2.5 %58%54%62%
Over 3.5 %40%33%46%
Scored1.261.211.31
Conceded1.541.581.50
BTTS58%62%54%
Clean Sheet26%17%35%
Corners---
Cards---
Dekani
Dekani
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWW1.30
HomeLDDWW1.32
AwayLLLLW1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals2.162.401.92
Over 1.5 %60%68%52%
Over 2.5 %38%40%36%
Over 3.5 %24%32%16%
Scored1.101.240.96
Conceded1.061.160.96
BTTS50%52%48%
Clean Sheet30%28%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AluminijAluminij3064
67%
2.1
5928+31
2.9
83%
60%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.00.9
-
2TriglavTriglav3063
67%
2.1
7233+39
3.5
80%
60%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.41.1
-
3GoricaGorica3059
57%
2.0
6034+26
3.1
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.1
-
4Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3055
53%
1.8
5831+27
3.0
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.0
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3054
47%
1.8
5735+22
3.1
80%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.2
-
6BistricaBistrica3051
43%
1.7
6038+22
3.3
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.3
-
7DravinjaDravinja3045
43%
1.5
3736+1
2.4
63%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.2
-
8KrkaKrka3038
33%
1.3
2832-4
2.0
63%
37%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.1
-
9Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3033
27%
1.1
3439-5
2.4
80%
40%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.3
-
10BeltinciBeltinci3033
30%
1.1
4048-8
2.9
87%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.6
-
11BiljeBilje3033
27%
1.1
3545-10
2.7
67%
43%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.5
-
12RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
2744-17
2.4
70%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0100.91.5
-
13DekaniDekani3032
30%
1.1
3256-24
2.9
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.9
-
14IlirijaIlirija3026
17%
0.9
2849-21
2.6
67%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.91.6
-
15TolminTolmin3022
20%
0.7
2662-36
2.9
77%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
16NŠ DravaNŠ Drava3020
17%
0.7
2265-43
2.9
77%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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