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Bilje vs Rudar Result & Analysis

Date: 19/04/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 0-1
Bilje
Bilje
Vs
56%
26%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rudar
Rudar
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Bilje are tipped to win this Slovenia 2. SNL fixture, with a 56% chance of triumph, a 26% chance of a draw and an 18% chance of an away victory. The model projects an average of 2.7 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.2% probability. Bilje’s home form shows they average 1.38 goals scored and only 0.38 conceded against similarly matched opponents, while Rudar’s away record is 0.38 scored and 1.25 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 with a 75.7% chance and Under 3.5 with a 72.0% chance. The match’s recent narratives note Bilje’s last five games included two straight defeats and a 1-4 loss to Rudar, whereas Rudar entered with a win and a 4-1 triumph over Bilje. The model’s selection for the match outcome remains a home win.

Results analysis

The upset came early as Rudar snatched a 1-0 win, overturning Bilje’s pre-match favourite. The model had tipped a home win with a 56% probability, but the call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 delivered an away victory, a result that surprised the model’s expectations. The suggested picks also missed the mark: Over 1.5 goals, projected at 75.7%, fell short, while Under 3.5 goals, with a 72.0% chance, proved correct. Bilje’s recent form, after two straight defeats, contrasted sharply with Rudar’s coming off a win, setting the stage for the unexpected outcome.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bilje win✗ Miss
56.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rudar win✓ Hit
18.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BiljeBilje

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D20W42W03L03L10W02L42W01LA·SLO09/11H·KRK16/11H·TOL23/11A·DEK01/03H·DRA08/03A·ALU15/03H·ILI23/03A·GOR29/03H·BEL06/04A·BRI12/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.271.431.000.811.50
vs Stronger (11)0.911.911.501.830.202.00
vs Similar (19)1.210.891.380.381.091.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RudarRudar

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L00D22D00D20W02L05L22D01L12LA·ALU09/11H·ILI17/11H·GOR26/11A·BEL01/03H·BRI08/03H·SLO16/03A·TRI22/03H·BIS28/03A·NŠ 06/04H·TAB11/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.601.001.670.601.53
vs Stronger (10)1.201.702.001.330.861.86
vs Similar (20)0.601.550.751.750.381.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.9%
Under 2.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 3.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.6%
No
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-0
11.1%
2-0
10.7%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
8.0%
3-0
6.3%
3-1
5.7%
0-1 ✓
5.2%
Bilje goals ↓
Rudar goals →
01234
08.0%5.2%2.9%0.9%0.2%
111%12%5.0%1.5%0.3%
211%9.8%4.4%1.3%0.3%
36.3%5.7%2.6%0.8%0.2%
42.8%2.5%1.1%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bilje goals (down), columns = Rudar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Aluminij
2.13
Triglav
2.10
Gorica
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.83
Tabor Sežana
1.80
Bistrica
1.70
Dravinja
1.50
Krka
1.27
Beltinci
1.10
Bilje
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.10
Dekani
1.07
Rudar
1.07
Ilirija
0.87
Tolmin
0.73
NŠ Drava
0.67
Bilje is 0.03 points better than Rudar in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.07).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Gorica
2.00
Bistrica
2.00
Aluminij
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.93
Tabor Sežana
1.90
Beltinci
1.33
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.17
Slovan Ljubljana
1.13
Dekani
1.07
Ilirija
0.93
Krka
0.93
Rudar
0.90
Tolmin
0.87
NŠ Drava
0.73
Bilje is 0.27 goals better than Rudar in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.90).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Aluminij
0.93
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.03
Krka
1.07
Triglav
1.10
Gorica
1.13
Tabor Sežana
1.17
Dravinja
1.20
Bistrica
1.27
Slovan Ljubljana
1.30
Rudar
1.47
Bilje
1.50
Beltinci
1.60
Ilirija
1.63
Dekani
1.87
Tolmin
2.07
NŠ Drava
2.17
Bilje is 0.03 goals worse than Rudar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BiljeBilje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D10W31W02L01L00D01L11D01LA·SLO09/11H·KRK16/11H·TOL23/11A·DEK01/03H·DRA08/03A·ALU15/03H·ILI23/03A·GOR29/03H·BEL06/04A·BRI12/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.600.640.570.440.62
vs Stronger (11)0.451.090.671.000.201.20
vs Similar (19)0.580.320.620.250.550.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RudarRudar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D20W00D00D01L02L11D00D11DA·ALU09/11H·ILI17/11H·GOR26/11A·BEL01/03H·BRI08/03H·SLO16/03A·TRI22/03H·BIS28/03A·NŠ 06/04H·TAB11/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.600.530.730.270.47
vs Stronger (10)0.700.401.330.330.430.43
vs Similar (20)0.250.700.330.830.120.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bilje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BiljeBilje

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D10W11D01L02L10W01L31W00DA·SLO09/11H·KRK16/11H·TOL23/11A·DEK01/03H·DRA08/03A·ALU15/03H·ILI23/03A·GOR29/03H·BEL06/04A·BRI12/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.670.790.430.380.88
vs Stronger (11)0.450.820.830.830.000.80
vs Similar (19)0.630.580.750.120.550.91
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RudarRudar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D02L00D20W01L03L11D01L01LA·ALU09/11H·ILI17/11H·GOR26/11A·BEL01/03H·BRI08/03H·SLO16/03A·TRI22/03H·BIS28/03A·NŠ 06/04H·TAB11/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.000.470.930.331.07
vs Stronger (10)0.501.300.671.000.431.43
vs Similar (20)0.350.850.420.920.250.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bilje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
Bilje and Rudar have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
Bilje and Rudar have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
Bilje and Rudar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Bilje and Rudar have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
BIL wins
2
Draws
1
RUD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bilje vs Rudar · H/A from BIL
DateH/AGameScore
04/10/24ARudar Vs BIL1-0
12/04/24ARudar Vs BIL1-2
25/09/23HBIL Vs Rudar2-2
25/03/23ARudar Vs BIL0-0
09/09/22HBIL Vs Rudar4-3

BiljeBilje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/25ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs BIL1-0
06/04/25HBIL Vs Beltinci4-2
29/03/25AGorica Vs BIL2-0
23/03/25HBIL Vs Ilirija1-0
15/03/25AAluminij Vs BIL3-0
08/03/25HBIL Vs Dravinja0-3
01/03/25ADekani Vs BIL2-4
23/11/24HBIL Vs Tolmin2-0
16/11/24HBIL Vs Krka0-0
09/11/24ASlovan Ljubljana Vs BIL1-0

RudarRudar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/25HRUD Vs Tabor Sežana1-2
06/04/25ANŠ Drava Vs RUD1-0
28/03/25HRUD Vs Bistrica2-2
22/03/25ATriglav Vs RUD5-0
16/03/25HRUD Vs Slovan Ljubljana0-2
08/03/25HRUD Vs Brinje-Grosuplje2-0
01/03/25ABeltinci Vs RUD0-0
26/11/24HRUD Vs Gorica2-2
17/11/24HRUD Vs Ilirija0-0
09/11/24AAluminij Vs RUD2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bilje
Bilje
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.18
HomeDWLWW1.46
AwayLWLLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%27%
AVG goals2.802.752.85
Over 1.5 %76%79%73%
Over 2.5 %52%50%54%
Over 3.5 %34%33%35%
Scored1.301.421.19
Conceded1.501.331.65
BTTS46%42%50%
Clean Sheet26%38%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Rudar
Rudar
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL1.08
HomeDWLDL1.44
AwayLLDLL0.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%40%12%
AVG goals2.682.562.80
Over 1.5 %74%68%80%
Over 2.5 %46%52%40%
Over 3.5 %30%32%28%
Scored1.001.120.88
Conceded1.681.441.92
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet28%36%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AluminijAluminij3064
67%
2.1
5928+31
2.9
83%
60%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.00.9
-
2TriglavTriglav3063
67%
2.1
7233+39
3.5
80%
60%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.41.1
-
3GoricaGorica3059
57%
2.0
6034+26
3.1
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.1
-
4Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3055
53%
1.8
5831+27
3.0
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.0
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3054
47%
1.8
5735+22
3.1
80%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.2
-
6BistricaBistrica3051
43%
1.7
6038+22
3.3
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.3
-
7DravinjaDravinja3045
43%
1.5
3736+1
2.4
63%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.2
-
8KrkaKrka3038
33%
1.3
2832-4
2.0
63%
37%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.1
-
9Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3033
27%
1.1
3439-5
2.4
80%
40%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.3
-
10BeltinciBeltinci3033
30%
1.1
4048-8
2.9
87%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.6
-
11BiljeBilje3033
27%
1.1
3545-10
2.7
67%
43%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.5
-
12RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
2744-17
2.4
70%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0100.91.5
-
13DekaniDekani3032
30%
1.1
3256-24
2.9
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.9
-
14IlirijaIlirija3026
17%
0.9
2849-21
2.6
67%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.91.6
-
15TolminTolmin3022
20%
0.7
2662-36
2.9
77%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
16NŠ DravaNŠ Drava3020
17%
0.7
2265-43
2.9
77%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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