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Bilje vs Rudar Result & Analysis

Date: 23/08/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
Bilje
Bilje
Vs
38%
31%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rudar
Rudar
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Bilje and Rudar face a finely balanced clash, with the model favouring a home win. The odds sit at 38% for Bilje, 31% for a draw and 31% for Rudar, making the home side the favourite. The expected total of goals is 2.3, with the most probable total being two goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.5% chance. Bilje, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.78 goals scored and 0.78 conceded. Rudar, on the road to a similarly matched side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.17 conceded. The model’s selection list includes Under 3.5 with a 79.5% probability, marked as a hit. The match remains uncertain, but the data point to a modest home advantage and a balanced total-goals outlook.

Results analysis

Bilje’s recent form, now a 2-straight-defeat slump, was a warning sign that the home side had been struggling, yet the Pythia model still tipped a home win with a 38% chance. The prediction proved correct as Bilje edged Rudar 2-1, matching the model’s favoured outcome. The model’s single suggested pick, Under 3.5 goals, hit with a 79.5% probability, and the total goals of two fell within the most likely scoreline. The match saw Bilje’s 0.78 average goals scored and conceded at home, while Rudar’s 1.0 goals scored and 1.17 conceded on the road. All selections settled as predicted, confirming the model’s accuracy.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bilje win✓ Hit
37.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rudar win✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BiljeBilje

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-701L01L47L00D22D13L00D22D01L12LA·BRI12/04H·RUD19/04A·TRI27/04H·BIS03/05A·NŠ 07/05H·TAB11/05H·SLO17/05A·KRK23/05H·TRI09/08A·SLO15/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.601.071.131.132.07
vs Stronger (11)1.272.271.501.671.003.00
vs Similar (19)1.001.210.780.781.201.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RudarRudar

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L10W00D40W00D10W03L21W13L01LH·TAB11/04A·BIL19/04H·KRK25/04A·TOL03/05H·DEK08/05A·DRA11/05H·ALU18/05A·ILI24/05A·BIS08/08H·NAF15/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.330.871.130.801.53
vs Stronger (8)0.752.121.201.600.003.00
vs Similar (22)0.861.050.700.901.001.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.7%
Under 1.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.0%
Under 2.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.5%
Under 3.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.1%
1-0
10.7%
0-1
9.4%
2-1 ✓
8.1%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.9%
Bilje goals ↓
Rudar goals →
01234
011%9.4%5.9%2.1%0.6%
111%14%7.2%2.6%0.7%
27.4%8.1%4.4%1.6%0.4%
33.0%3.3%1.8%0.7%0.2%
40.9%1.0%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bilje goals (down), columns = Rudar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.50
Nafta
2.50
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Gorica
0.73
Jesenice
0.60
Bilje is 0.10 points worse than Rudar in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.33
Nafta
2.17
Beltinci
1.83
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Gorica
1.03
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Bilje is 0.63 goals worse than Rudar in terms of goals scored per game (0.90 vs 1.53).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.77
Beltinci
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
0.87
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Dravinja
1.47
Gorica
1.50
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Ilirija
1.73
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Bilje is 0.27 goals worse than Rudar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.30).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BiljeBilje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L01L25L00D10W03L00D01L00D11DA·BRI12/04H·RUD19/04A·TRI27/04H·BIS03/05A·NŠ 07/05H·TAB11/05H·SLO17/05A·KRK23/05H·TRI09/08A·SLO15/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.930.470.800.601.07
vs Stronger (11)0.641.450.671.000.602.00
vs Similar (19)0.470.630.330.670.600.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RudarRudar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W00D10W00D10W02L10W02L01LH·TAB11/04A·BIL19/04H·KRK25/04A·TOL03/05H·DEK08/05A·DRA11/05H·ALU18/05A·ILI24/05A·BIS08/08H·NAF15/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.530.530.530.330.53
vs Stronger (8)0.500.750.800.800.000.67
vs Similar (22)0.410.450.400.400.420.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bilje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BiljeBilje

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D22D00D12L10W00D21W01L01LA·BRI12/04H·RUD19/04A·TRI27/04H·BIS03/05A·NŠ 07/05H·TAB11/05H·SLO17/05A·KRK23/05H·TRI09/08A·SLO15/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.670.600.330.531.00
vs Stronger (11)0.640.820.830.670.401.00
vs Similar (19)0.530.580.440.110.601.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RudarRudar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D30W00D00D01L11D11D00DH·TAB11/04A·BIL19/04H·KRK25/04A·TOL03/05H·DEK08/05A·DRA11/05H·ALU18/05A·ILI24/05A·BIS08/08H·NAF15/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.800.330.600.471.00
vs Stronger (8)0.251.380.400.800.002.33
vs Similar (22)0.450.590.300.500.580.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bilje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Bilje and Rudar have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
Bilje and Rudar have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Bilje and Rudar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Bilje and Rudar have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
BIL wins
2
Draws
2
RUD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bilje vs Rudar · H/A from BIL
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/25HBIL Vs Rudar0-1
04/10/24ARudar Vs BIL1-0
12/04/24ARudar Vs BIL1-2
25/09/23HBIL Vs Rudar2-2
25/03/23ARudar Vs BIL0-0
09/09/22HBIL Vs Rudar4-3

BiljeBilje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/08/25ASlovan Ljubljana Vs BIL2-1
09/08/25HBIL Vs Triglav0-1
23/05/25AKrka Vs BIL2-2
17/05/25HBIL Vs Slovan Ljubljana0-0
11/05/25HBIL Vs Tabor Sežana1-3
07/05/25ANŠ Drava Vs BIL2-2
03/05/25HBIL Vs Bistrica0-0
27/04/25ATriglav Vs BIL7-4
19/04/25HBIL Vs Rudar0-1
12/04/25ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs BIL1-0

RudarRudar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/08/25HRUD Vs Nafta0-1
08/08/25ABistrica Vs RUD3-1
24/05/25AIlirija Vs RUD1-2
18/05/25HRUD Vs Aluminij0-3
11/05/25ADravinja Vs RUD0-1
08/05/25HRUD Vs Dekani0-0
03/05/25ATolmin Vs RUD0-4
25/04/25HRUD Vs Krka0-0
19/04/25ABilje Vs RUD0-1
11/04/25HRUD Vs Tabor Sežana1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bilje
Bilje
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 0 Wins / 4 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLL1.02
HomeLDLDL1.24
AwayLLDDL0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%32%20%
AVG goals2.762.363.16
Over 1.5 %70%64%76%
Over 2.5 %48%40%56%
Over 3.5 %32%28%36%
Scored1.201.121.28
Conceded1.561.241.88
BTTS40%28%52%
Clean Sheet28%44%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Rudar
Rudar
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLL1.20
HomeLDDLL1.40
AwayWWWWL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%36%24%
AVG goals2.482.282.68
Over 1.5 %66%60%72%
Over 2.5 %46%52%40%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.001.001.00
Conceded1.481.281.68
BTTS40%40%40%
Clean Sheet34%40%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3075
77%
2.5
7026+44
3.2
83%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.9
-
2NaftaNafta3075
77%
2.5
6523+42
2.9
90%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.20.8
-
3TriglavTriglav3064
67%
2.1
7228+44
3.3
83%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.40.9
-
4BeltinciBeltinci3060
60%
2.0
5525+30
2.7
77%
53%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.80.8
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3050
50%
1.7
3733+4
2.3
67%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.1
-
6BistricaBistrica3045
43%
1.5
5036+14
2.9
83%
63%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.2
-
7RudarRudar3037
30%
1.2
4639+7
2.8
80%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.51.3
-
8DravinjaDravinja3037
33%
1.2
3244-12
2.5
80%
43%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.5
-
9BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
2747-20
2.5
60%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.91.6
-
10DekaniDekani3033
27%
1.1
4046-6
2.9
83%
53%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.5
-
11Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3032
30%
1.1
3252-20
2.8
77%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.7
-
12KrkaKrka3029
20%
1.0
3251-19
2.8
70%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.7
-
13IlirijaIlirija3027
20%
0.9
3852-14
3.0
87%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.31.7
-
14KrškoKrško3026
23%
0.9
2462-38
2.9
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.1
-
15GoricaGorica3022
13%
0.7
3145-14
2.5
73%
53%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
16JeseniceJesenice3018
13%
0.6
2668-42
3.1
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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