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Bistrica vs Slovan Ljubljana Result & Analysis

Date: 11/04/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
Bistrica
Bistrica
Vs
48%
25%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Slovan Ljubljana
Slovan Ljubljana
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bistrica win✓ Hit
48.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana win✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BistricaBistrica

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-442W11D40W11D00D10W31W22D22D23LH·TOL02/11A·DEK09/11H·DRA16/11H·ALU27/11A·ILI02/03H·GOR09/03A·BEL15/03H·BRI21/03A·RUD28/03H·TRI06/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.532.071.531.071.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.571.532.071.531.071.53
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-552W10W02L21W12L11D20W01L23L21WA·GOR02/11H·BIL09/11A·BEL17/11H·KRK23/11A·BRI28/02H·TOL09/03A·RUD16/03H·DEK22/03A·TRI30/03H·DRA05/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.051.360.911.271.181.45
vs Stronger (7)1.432.001.001.501.602.20
vs Similar (15)0.871.070.891.220.830.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %14% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.4%
Under 1.5
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.8%
Under 2.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.6%
Under 3.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.1%
No
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1 ✓
9.4%
1-2
6.9%
2-0
6.8%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.3%
3-1
5.8%
0-0
4.9%
Bistrica goals ↓
Slovan Ljubljana goals →
01234
04.9%4.4%3.7%1.7%0.6%
16.3%11%6.9%3.2%1.1%
26.8%9.4%6.4%2.9%1.0%
34.2%5.8%4.0%1.8%0.6%
42.0%2.7%1.9%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bistrica goals (down), columns = Slovan Ljubljana goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Aluminij
2.13
Triglav
2.10
Gorica
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.83
Tabor Sežana
1.80
Bistrica
1.70
Dravinja
1.50
Krka
1.27
Beltinci
1.10
Bilje
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.10
Dekani
1.07
Rudar
1.07
Ilirija
0.87
Tolmin
0.73
NŠ Drava
0.67
Bistrica is 0.60 points better than Slovan Ljubljana in terms of average points per game (1.70 vs 1.10).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Gorica
2.00
Bistrica
2.00
Aluminij
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.93
Tabor Sežana
1.90
Beltinci
1.33
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.17
Slovan Ljubljana
1.13
Dekani
1.07
Ilirija
0.93
Krka
0.93
Rudar
0.90
Tolmin
0.87
NŠ Drava
0.73
Bistrica is 0.87 goals better than Slovan Ljubljana in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.13).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Aluminij
0.93
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.03
Krka
1.07
Triglav
1.10
Gorica
1.13
Tabor Sežana
1.17
Dravinja
1.20
Bistrica
1.27
Slovan Ljubljana
1.30
Rudar
1.47
Bilje
1.50
Beltinci
1.60
Ilirija
1.63
Dekani
1.87
Tolmin
2.07
NŠ Drava
2.17
Bistrica is 0.03 goals better than Slovan Ljubljana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 1.30).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BistricaBistrica

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W10W20W11D00D00D10W11D11D11DH·TOL02/11A·DEK09/11H·DRA16/11H·ALU27/11A·ILI02/03H·GOR09/03A·BEL15/03H·BRI21/03A·RUD28/03H·TRI06/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.800.930.800.470.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.700.800.930.800.470.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D01L10W11D01L10W01L02L10WA·GOR02/11H·BIL09/11A·BEL17/11H·KRK23/11A·BRI28/02H·TOL09/03A·RUD16/03H·DEK22/03A·TRI30/03H·DRA05/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.410.680.360.450.450.91
vs Stronger (7)0.571.141.000.500.401.40
vs Similar (15)0.330.470.220.440.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %45% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BistricaBistrica

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L20W00D00D10W21W11D11D12LH·TOL02/11A·DEK09/11H·DRA16/11H·ALU27/11A·ILI02/03H·GOR09/03A·BEL15/03H·BRI21/03A·RUD28/03H·TRI06/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.731.130.730.600.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.870.731.130.730.600.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W10W01L11D01L10W10W00D21W11DA·GOR02/11H·BIL09/11A·BEL17/11H·KRK23/11A·BRI28/02H·TOL09/03A·RUD16/03H·DEK22/03A·TRI30/03H·DRA05/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.640.680.550.820.730.55
vs Stronger (7)0.860.860.001.001.200.80
vs Similar (15)0.530.600.670.780.330.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %36% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
Bistrica and Slovan Ljubljana have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
Bistrica and Slovan Ljubljana have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
Bistrica and Slovan Ljubljana have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Bistrica and Slovan Ljubljana have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
BIS wins
0
Draws
0
SL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bistrica vs Slovan Ljubljana · H/A from BIS
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/24ASlovan Ljubljana Vs BIS0-2

BistricaBistrica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/04/25HBIS Vs Triglav2-3
28/03/25ARudar Vs BIS2-2
21/03/25HBIS Vs Brinje-Grosuplje2-2
15/03/25ABeltinci Vs BIS1-3
09/03/25HBIS Vs Gorica1-0
02/03/25AIlirija Vs BIS0-0
27/11/24HBIS Vs Aluminij1-1
16/11/24HBIS Vs Dravinja4-0
09/11/24ADekani Vs BIS1-1
02/11/24HBIS Vs Tolmin4-2

Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/04/25HSL Vs Dravinja2-1
30/03/25ATriglav Vs SL3-2
22/03/25HSL Vs Dekani0-1
16/03/25ARudar Vs SL0-2
09/03/25HSL Vs Tolmin1-1
28/02/25ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs SL2-1
23/11/24HSL Vs Krka2-1
17/11/24ABeltinci Vs SL2-0
09/11/24HSL Vs Bilje1-0
02/11/24AGorica Vs SL2-5

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bistrica
Bistrica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDL1.48
HomeWDWDL1.92
AwayWDDWD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%56%24%
AVG goals3.103.402.80
Over 1.5 %80%72%88%
Over 2.5 %58%60%56%
Over 3.5 %44%52%36%
Scored1.602.001.20
Conceded1.501.401.60
BTTS64%64%64%
Clean Sheet26%32%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Slovan Ljubljana
Slovan Ljubljana
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLW0.95
HomeWWDLW1.09
AwayWLLWL0.82
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %23%27%18%
AVG goals2.412.182.64
Over 1.5 %82%82%82%
Over 2.5 %36%36%36%
Over 3.5 %9%0%18%
Scored1.050.911.18
Conceded1.361.271.45
BTTS59%64%55%
Clean Sheet14%9%18%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AluminijAluminij3064
67%
2.1
5928+31
2.9
83%
60%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.00.9
-
2TriglavTriglav3063
67%
2.1
7233+39
3.5
80%
60%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.41.1
-
3GoricaGorica3059
57%
2.0
6034+26
3.1
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.1
-
4Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3055
53%
1.8
5831+27
3.0
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.0
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3054
47%
1.8
5735+22
3.1
80%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.2
-
6BistricaBistrica3051
43%
1.7
6038+22
3.3
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.3
-
7DravinjaDravinja3045
43%
1.5
3736+1
2.4
63%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.2
-
8KrkaKrka3038
33%
1.3
2832-4
2.0
63%
37%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.1
-
9Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3033
27%
1.1
3439-5
2.4
80%
40%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.3
-
10BeltinciBeltinci3033
30%
1.1
4048-8
2.9
87%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.6
-
11BiljeBilje3033
27%
1.1
3545-10
2.7
67%
43%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.5
-
12RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
2744-17
2.4
70%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0100.91.5
-
13DekaniDekani3032
30%
1.1
3256-24
2.9
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.9
-
14IlirijaIlirija3026
17%
0.9
2849-21
2.6
67%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.91.6
-
15TolminTolmin3022
20%
0.7
2662-36
2.9
77%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
16NŠ DravaNŠ Drava3020
17%
0.7
2265-43
2.9
77%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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