The model predicts an away win with a 44% chance, while a home win sits at 32% and a draw at 24%. The expected total is 3.5 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that the model sees as the most likely. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.2% probability. BK Hacken, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. AIK Stockholm, on the road, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.58 conceded against similar opposition. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 87%, Over 19.5 fouls at 84.2%, Under 5.5 cards at 78.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 76.0%, Over 8.5 corners at 73.6% and Over 21.5 fouls at 71.7%. The match is expected to be high-scoring, with the model’s favourite outcome being an away victory.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away win, did not materialise as the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. BK Hacken, on a two-game winning run, and AIK Stockholm, on a three-game winning streak, both struggled to find the net. The model had assigned a 44% chance to an away victory and a 32% chance to a home win, but the result was a stalemate. Among the model’s selections, Over 19.5 fouls (84.2%) and Over 21.5 fouls (71.7%) were hit, while Over 1.5 goals (87.0%) and Over 8.5 corners (73.6%) missed. The under 5.5 cards (78.7%) and over 2.5 cards (76.0%) also hit.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
BK Hacken win✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AIK Stockholm win✗ Miss
43.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BK Hacken
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.60
1.93
1.60
1.27
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.76
1.72
2.00
1.62
1.50
1.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (AIK Stockholm) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AIK Stockholm
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.40
1.43
1.50
1.88
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.48
1.48
1.45
1.36
1.50
1.58
vs Weaker (7)
2.29
1.14
1.33
2.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (BK Hacken) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
87.0%
Under 1.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.3%
Under 2.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.7%
Under 3.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.4%
No
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
7.4%
2-2
7.0%
0-2
5.5%
1-3
5.4%
0-1
4.9%
2-3
4.3%
BK Hacken goals ↓
AIK Stockholm goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
4.9%
5.5%
3.4%
1.6%
1
4.0%
10%
8.7%
5.4%
2.5%
2
4.0%
7.4%
7.0%
4.3%
2.0%
3
2.1%
4.0%
3.7%
2.3%
1.1%
4
0.8%
1.6%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BK Hacken goals (down), columns = AIK Stockholm goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sirius
2.33
Hammarby FF
2.00
BK Hacken
1.72
Djurgardens IF
1.71
AIK Stockholm
1.65
IF Elfsborg
1.56
Malmo FF
1.44
Vasteras SK FK
1.44
IF Brommapojkarna
1.33
Gais
1.28
Mjallby AIF
1.25
IFK Goteborg
1.11
Kalmar FF
1.06
Degerfors IF
0.89
Orgryte IS
0.78
Halmstad
0.44
BK Hacken is 0.08 points better than AIK Stockholm in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sirius
2.61
Hammarby FF
2.33
Djurgardens IF
2.18
BK Hacken
1.78
Malmo FF
1.78
Mjallby AIF
1.50
IF Brommapojkarna
1.50
AIK Stockholm
1.47
IF Elfsborg
1.39
Vasteras SK FK
1.39
IFK Goteborg
1.28
Orgryte IS
1.22
Kalmar FF
1.17
Gais
1.17
Degerfors IF
0.94
Halmstad
0.67
BK Hacken is 0.31 goals better than AIK Stockholm in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hammarby FF
0.83
Gais
1.00
IF Elfsborg
1.06
Djurgardens IF
1.12
Mjallby AIF
1.44
BK Hacken
1.44
Sirius
1.44
AIK Stockholm
1.47
IF Brommapojkarna
1.50
Kalmar FF
1.56
Degerfors IF
1.61
Malmo FF
1.67
Vasteras SK FK
1.78
Halmstad
1.94
IFK Goteborg
2.17
Orgryte IS
2.28
BK Hacken is 0.03 goals better than AIK Stockholm in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hammarby FF
61%
Malmo FF
57%
Djurgardens IF
56%
Mjallby AIF
54%
AIK Stockholm
52%
BK Hacken
52%
IFK Goteborg
51%
Gais
50%
Sirius
48%
Vasteras SK FK
47%
IF Elfsborg
47%
IF Brommapojkarna
47%
Kalmar FF
47%
Degerfors IF
46%
Orgryte IS
43%
Halmstad
41%
BK Hacken is 0.3 percentage points worse than AIK Stockholm in terms of average possession (52% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
BK Hacken
For 5.9 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 13.9 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AIK Stockholm
For 6.5 · Against 5.7 · Total 12.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 14.1 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
BK Hacken
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
9.9
11.6
4.0
4.0
4.0
24.5
24.5
24.4
vs Stronger (4)
12.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
5.5
4.5
15.5
16.0
15.0
vs Similar (41)
10.9
10.0
11.9
4.1
4.0
4.1
25.1
25.0
25.3
vs Weaker (5)
9.5
-
9.5
2.6
0.0
3.2
23.5
-
23.5
% over line
64%
47%
80%
58%
50%
65%
69%
68%
70%
% under line
36%
53%
20%
42%
50%
35%
31%
32%
30%
This opponent (AIK Stockholm) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AIK Stockholm
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.4
11.3
3.6
3.2
3.9
23.9
23.5
24.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
11.1
11.0
11.2
3.8
3.1
4.5
24.1
23.3
24.8
vs Weaker (10)
9.8
7.8
11.8
2.7
3.8
2.0
23.0
24.2
21.8
% over line
63%
52%
73%
54%
50%
58%
70%
71%
68%
% under line
37%
48%
27%
46%
50%
42%
30%
29%
32%
This opponent (BK Hacken) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
IFK Goteborg
11.3
Sirius
11.0
Orgryte IS
10.9
AIK Stockholm
10.8
IF Brommapojkarna
10.6
Djurgardens IF
10.6
BK Hacken
10.6
Vasteras SK FK
10.5
Gais
10.3
Mjallby AIF
10.2
Malmo FF
10.2
Degerfors IF
10.2
Kalmar FF
10.0
Halmstad
10.0
IF Elfsborg
10.0
Hammarby FF
10.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Djurgardens IF
4.6
IFK Goteborg
4.5
BK Hacken
4.4
AIK Stockholm
4.2
Degerfors IF
3.8
Mjallby AIF
3.8
Gais
3.8
Hammarby FF
3.6
Malmo FF
3.6
IF Brommapojkarna
3.6
Halmstad
3.5
IF Elfsborg
3.5
Vasteras SK FK
3.5
Kalmar FF
3.4
Sirius
3.3
Orgryte IS
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
IFK Goteborg
26.5
Djurgardens IF
25.9
Mjallby AIF
25.5
Sirius
25.1
Hammarby FF
25.0
Malmo FF
24.9
Degerfors IF
24.7
Gais
24.6
Vasteras SK FK
24.5
BK Hacken
24.2
AIK Stockholm
24.1
Halmstad
24.0
IF Brommapojkarna
24.0
IF Elfsborg
23.9
Kalmar FF
23.4
Orgryte IS
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
62.1%
Under 9.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.4%
Under 3.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
71.7%
Under 21.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BK Hacken
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.73
0.87
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.72
0.77
0.92
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (AIK Stockholm) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AIK Stockholm
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.43
1.07
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.87
0.45
1.00
0.33
0.75
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.71
0.33
1.33
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (BK Hacken) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BK Hacken over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BK Hacken over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BK Hacken over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AIK Stockholm over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AIK Stockholm over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AIK Stockholm over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BK Hacken
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.97
1.20
0.73
0.67
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
1.00
1.23
0.69
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (AIK Stockholm) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AIK Stockholm
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.57
1.00
0.43
1.38
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.61
1.00
0.36
1.17
0.83
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.43
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (BK Hacken) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BK Hacken over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BK Hacken over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BK Hacken over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AIK Stockholm over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AIK Stockholm over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AIK Stockholm over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (24)
€30m
DI (22)
€27m
SIR (23)
€27m
MA (24)
€26m
AS (25)
€20m
IE (26)
€17m
IG (22)
€16m
BH (22)
€16m
GAI (29)
€13m
KF (20)
€10m
VSF (24)
€10m
OI (26)
€8m
IB (24)
€8m
HAL (19)
€8m
DI (23)
€6m
BK Hacken's squad is €5m less valuable than AIK Stockholm's (€16m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (10)
€18m
MF (6)
€9m
AS (7)
€8m
IG (8)
€8m
DI (6)
€8m
MA (9)
€7m
BH (4)
€6m
IE (9)
€5m
GAI (10)
€5m
KF (8)
€4m
HAL (7)
€4m
IB (10)
€3m
VSF (8)
€3m
OI (7)
€2m
DI (5)
€1m
BK Hacken's attack is €2m less valuable than AIK Stockholm's (€6m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DI (6)
€14m
MA (6)
€11m
MF (5)
€8m
AS (9)
€7m
SIR (5)
€5m
IE (5)
€4m
IG (4)
€3m
GAI (8)
€3m
BH (6)
€3m
VSF (6)
€3m
DI (7)
€3m
KF (4)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
HAL (3)
€1m
IB (3)
€1m
BK Hacken's midfield is €4m less valuable than AIK Stockholm's (€3m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (13)
€12m
MA (9)
€8m
IE (12)
€7m
BH (12)
€7m
DI (10)
€6m
GAI (11)
€5m
IG (10)
€5m
AS (9)
€5m
OI (12)
€4m
IB (11)
€4m
SIR (8)
€4m
VSF (10)
€4m
KF (8)
€3m
HAL (9)
€3m
DI (11)
€3m
BK Hacken's defence is €2m more valuable than AIK Stockholm's (€7m vs €5m).
Sweden: Allsvenskan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Allsvenskan stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sirius
Hammarby FF
Djurgardens IF
IF Elfsborg
Malmo FF
Vasteras SK FK
IF Brommapojkarna
Gais
Mjallby AIF
IFK Goteborg
Kalmar FF
Degerfors IF
Orgryte IS
Halmstad