This opponent (Farense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Farense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.60
1.00
1.71
1.12
1.50
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
2.40
0.80
2.80
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.26
1.00
1.25
1.18
1.27
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.6%
Under 1.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.6%
@ 2.30-1.6%
Under 2.5
60.4%
@ 1.61+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.5%
Under 3.5
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.4%
No
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.6%
0-0
11.7%
0-1
10.5%
1-0
10.3%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.6%
Boavista goals ↓
Farense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
10%
6.7%
2.6%
0.7%
1
10%
15%
7.6%
2.9%
0.8%
2
6.6%
7.5%
4.3%
1.6%
0.5%
3
2.5%
2.8%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Boavista goals (down), columns = Farense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
FC Porto
2.09
SC Braga
1.94
Santa Clara
1.68
Guimaraes
1.59
Famalicao
1.38
Estoril
1.35
Casa Pia
1.32
Moreirense
1.18
Rio Ave
1.12
Arouca
1.12
GIL Vicente
1.00
Nacional
1.00
AVS
0.86
Estrela
0.85
Farense
0.79
Boavista
0.71
Vizela
0.50
Boavista is 0.09 points worse than Farense in terms of average points per game (0.71 vs 0.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.59
Benfica
2.47
FC Porto
1.91
SC Braga
1.62
Estoril
1.41
Guimaraes
1.38
Famalicao
1.29
Moreirense
1.24
Casa Pia
1.15
Rio Ave
1.15
Santa Clara
1.06
Arouca
1.03
Vizela
1.00
GIL Vicente
1.00
Nacional
0.94
AVS
0.83
Farense
0.74
Estrela
0.71
Boavista
0.71
Boavista is 0.03 goals worse than Farense in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 0.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sporting CP
0.79
Benfica
0.82
FC Porto
0.88
SC Braga
0.88
Santa Clara
0.94
Guimaraes
1.09
Famalicao
1.15
Casa Pia
1.29
Farense
1.35
GIL Vicente
1.38
Arouca
1.44
Moreirense
1.47
Estrela
1.47
Nacional
1.47
Estoril
1.56
Rio Ave
1.62
AVS
1.72
Boavista
1.74
Vizela
2.50
Boavista is 0.38 goals worse than Farense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
71%
FC Porto
62%
Sporting CP
60%
Benfica
58%
SC Braga
57%
Guimaraes
57%
Arouca
53%
GIL Vicente
51%
Famalicao
50%
Estoril
49%
Rio Ave
48%
Moreirense
47%
Nacional
47%
Casa Pia
47%
Estrela
45%
Santa Clara
44%
AVS
43%
Farense
41%
Boavista
40%
Boavista is 1.0 percentage points worse than Farense in terms of average possession (40% vs 41%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Boavista
For 4.2 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 14.4 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Farense
For 3.4 · Against 6.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.2 · Against 12.1 · Total 28.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Boavista
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.7
9.4
5.3
5.7
5.0
28.1
28.2
27.9
vs Stronger (39)
9.2
9.2
9.2
5.6
6.1
5.0
28.2
28.7
27.7
vs Similar (11)
10.9
12.2
10.0
4.3
3.5
4.7
27.6
26.0
28.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
50%
42%
76%
78%
74%
89%
91%
88%
% under line
54%
50%
58%
24%
22%
26%
11%
9%
12%
This opponent (Farense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Farense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.7
10.7
12.6
4.5
4.6
4.4
26.9
27.8
26.0
vs Stronger (16)
11.9
10.4
13.4
5.3
5.5
5.1
24.3
24.9
23.8
vs Similar (32)
11.4
10.5
12.3
4.1
4.0
4.1
28.2
29.3
27.1
vs Weaker (2)
14.0
17.0
11.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
28.5
29.0
28.0
% over line
65%
62%
67%
66%
54%
77%
83%
88%
79%
% under line
35%
38%
33%
34%
46%
23%
17%
12%
21%
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Guimaraes
11.6
Nacional
11.6
Farense
11.6
AVS
10.8
Estrela
10.7
Benfica
10.7
Estoril
10.5
Rio Ave
10.4
FC Porto
10.1
Arouca
10.0
Casa Pia
10.0
SC Braga
9.9
Vizela
9.9
Famalicao
9.8
Boavista
9.5
Moreirense
9.2
Sporting CP
9.0
GIL Vicente
9.0
Santa Clara
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
6.4
Famalicao
6.0
FC Porto
6.0
Guimaraes
5.8
Boavista
5.8
Arouca
5.6
Rio Ave
5.4
AVS
5.4
Estoril
5.4
Vizela
5.1
Nacional
5.1
SC Braga
5.0
Estrela
5.0
Moreirense
4.9
Benfica
4.8
GIL Vicente
4.8
Farense
4.7
Sporting CP
4.5
Casa Pia
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
31.0
Rio Ave
29.4
Santa Clara
29.0
Moreirense
28.5
FC Porto
27.8
Boavista
27.7
Nacional
27.6
Farense
27.2
Guimaraes
26.9
Estoril
26.9
Casa Pia
26.7
AVS
26.7
Vizela
26.5
Estrela
26.5
GIL Vicente
26.5
Arouca
26.3
SC Braga
24.7
Sporting CP
24.1
Benfica
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.5%
Under 9.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.1%
Under 3.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.0%
Under 21.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Boavista
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.80
0.23
0.92
0.24
0.71
vs Stronger (24)
0.17
0.75
0.30
0.80
0.07
0.71
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.33
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Farense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Farense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.57
1.00
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.10
0.40
1.60
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.68
0.50
0.75
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Boavista over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Boavista
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.38
0.69
0.47
0.82
vs Stronger (24)
0.38
0.75
0.10
0.60
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.83
1.33
1.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Farense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Farense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.43
0.71
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.30
0.40
1.20
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.58
0.50
0.50
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Boavista over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Boavista
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Onyemaechi17%
Róbert Boženík15%
Miguel Reisinho14%
Vitaliy Lystsov12%
Ilija Vukotić12%
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Joel Silva7%
Sebastián Pérez3%
Salvador Agra3%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Moussa Koné0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Manuel Namora0%
João Gonçalves0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Layvin Kurzawa50%
Miguel Reisinho38%
Pedro Gomes33%
Salvador Agra28%
Bruno Onyemaechi28%
Rodrigo Abascal28%
Vitaliy Lystsov25%
Sebastián Pérez24%
Ibrahima Camará23%
Sidoine Fogning23%
Osman Kakay22%
Róbert Boženík21%
Marco van Ginkel18%
Joel Silva13%
Steven Vitória12%
Manuel Namora12%
Ilija Vukotić12%
Filipe Ferreira11%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Tomáš Vaclík8%
João Barros8%
César Dutra6%
Gonçalo Miguel5%
Moussa Koné0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
João Gonçalves0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
Tomás Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Augusto Dabo8%
Salvador Agra6%
Bruno Onyemaechi6%
Joel Silva3%
Róbert Boženík3%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Moussa Koné0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Miguel Reisinho0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Manuel Namora0%
Vitaliy Lystsov0%
João Gonçalves0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Róbert Boženík30%
Moussa Koné14%
Miguel Reisinho14%
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Salvador Agra6%
Ilija Vukotić4%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Manuel Namora0%
Vitaliy Lystsov0%
João Gonçalves0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Joel Silva0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
Farense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Darío Poveda17%
Tomané16%
Rui Costa13%
Marco Matias11%
Tomás Ribeiro10%
Raúl Silva9%
Neto8%
Rony Lopes7%
Miguel Menino7%
Lucas Áfrico5%
Elves Baldé5%
Filipe Soares5%
Derick Poloni4%
Álex Bermejo Escribano4%
Claudio Falcão3%
Talys0%
Mehdi Merghem0%
Yusupha Njie0%
Artur Jorge0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Ricardo Velho0%
Jaime Pinto0%
Marco Moreno0%
Álex Millán0%
Pastor0%
Paulo Victor0%
Mohamed Belloumi0%
André Seruca0%
Zé Carlos0%
Rivaldo0%
Samuel Justo0%
Kaique0%
Bruno Santos0%
Geovanny Almeida0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Artur Jorge47%
Raúl Silva45%
Neto36%
Tomás Ribeiro30%
Rony Lopes29%
Lucas Áfrico29%
Rafael Barbosa29%
Claudio Falcão27%
André Seruca25%
Marco Moreno24%
Filipe Soares23%
Kaique17%
Paulo Victor16%
Mehdi Merghem15%
Derick Poloni13%
Álex Bermejo Escribano12%
Pastor12%
Jaime Pinto11%
Álex Millán11%
Zé Carlos11%
Miguel Menino11%
Darío Poveda9%
Yusupha Njie7%
Rui Costa7%
Elves Baldé5%
Tomané4%
Marco Matias4%
Ricardo Velho3%
Talys0%
Mohamed Belloumi0%
Rivaldo0%
Samuel Justo0%
Bruno Santos0%
Geovanny Almeida0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rivaldo14%
Derick Poloni13%
Marco Matias11%
Elves Baldé10%
Mehdi Merghem8%
Rui Costa7%
Pastor6%
Artur Jorge5%
Filipe Soares5%
Darío Poveda4%
Claudio Falcão3%
Rony Lopes0%
Talys0%
Raúl Silva0%
Neto0%
Lucas Áfrico0%
Yusupha Njie0%
Tomané0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Ricardo Velho0%
Jaime Pinto0%
Álex Bermejo Escribano0%
Tomás Ribeiro0%
Marco Moreno0%
Álex Millán0%
Paulo Victor0%
Mohamed Belloumi0%
André Seruca0%
Zé Carlos0%
Miguel Menino0%
Samuel Justo0%
Kaique0%
Bruno Santos0%
Geovanny Almeida0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rony Lopes21%
Yusupha Njie21%
Elves Baldé14%
Rui Costa13%
Tomané12%
Mehdi Merghem8%
Claudio Falcão6%
Derick Poloni4%
Darío Poveda4%
Álex Bermejo Escribano4%
Marco Matias4%
Miguel Menino4%
Talys0%
Raúl Silva0%
Neto0%
Lucas Áfrico0%
Artur Jorge0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Filipe Soares0%
Ricardo Velho0%
Jaime Pinto0%
Tomás Ribeiro0%
Marco Moreno0%
Álex Millán0%
Pastor0%
Paulo Victor0%
Mohamed Belloumi0%
André Seruca0%
Zé Carlos0%
Rivaldo0%
Samuel Justo0%
Kaique0%
Bruno Santos0%
Geovanny Almeida0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Sporting CP
Benfica
FC Porto
SC Braga
Santa Clara
Guimaraes
Famalicao
Estoril
Casa Pia
Moreirense
Arouca
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
Nacional
AVS
Estrela
Vizela