This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.20
1.27
0.93
0.93
1.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.50
0.50
1.50
0.25
3.00
vs Similar (22)
1.36
0.91
1.42
0.92
1.30
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.3%
Under 1.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.9%
@ 2.45+4.3%
Under 2.5
57.1%
@ 1.54-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.0%
Under 3.5
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.4%
0-1
10.0%
1-0
9.2%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.5%
0-2 ✓
7.0%
2-0
6.1%
Boavista goals ↓
Moreirense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
10%
7.0%
2.9%
0.9%
1
9.2%
14%
8.1%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.1%
7.5%
4.7%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.3%
2.9%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Boavista goals (down), columns = Moreirense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
FC Porto
2.09
SC Braga
1.94
Santa Clara
1.68
Guimaraes
1.59
Famalicao
1.38
Estoril
1.35
Casa Pia
1.32
Moreirense
1.18
Rio Ave
1.12
Arouca
1.12
GIL Vicente
1.00
Nacional
1.00
AVS
0.86
Estrela
0.85
Farense
0.79
Boavista
0.71
Vizela
0.50
Boavista is 0.47 points worse than Moreirense in terms of average points per game (0.71 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.59
Benfica
2.47
FC Porto
1.91
SC Braga
1.62
Estoril
1.41
Guimaraes
1.38
Famalicao
1.29
Moreirense
1.24
Casa Pia
1.15
Rio Ave
1.15
Santa Clara
1.06
Arouca
1.03
Vizela
1.00
GIL Vicente
1.00
Nacional
0.94
AVS
0.83
Farense
0.74
Estrela
0.71
Boavista
0.71
Boavista is 0.53 goals worse than Moreirense in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sporting CP
0.79
Benfica
0.82
FC Porto
0.88
SC Braga
0.88
Santa Clara
0.94
Guimaraes
1.09
Famalicao
1.15
Casa Pia
1.29
Farense
1.35
GIL Vicente
1.38
Arouca
1.44
Moreirense
1.47
Estrela
1.47
Nacional
1.47
Estoril
1.56
Rio Ave
1.62
AVS
1.72
Boavista
1.74
Vizela
2.50
Boavista is 0.26 goals worse than Moreirense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
71%
FC Porto
62%
Sporting CP
60%
Benfica
58%
SC Braga
57%
Guimaraes
57%
Arouca
53%
GIL Vicente
51%
Famalicao
50%
Estoril
49%
Rio Ave
48%
Moreirense
47%
Nacional
47%
Casa Pia
47%
Estrela
45%
Santa Clara
44%
AVS
43%
Farense
41%
Boavista
40%
Boavista is 7.7 percentage points worse than Moreirense in terms of average possession (40% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Boavista
For 3.7 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
For 3.1 · Against 5.1 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 14.9 · Total 28.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Boavista
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.9
9.4
4.9
5.1
4.7
28.1
28.1
28.0
vs Stronger (39)
9.3
9.3
9.2
5.1
5.4
4.8
28.2
28.7
27.8
vs Similar (11)
10.9
12.2
9.8
4.0
3.5
4.3
27.4
26.0
28.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
55%
41%
70%
70%
70%
88%
90%
86%
% under line
52%
45%
59%
30%
30%
30%
12%
10%
14%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.8
8.8
4.5
4.0
5.1
27.4
26.0
28.9
vs Stronger (10)
8.8
10.0
7.6
4.8
6.0
3.6
26.0
27.2
24.8
vs Similar (33)
9.4
9.6
9.2
4.5
3.5
5.5
28.0
26.2
30.0
vs Weaker (7)
9.7
10.8
8.3
4.3
3.5
5.3
26.6
24.0
30.0
% over line
37%
40%
33%
60%
52%
68%
81%
76%
87%
% under line
63%
60%
67%
40%
48%
32%
19%
24%
13%
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Farense
11.7
Nacional
11.5
Guimaraes
11.4
AVS
11.0
Rio Ave
10.8
Benfica
10.8
Estrela
10.6
FC Porto
10.3
Estoril
10.2
Casa Pia
10.1
SC Braga
10.1
Vizela
10.0
Famalicao
10.0
Arouca
9.7
Boavista
9.3
Moreirense
9.3
GIL Vicente
8.9
Sporting CP
8.7
Santa Clara
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Porto
6.3
Famalicao
6.3
Guimaraes
6.1
Santa Clara
6.0
Boavista
6.0
Arouca
5.6
AVS
5.6
Estoril
5.4
Rio Ave
5.3
Vizela
5.2
Nacional
5.1
Estrela
4.9
SC Braga
4.9
Moreirense
4.9
Farense
4.8
Benfica
4.8
Sporting CP
4.8
GIL Vicente
4.6
Casa Pia
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
30.7
Rio Ave
29.6
Santa Clara
28.9
FC Porto
28.2
Boavista
27.9
Moreirense
27.5
Farense
27.5
Vizela
27.5
Nacional
27.4
Guimaraes
27.1
AVS
26.8
Casa Pia
26.5
Estoril
26.4
Arouca
26.3
GIL Vicente
26.1
Estrela
26.1
Sporting CP
24.3
SC Braga
24.0
Benfica
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.4%
Under 9.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.3%
Under 3.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
86.9%
Under 21.5
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Boavista
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.80
0.31
0.92
0.35
0.71
vs Stronger (24)
0.21
0.75
0.40
0.80
0.07
0.71
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.00
0.00
1.33
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.67
0.53
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.17
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.41
0.83
0.50
0.70
0.30
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Boavista over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Boavista
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.46
0.54
0.47
0.88
vs Stronger (24)
0.33
0.67
0.20
0.40
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.00
1.33
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.50
0.50
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.50
0.58
0.42
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Boavista over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Boavista
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Onyemaechi17%
Róbert Boženík15%
Miguel Reisinho14%
Vitaliy Lystsov12%
Ilija Vukotić12%
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Joel Silva7%
Sebastián Pérez3%
Salvador Agra3%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Moussa Koné0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Manuel Namora0%
João Gonçalves0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Layvin Kurzawa50%
Miguel Reisinho38%
Pedro Gomes33%
Salvador Agra28%
Bruno Onyemaechi28%
Rodrigo Abascal28%
Vitaliy Lystsov25%
Sebastián Pérez24%
Ibrahima Camará23%
Sidoine Fogning23%
Osman Kakay22%
Róbert Boženík21%
Marco van Ginkel18%
Joel Silva13%
Steven Vitória12%
Manuel Namora12%
Ilija Vukotić12%
Filipe Ferreira11%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Tomáš Vaclík8%
João Barros8%
César Dutra6%
Gonçalo Miguel5%
Moussa Koné0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
João Gonçalves0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
Tomás Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Augusto Dabo8%
Salvador Agra6%
Bruno Onyemaechi6%
Joel Silva3%
Róbert Boženík3%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Moussa Koné0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Miguel Reisinho0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Manuel Namora0%
Vitaliy Lystsov0%
João Gonçalves0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Róbert Boženík30%
Moussa Koné14%
Miguel Reisinho14%
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Salvador Agra6%
Ilija Vukotić4%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Manuel Namora0%
Vitaliy Lystsov0%
João Gonçalves0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Joel Silva0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
Moreirense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yan Maranhão38%
Gabrielzinho17%
Guilherme Schettine17%
Luís Asué16%
Alan16%
Cedric Teguia15%
Bernardo Martins13%
Madson de Souza Silva11%
Joel Jorquera8%
Ivo Rodrigues8%
Dinis Pinto7%
Lawrence Ofori4%
Maracás3%
Rúben Ramos Ismael3%
Sidnei Tavares3%
Godfried Frimpong3%
Marcelo3%
Kewin0%
Carlos Ponck0%
Caio0%
Jeremy Antonisse0%
Fabiano Silva0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Leonardo Buta0%
Michel Augusto0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Pedro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Michel Augusto40%
Dinis Pinto30%
Leonardo Buta29%
Yan Maranhão25%
Sidnei Tavares24%
Bernardo Martins23%
Marcelo21%
Maracás21%
Rúben Ramos Ismael21%
Godfried Frimpong20%
Gilberto Batista20%
Alan19%
Pedro Santos19%
Fabiano Silva18%
Ivo Rodrigues15%
Kewin14%
Guilherme Schettine13%
Cedric Teguia8%
Jeremy Antonisse7%
Gabrielzinho6%
Madson de Souza Silva5%
Lawrence Ofori4%
Luís Asué3%
Carlos Ponck0%
Caio0%
Joel Jorquera0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alan19%
Guilherme Schettine13%
Godfried Frimpong10%
Bernardo Martins10%
Luís Asué10%
Ivo Rodrigues8%
Cedric Teguia8%
Gabrielzinho6%
Madson de Souza Silva5%
Lawrence Ofori4%
Dinis Pinto4%
Maracás3%
Rúben Ramos Ismael3%
Sidnei Tavares3%
Kewin0%
Carlos Ponck0%
Caio0%
Marcelo0%
Jeremy Antonisse0%
Joel Jorquera0%
Fabiano Silva0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Leonardo Buta0%
Yan Maranhão0%
Michel Augusto0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Pedro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luís Asué23%
Guilherme Schettine17%
Madson de Souza Silva11%
Alan10%
Cedric Teguia8%
Gabrielzinho6%
Dinis Pinto4%
Ivo Rodrigues0%
Maracás0%
Kewin0%
Carlos Ponck0%
Caio0%
Lawrence Ofori0%
Godfried Frimpong0%
Bernardo Martins0%
Marcelo0%
Rúben Ramos Ismael0%
Jeremy Antonisse0%
Joel Jorquera0%
Fabiano Silva0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Sidnei Tavares0%
Leonardo Buta0%
Yan Maranhão0%
Michel Augusto0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Pedro Santos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Sporting CP
Benfica
FC Porto
SC Braga
Santa Clara
Guimaraes
Famalicao
Estoril
Casa Pia
Arouca
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
Nacional
AVS
Estrela
Farense
Vizela