This Ireland: Premier Division match between Bohemians and Derry City on August 21st is finely balanced, with Bohemians coming off three straight defeats, but Derry City having just secured a win. The model's selection is the home win, with a 38% probability, just ahead of the 31% chance of a Derry City win and a 31% draw. The expected total goals is 2.3, with the most likely total goals being 2. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4% probability.
Bohemians have a similar strength tier at home, scoring an average of 1.1 goals and conceding 1.0. Derry City have a similar strength tier away, scoring 1.17 goals and conceding 1.33. The model's suggested picks include Under 3.5 with a 78.9% probability and Over 3.5 cards with a 77.4% probability. The home win percentage is 38%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 31%.
Results analysis
Bohemians, riding a win, faced Derry City, who had just suffered a defeat. The match finished 5-3 in favour of the home side, a total that far exceeded the model’s expected 2.3 goals. The pre-match favourite was a Home win, with a 38% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selections were mixed: Under 7.5 (99.7%) missed, Under 6.5 (99.0%) missed, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (97.4%) hit, Under 5.5 (96.7%) missed, Home under 3.5 goals (96.2%) missed, and Under 4.5 (91.1%) missed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bohemians win✓ Hit
38.3%
Avg Implied 46.3% · @ 1.99
Edge
-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
SBO
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Dafabet
2.02
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.35
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.52
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.44
1xBet
3.44
Derry City win✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.53
Edge
+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.81
10Bet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.62
1xBet
3.62
Betfair
3.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bohemians
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.30
1.21
1.21
1.81
1.38
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.67
0.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.56
1.15
1.31
1.15
1.79
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.13
1.67
1.13
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.35
1.30
1.55
1.27
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.57
2.00
0.75
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bohemians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.3%
@ 1.27-4.1%
Under 1.5
30.7%
@ 3.50+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.36
888Sport
1.33
Pinnacle
1.29
Betano
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.73
Superbet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.7%
@ 1.90-7.9%
Under 2.5
58.3%
@ 1.86+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.10
SBO
2.06
888Sport
2.05
Pinnacle
1.89
Betfair
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.98
Bet365
1.95
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.91
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.1%
@ 3.18-8.3%
Under 3.5
78.9%
@ 1.32+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.80
888Sport
3.75
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.22
BetVictor
3.13
Under
Pinnacle
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.9%
@ 1.71-5.4%
No
51.1%
@ 2.03+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.75
Superbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
No
Betfair
2.15
William Hil
2.10
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 6.21+7.2%
0-0
10.9%@ 9.84+6.3%
1-0
10.6%@ 7.15+4.3%
0-1
9.2%@ 10.19+4.8%
2-1
8.2%@ 7.93+2.5%
2-0
7.4%@ 9.27+2.6%
1-2
7.2%@ 11.03+3.2%
0-2
5.8%@ 17.00+3.2%
Bohemians goals ↓
Derry City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.2%
5.8%
2.1%
0.6%
1
11%
14%
7.2%
2.7%
0.7%
2
7.4%
8.2%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.1%
3.4%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bohemians goals (down), columns = Derry City goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.96
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Bohemians
1.72
Dundalk
1.38
Shelbourne
1.30
Galway United
1.21
Derry City
1.17
Waterford
1.10
Drogheda United
0.97
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Bohemians is 0.55 points better than Derry City in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.72
Shamrock Rovers
1.64
Dundalk
1.59
St Patrick's Athl.
1.55
Derry City
1.41
Shelbourne
1.37
Waterford
1.34
Galway United
1.29
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Bohemians is 0.31 goals better than Derry City in terms of goals scored per game (1.72 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.96
Bohemians
1.17
Derry City
1.38
Shelbourne
1.44
Galway United
1.50
Dundalk
1.55
Sligo Rovers
1.66
Drogheda United
1.66
Waterford
1.66
Bohemians is 0.21 goals better than Derry City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Bohemians
59%
St Patrick's Athl.
55%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
46%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
40%
Waterford
39%
Bohemians is 4.6 percentage points better than Derry City in terms of average possession (59% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bohemians
For 5.6 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 14.2 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derry City
For 5.7 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 11.1 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bohemians
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.0
10.2
4.6
5.1
4.1
23.5
23.8
23.2
vs Stronger (3)
10.0
11.0
9.0
3.7
6.0
2.5
30.0
27.0
33.0
vs Similar (47)
10.1
10.0
10.2
4.6
5.0
4.2
23.2
23.6
22.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
61%
48%
64%
75%
54%
60%
65%
56%
% under line
46%
39%
52%
36%
25%
46%
40%
35%
44%
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.1
10.0
5.1
4.4
5.8
23.1
22.1
24.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
9.0
9.0
8.9
5.5
4.8
6.3
24.5
23.2
25.9
vs Weaker (14)
10.9
9.3
12.4
4.1
3.6
4.7
19.6
19.3
19.9
% over line
45%
32%
58%
72%
60%
84%
65%
60%
71%
% under line
55%
68%
42%
28%
40%
16%
35%
40%
29%
This opponent (Bohemians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
11.1
Waterford
10.9
Galway United
10.5
Dundalk
10.4
St Patrick's Athl.
10.3
Drogheda United
10.2
Bohemians
10.0
Shelbourne
9.7
Derry City
9.4
Shamrock Rovers
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.2
Dundalk
5.1
St Patrick's Athl.
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
4.9
Shelbourne
4.8
Bohemians
4.8
Waterford
4.7
Galway United
4.6
Drogheda United
4.6
Sligo Rovers
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bohemians
23.5
Dundalk
23.3
Galway United
23.3
Derry City
23.2
St Patrick's Athl.
23.0
Shamrock Rovers
22.9
Waterford
22.5
Drogheda United
22.1
Shelbourne
21.3
Sligo Rovers
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.0%
@ 1.66+2.1%
Under 9.5
42.0%
@ 2.10-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.70
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.64
Under
Unibet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.12
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.07
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
77.4%
Under 3.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
66.3%
Under 21.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bohemians or Draw✓ Hit
68.8%
Avg Implied 73.7% · @ 1.26
Edge
-4.9%
38%
31%
31%
covers Bohemians + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Bohemians or Derry City✓ Hit
69.4%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.28
Edge
-3.6%
38%
31%
31%
covers Bohemians + Derry City
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Derry City✗ Miss
61.7%
Avg Implied 53.2% · @ 1.75
Edge
+8.5%
38%
31%
31%
covers Draw + Derry City
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.82
Betfair
1.80
SBO
1.77
1xBet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bohemians over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.3%
@ 1.19-6.4%
Under
28.7%
@ 4.15+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Pinnacle
4.40
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Bohemians over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.4%
@ 2.00-11.1%
Under
64.6%
@ 1.74+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.15
888Sport
2.15
Pinnacle
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Bohemians over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
13.1%
@ 4.13-9.4%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.20+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.30
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Bohemians over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
3.8%
@ 10.10-5.6%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.05+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
13.00
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.50
Betfair
9.50
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Derry City over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.8%
@ 1.40+0.4%
Under
33.2%
@ 2.76-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.48
888Sport
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.94
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.82
Superbet
2.82
BetVictor
2.80
Derry City over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
30.1%
@ 2.97-1.1%
Under
69.9%
@ 1.35+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.30
888Sport
3.20
Pinnacle
3.09
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.95
Under
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Derry City over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
10.0%
@ 7.58-2.3%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.06+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
9.50
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.90
Betfair
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Derry City over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 21.25-2.0%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
23.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bohemians, so a minus line means Bohemians give that many goals of a start and Derry City receive them. At -1, Bohemians must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bohemians win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bohemians)Actual: Draw
Bohemians -2
5.9%
@ 8.14-5.1%
Draw -2
11.5%
@ 5.65-4.4%
Derry City +2
82.6%
@ 1.23+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
7.70
Unibet
7.50
Draw
Marathonbet
6.05
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.20
Away
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Handicap -1 (Bohemians)Actual: Bohemians
Bohemians -1
17.4%
@ 3.66-7.0%
Draw -1
20.9%
@ 3.61-3.8%
Derry City +1
61.7%
@ 1.75+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.58
Unibet
3.45
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Away
Marathonbet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.76
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Handicap +1 (Bohemians)Actual: Bohemians
Bohemians +1
68.8%
@ 1.25-2.6%
Draw +1
18.3%
@ 5.16+0.9%
Derry City -1
12.9%
@ 8.02+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Away
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.10
10Bet
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.00
Handicap +2 (Bohemians)Actual: Bohemians
Bohemians +2
87.1%
@ 1.06-0.6%
Draw +2
8.9%
@ 11.50+0.9%
Derry City -2
3.9%
@ 22.00-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
11.00
Away
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
21.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bohemians
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.57
0.50
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.56
0.62
0.46
0.71
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.40
0.53
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.57
0.36
0.64
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.14
0.50
0.25
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bohemians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.2%
@ 1.35-1.4%
Under 0.5
32.8%
@ 2.95+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Under
William Hil
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.13
Superbet
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.9%
@ 2.68-3.7%
Under 1.5
69.1%
@ 1.42+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.81
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.72
Marathonbet
2.69
Under
Superbet
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
BetVictor
1.43
Betano
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.5%
@ 6.40-4.8%
Under 2.5
90.5%
@ 1.07+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
1xBet
6.75
Superbet
6.10
William Hil
6.00
Under
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.04
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bohemians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.3%
@ 1.84-5.0%
Under
54.7%
@ 1.86+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
Unibet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Bohemians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 5.38-5.2%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.11+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Betano
4.80
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Bohemians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 14.38-4.3%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.3%
@ 2.38+0.3%
Under
60.7%
@ 1.52-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.45
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Unibet
1.54
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 8.68-1.1%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.04+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
9.30
10Bet
9.00
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bohemians
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.70
0.64
0.71
1.12
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
0.00
1.00
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.89
0.59
0.69
0.69
1.07
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
1.27
0.60
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.74
1.18
0.64
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.43
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bohemians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bohemians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.7%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Betfair
1.03
+4.6%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.03
+5.6%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
91.1%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+6.3%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.07
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.04
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.0%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
1.11
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.9%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
+9.4%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
82.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+9.5%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.9%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
+8.3%
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
71.3%
1.19
888Sport
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
-6.4%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.1%
1.37
Superbet
1.44
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
+3.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bohemians
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Douglas James-Taylor29%
C. Whelan28%
R. Tierney23%
Dayle Rooney19%
Zane Myers19%
Patrick Hickey17%
H. Vaughan12%
C. Parsons12%
D. Devoy11%
M. Strods11%
A. McDonnell4%
S. Todd4%
Jordan Flores4%
N. Morahan0%
Cian Byrne0%
K. Chorążka0%
D. Power0%
Ryan Burke0%
S. Diallo0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
S. Mullen0%
P. Walters0%
Hugh Martin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
D. Devoy32%
H. Vaughan21%
Jordan Flores19%
Dayle Rooney19%
S. Mullen19%
Patrick Hickey17%
A. McDonnell17%
R. Tierney17%
S. Todd12%
Douglas James-Taylor12%
S. Diallo7%
Zane Myers6%
M. Strods5%
Cian Byrne5%
C. Parsons4%
D. Power3%
N. Morahan0%
K. Chorążka0%
C. Whelan0%
Ryan Burke0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
P. Walters0%
Hugh Martin0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Douglas James-Taylor18%
M. Strods16%
D. Devoy14%
Dayle Rooney14%
C. Whelan14%
H. Vaughan12%
R. Tierney10%
Jordan Flores8%
S. Diallo7%
N. Morahan6%
S. Mullen5%
C. Parsons4%
A. McDonnell0%
S. Todd0%
Cian Byrne0%
K. Chorążka0%
D. Power0%
Ryan Burke0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
P. Walters0%
Patrick Hickey0%
Zane Myers0%
Hugh Martin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Whelan17%
Dayle Rooney10%
H. Vaughan8%
D. Devoy7%
R. Tierney7%
Zane Myers6%
Douglas James-Taylor6%
S. Mullen5%
C. Parsons4%
Patrick Hickey3%
A. McDonnell0%
Jordan Flores0%
N. Morahan0%
S. Todd0%
Cian Byrne0%
K. Chorążka0%
D. Power0%
Ryan Burke0%
S. Diallo0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
P. Walters0%
M. Strods0%
Hugh Martin0%
Derry City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kévin Santos30%
Ellis Chapman25%
Tyler Smith25%
Michael Duffy24%
James Clarke22%
Afolabi Akinyemi18%
Alex Bannon17%
Liam Boyce14%
Henry Rylah14%
C. Dummigan11%
Adam O'Reilly8%
B. Cotter8%
Darragh Markey6%
Josh Thomas5%
Conor Barr5%
Patrick McClean5%
J. Olayinka4%
C. Winchester0%
Brandon Fleming0%
J. McClean0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Jamie Stott0%
Brian Maher0%
Ben Doherty0%
R. Slevin0%
Darragh Burns0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster67%
Patrick McClean36%
Gavin Whyte33%
Jamie Stott32%
Adam O'Reilly28%
C. Dummigan28%
Darragh Markey28%
J. McClean25%
Darragh Burns25%
Brandon Fleming24%
C. Winchester23%
Josh Thomas21%
B. Cotter20%
Ben Doherty18%
James Clarke17%
Liam Boyce14%
R. Slevin12%
Kévin Santos10%
J. Olayinka8%
Henry Rylah7%
Afolabi Akinyemi6%
Michael Duffy5%
Eddie Beach5%
Ellis Chapman0%
Tyler Smith0%
Brian Maher0%
Nick Twisk0%
Alex Bannon0%
Conor Barr0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Darragh Burns50%
Gavin Whyte33%
J. McClean25%
Michael Duffy19%
Alex Bannon17%
Liam Boyce14%
Kévin Santos10%
Ben Doherty9%
Brandon Fleming8%
Adam O'Reilly8%
Henry Rylah7%
C. Dummigan6%
Jamie Stott5%
Patrick McClean5%
James Clarke4%
J. Olayinka4%
Ellis Chapman0%
C. Winchester0%
Tyler Smith0%
Brian Maher0%
Darragh Markey0%
B. Cotter0%
Afolabi Akinyemi0%
R. Slevin0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Josh Thomas0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
Conor Barr0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Michael Duffy43%
Ellis Chapman25%
Liam Boyce14%
Afolabi Akinyemi6%
Josh Thomas5%
Patrick McClean5%
James Clarke4%
J. Olayinka4%
Brandon Fleming4%
Adam O'Reilly4%
C. Winchester0%
J. McClean0%
Tyler Smith0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Jamie Stott0%
C. Dummigan0%
Brian Maher0%
Darragh Markey0%
B. Cotter0%
Ben Doherty0%
R. Slevin0%
Darragh Burns0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
Alex Bannon0%
Kévin Santos0%
Henry Rylah0%
Conor Barr0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
Bohemians and Derry City have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
Bohemians and Derry City have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
Bohemians and Derry City have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
Bohemians and Derry City have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
Shelbourne
Galway United
Waterford
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers