Bohemians, fresh from a 5-3 win over Derry City, are the clear favorites, with the model assigning a 56 % chance of victory, 25 % for a draw and 19 % to Sligo Rovers. The prediction favours a home win and expects 2.9 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 24 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.7 % probability. Bohemians average 1.64 goals scored and 1.27 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Sligo Rovers average 0.56 scored and 1.33 conceded on the road. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.1 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0 %), Under 6.5 (97.2 % with an 8 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.2 % with an 8 % edge), Away under 1.5 HT goals (93.5 % with a 3 % edge) and Home +2 handicap (92.8 %).
Results analysis
Bohemians extended a two-game winning run with a 3-0 victory over Sligo Rovers, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win at 56% probability. The final score of 3-0 matched the actual result, and the model’s favourite call was correct. The model’s selection of Away under 2.5 HT goals, with a 99.1% probability, hit, as did Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 6.5 (97.2%), Away under 1.5 HT goals (93.3%) and Home +2 handicap (92.9%). The only miss was Home under 2.5 HT goals, which had a 94.8% probability. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bohemians win✓ Hit
56.3%
Avg Implied 74.6% · @ 1.24
Edge
-18.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.29
Unibet
1.27
SBO
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied 16.2% · @ 5.74
Edge
+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
6.25
Dafabet
6.20
Marathonbet
6.15
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Sligo Rovers win✗ Miss
19.1%
Avg Implied 9.2% · @ 10.05
Edge
+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
11.50
Marathonbet
11.25
Dafabet
11.00
Pinnacle
10.67
1xBet
10.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bohemians
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.40
1.57
1.43
1.81
1.38
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.67
0.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.74
1.26
1.69
1.38
1.79
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sligo Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.57
1.00
1.53
0.73
1.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.70
0.50
1.25
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.50
1.18
1.64
0.56
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Bohemians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.2%
@ 1.14-2.3%
Under 1.5
20.8%
@ 5.04+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Pinnacle
5.48
BetVictor
5.25
Superbet
4.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.9%
@ 1.49-7.4%
Under 2.5
45.1%
@ 2.46+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.62
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45
Marathonbet
2.44
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.5%
@ 2.25-9.1%
Under 3.5
67.5%
@ 1.60+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.27
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.66
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.8%
@ 1.93+6.8%
No
45.2%
@ 1.78-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
BetVictor
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
No
Betfair
1.87
Unibet
1.83
10Bet
1.83
William Hil
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%@ 10.34+7.4%
2-1
9.9%@ 8.24+4.5%
2-0
9.8%@ 6.27+2.7%
1-0
9.4%@ 7.69+3.6%
0-0
6.7%@ 15.72+3.9%
3-1
6.2%@ 9.86+1.6%
3-0 ✓
6.1%@ 7.49+0.1%
1-2
5.4%@ 25.58+3.6%
Bohemians goals ↓
Sligo Rovers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
4.6%
2.9%
1.0%
0.2%
1
9.4%
12%
5.4%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.8%
9.9%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.1%
6.2%
3.1%
1.0%
0.3%
4
2.8%
2.9%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bohemians goals (down), columns = Sligo Rovers goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.96
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Bohemians
1.72
Dundalk
1.38
Shelbourne
1.30
Galway United
1.21
Derry City
1.17
Waterford
1.10
Drogheda United
0.97
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Bohemians is 0.93 points better than Sligo Rovers in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 0.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.72
Shamrock Rovers
1.64
Dundalk
1.59
St Patrick's Athl.
1.55
Derry City
1.41
Shelbourne
1.37
Waterford
1.34
Galway United
1.29
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Bohemians is 0.93 goals better than Sligo Rovers in terms of goals scored per game (1.72 vs 0.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.96
Bohemians
1.17
Derry City
1.38
Shelbourne
1.44
Galway United
1.50
Dundalk
1.55
Sligo Rovers
1.66
Drogheda United
1.66
Waterford
1.66
Bohemians is 0.48 goals better than Sligo Rovers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.66).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Bohemians
59%
St Patrick's Athl.
55%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
46%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
40%
Waterford
39%
Bohemians is 12.1 percentage points better than Sligo Rovers in terms of average possession (59% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bohemians
For 6.1 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 13.9 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sligo Rovers
For 3.0 · Against 7.8 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 10.9 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bohemians
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
10.0
4.5
5.0
4.0
23.4
23.6
23.2
vs Stronger (3)
10.0
11.0
9.0
3.7
6.0
2.5
30.0
27.0
33.0
vs Similar (47)
10.0
10.0
10.0
4.6
5.0
4.2
23.2
23.5
22.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
62%
46%
62%
72%
52%
60%
62%
58%
% under line
46%
38%
54%
38%
28%
48%
40%
38%
42%
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sligo Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
10.8
11.6
4.0
4.0
4.0
19.3
20.6
18.0
vs Stronger (16)
10.3
10.6
10.0
3.4
4.5
2.2
18.5
21.4
15.3
vs Similar (34)
11.6
10.9
12.2
4.3
3.8
4.9
19.7
20.2
19.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
63%
60%
67%
50%
52%
48%
29%
32%
25%
% under line
37%
40%
33%
50%
48%
52%
71%
68%
75%
This opponent (Bohemians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
11.2
Waterford
10.9
Galway United
10.5
Dundalk
10.4
St Patrick's Athl.
10.3
Drogheda United
10.2
Bohemians
10.0
Shelbourne
9.7
Derry City
9.5
Shamrock Rovers
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.2
Dundalk
5.1
St Patrick's Athl.
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
4.8
Bohemians
4.8
Shelbourne
4.8
Waterford
4.7
Galway United
4.6
Drogheda United
4.5
Sligo Rovers
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Galway United
23.4
Dundalk
23.4
Bohemians
23.3
Derry City
23.0
St Patrick's Athl.
22.9
Shamrock Rovers
22.8
Waterford
22.5
Drogheda United
22.0
Shelbourne
21.3
Sligo Rovers
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
64.3%
@ 1.42-0.5%
Under 9.5
35.7%
@ 2.63+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.41
Under
Unibet
2.90
Betano
2.62
Pinnacle
2.58
Superbet
2.57
Marathonbet
2.56
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
66.1%
Under 3.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
48.4%
Under 21.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bohemians or Draw✓ Hit
80.9%
Avg Implied 90.0% · @ 1.04
Edge
-9.2%
56%
25%
19%
covers Bohemians + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
William Hil
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Bohemians or Sligo Rovers✓ Hit
75.4%
Avg Implied 84.7% · @ 1.11
Edge
-9.2%
56%
25%
19%
covers Bohemians + Sligo Rovers
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.12
Draw or Sligo Rovers✗ Miss
43.7%
Avg Implied 25.3% · @ 3.71
Edge
+18.4%
56%
25%
19%
covers Draw + Sligo Rovers
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Betano
3.95
1xBet
3.88
BetVictor
3.80
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bohemians over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.5%
@ 1.04-5.8%
Under
15.5%
@ 9.78+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Under
1xBet
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
Betano
7.60
Bohemians over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
55.6%
@ 1.31-15.4%
Under
44.4%
@ 3.21+15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.48
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
Betfair
3.20
Bohemians over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
28.7%
@ 1.98-18.2%
Under
71.3%
@ 1.75+18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
1.99
Betano
1.98
Unibet
1.98
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Betano
1.78
Bohemians over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 3.50-14.5%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.26+14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.58
Unibet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
63.6%
@ 1.81+12.5%
Under
36.4%
@ 1.90-12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.88
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.8%
@ 5.07+8.5%
Under
73.2%
@ 1.13-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 14.44+1.7%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.02-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
16.00
Marathonbet
12.25
1xBet
12.20
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Sligo Rovers over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 51.00-98.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bohemians, so a minus line means Bohemians give that many goals of a start and Sligo Rovers receive them. At -1, Bohemians must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bohemians win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bohemians)Actual: Bohemians
Bohemians -2
15.7%
@ 2.76-16.6%
Draw -2
17.6%
@ 3.89-5.3%
Sligo Rovers +2
66.7%
@ 1.99+21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.00
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.80
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.52
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Unibet
3.75
Away
Marathonbet
2.11
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
1.92
Betfair
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Handicap -1 (Bohemians)Actual: Bohemians
Bohemians -1
33.3%
@ 1.73-18.6%
Draw -1
23.0%
@ 3.74-0.9%
Sligo Rovers +1
43.7%
@ 3.71+19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Unibet
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Away
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.35
Handicap +1 (Bohemians)Actual: Bohemians
Bohemians +1
80.9%
@ 1.04-8.3%
Draw +1
12.0%
@ 12.50+4.5%
Sligo Rovers -1
7.1%
@ 27.50+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Away
Bet365
29.00
Betfair
26.00
Handicap +2 (Bohemians)Actual: Bohemians
Bohemians +2
92.9%
@ 1.02-1.6%
Draw +2
5.2%
@ 23.00+1.0%
Sligo Rovers -2
2.0%
@ 71.00+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Betfair
23.00
Away
Betfair
71.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bohemians
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.57
0.57
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.59
0.62
0.54
0.71
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sligo Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.60
0.53
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.60
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.50
0.64
0.45
0.11
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bohemians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.9%
@ 1.24-3.8%
Under 0.5
29.1%
@ 3.66+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Under
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.75
William Hil
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.58
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.6%
@ 2.17-7.3%
Under 1.5
64.4%
@ 1.63+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.23
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.65
William Hil
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.63
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
13.1%
@ 4.74-6.5%
Under 2.5
86.9%
@ 1.15+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
4.80
1xBet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.60
Under
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bohemians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
55.9%
@ 1.39-10.8%
Under
44.1%
@ 2.79+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
2.98
Superbet
2.82
1xBet
2.80
10Bet
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Bohemians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
19.0%
@ 2.84-13.6%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.38+13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.96
10Bet
2.90
Betano
2.87
Marathonbet
2.83
1xBet
2.75
Under
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Bohemians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
5.2%
@ 6.80-8.4%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.07+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
33.9%
@ 3.22+5.0%
Under
66.1%
@ 1.30-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.58
Marathonbet
3.26
Superbet
3.25
Betano
3.25
1xBet
3.10
Under
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 10.50-2.3%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.03+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
12.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
1xBet
1.03
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bohemians
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.77
1.00
0.86
1.12
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
0.00
1.00
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.07
0.67
1.08
0.85
1.07
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sligo Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.03
0.40
1.00
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.10
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.50
1.00
0.55
1.18
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bohemians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.4%
@ 1.15-2.6%
Under 0.5
21.6%
@ 4.89+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Under
1xBet
5.05
Marathonbet
5.05
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Betano
4.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
47.9%
@ 1.73-5.7%
Under 1.5
52.1%
@ 2.00+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Under
Marathonbet
2.07
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Superbet
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.0%
@ 3.22-7.7%
Under 2.5
79.0%
@ 1.30+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.20
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Under
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bohemians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
64.9%
@ 1.26-8.8%
Under
35.1%
@ 3.52+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Under
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.55
10Bet
3.40
Bohemians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
28.2%
@ 2.19-14.0%
Under
71.8%
@ 1.60+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.30
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.13
Betano
2.12
Under
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Superbet
1.59
10Bet
1.55
Bohemians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 4.72-11.4%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.15+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.25
1xBet
4.70
Betano
4.20
Under
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
40.8%
@ 2.62+5.6%
Under
59.2%
@ 1.43-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.72
Superbet
2.70
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.60
10Bet
2.45
Under
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.39
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.8%
@ 9.29-1.1%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.03+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.00
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.2%
1.02
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.8%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+8.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.3%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.9%
1.02
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.8%
1.15
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.14
10Bet
1.12
-
-
+11.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
88.0%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+14.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.15
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
84.5%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.6%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.0%
1.38
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.36
+13.6%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
80.9%
1.04
BetVictor
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
William Hil
1.05
Betfair
1.05
-9.2%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
80.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
-8.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.2%
1.14
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.0%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.4%
1.15
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.12
-2.6%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
75.5%
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
-
-
-
+1.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
75.4%
1.11
10Bet
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.12
-9.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
73.2%
1.13
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.13
-8.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
71.8%
1.60
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Superbet
1.59
10Bet
1.55
+14.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
71.3%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Betano
1.78
+18.2%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.9%
1.24
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
-3.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bohemians
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Douglas James-Taylor29%
C. Whelan28%
R. Tierney23%
Dayle Rooney19%
Zane Myers19%
Patrick Hickey17%
H. Vaughan12%
C. Parsons12%
D. Devoy11%
M. Strods11%
A. McDonnell4%
S. Todd4%
Jordan Flores4%
N. Morahan0%
Cian Byrne0%
K. Chorążka0%
D. Power0%
Ryan Burke0%
S. Diallo0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
S. Mullen0%
P. Walters0%
Hugh Martin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
D. Devoy32%
H. Vaughan21%
Jordan Flores19%
Dayle Rooney19%
S. Mullen19%
Patrick Hickey17%
A. McDonnell17%
R. Tierney17%
S. Todd12%
Douglas James-Taylor12%
S. Diallo7%
Zane Myers6%
M. Strods5%
Cian Byrne5%
C. Parsons4%
D. Power3%
N. Morahan0%
K. Chorążka0%
C. Whelan0%
Ryan Burke0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
P. Walters0%
Hugh Martin0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Douglas James-Taylor18%
M. Strods16%
D. Devoy14%
Dayle Rooney14%
C. Whelan14%
H. Vaughan12%
R. Tierney10%
Jordan Flores8%
S. Diallo7%
N. Morahan6%
S. Mullen5%
C. Parsons4%
A. McDonnell0%
S. Todd0%
Cian Byrne0%
K. Chorążka0%
D. Power0%
Ryan Burke0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
P. Walters0%
Patrick Hickey0%
Zane Myers0%
Hugh Martin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Whelan17%
Dayle Rooney10%
H. Vaughan8%
D. Devoy7%
R. Tierney7%
Zane Myers6%
Douglas James-Taylor6%
S. Mullen5%
C. Parsons4%
Patrick Hickey3%
A. McDonnell0%
Jordan Flores0%
N. Morahan0%
S. Todd0%
Cian Byrne0%
K. Chorążka0%
D. Power0%
Ryan Burke0%
S. Diallo0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
P. Walters0%
M. Strods0%
Hugh Martin0%
Sligo Rovers
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
William Fitzgerald21%
Jad Hakiki17%
Cian Kavanagh13%
Archie Meekison10%
A. Nolan10%
Mai Traore7%
Sean McHale6%
Ryan O'Kane6%
D. Patton5%
Carl McHugh5%
J. Esua4%
G. McElroy4%
S. Sargeant0%
Shane Blaney0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Jamie McGonigle0%
Oliver Denham0%
Sean Stewart0%
S. Quirk0%
J. McManus0%
Jack Shorrock0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Guilherme Rego Priosti0%
Luke Pearce0%
Trey George0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ciaron Harkin40%
J. Esua22%
Luke Pearce20%
S. Quirk19%
Carl McHugh18%
J. McManus16%
G. McElroy14%
William Fitzgerald12%
Sean Stewart12%
Oliver Denham12%
Shane Blaney10%
A. Nolan10%
Cian Kavanagh9%
S. Sargeant7%
Mai Traore7%
Sean McHale6%
Ryan O'Kane6%
Archie Meekison5%
D. Patton5%
Jamie McGonigle0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Jack Shorrock0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Guilherme Rego Priosti0%
Trey George0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGonigle25%
Luke Pearce20%
Archie Meekison14%
William Fitzgerald12%
Cian Kavanagh9%
Sean Stewart6%
Ryan O'Kane6%
A. Nolan5%
Carl McHugh5%
J. Esua4%
S. Sargeant0%
Shane Blaney0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Mai Traore0%
Oliver Denham0%
S. Quirk0%
J. McManus0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Jack Shorrock0%
G. McElroy0%
D. Patton0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Guilherme Rego Priosti0%
Sean McHale0%
Trey George0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cian Kavanagh22%
Mai Traore7%
S. Quirk6%
Ryan O'Kane6%
A. Nolan5%
S. Sargeant0%
Shane Blaney0%
Carl McHugh0%
Archie Meekison0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
William Fitzgerald0%
J. Esua0%
Jamie McGonigle0%
Oliver Denham0%
Sean Stewart0%
J. McManus0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Jack Shorrock0%
G. McElroy0%
D. Patton0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Guilherme Rego Priosti0%
Sean McHale0%
Luke Pearce0%
Trey George0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
Bohemians's squad is €2m more valuable than Sligo Rovers's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
Bohemians and Sligo Rovers have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
Bohemians and Sligo Rovers have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
Bohemians and Sligo Rovers have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
Shelbourne
Derry City
Galway United
Waterford
Drogheda United