This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.60
1.40
1.40
1.07
1.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.25
0.50
1.50
1.50
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.75
1.62
1.75
0.38
1.75
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
1.10
1.40
0.80
2.00
1.40
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Bologna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.7%
@ 1.79+7.5%
Under 2.5
39.3%
@ 2.04-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.1%
No
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
6.6%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
0-0
5.4%
3-1
5.3%
Bologna goals ↓
Fiorentina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
5.0%
4.2%
2.0%
0.7%
1
6.5%
12%
7.4%
3.4%
1.2%
2
6.6%
9.2%
6.4%
3.0%
1.0%
3
3.8%
5.3%
3.7%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.7%
2.3%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bologna goals (down), columns = Fiorentina goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.39
AC Milan
2.08
Atalanta
2.05
Juventus
2.05
Napoli
2.03
Lazio
1.79
AS Roma
1.66
Sassuolo
1.63
Sampdoria
1.37
Hellas Verona
1.13
Genoa
1.11
Bologna
1.08
Udinese
1.05
Fiorentina
1.05
Spezia
1.03
Torino
0.97
Cagliari
0.97
Benevento
0.87
Crotone
0.61
Parma
0.53
Bologna is 0.03 points better than Fiorentina in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atalanta
2.37
Inter
2.34
Napoli
2.26
Juventus
2.03
AC Milan
1.95
AS Roma
1.79
Sassuolo
1.68
Lazio
1.61
Sampdoria
1.37
Spezia
1.37
Bologna
1.34
Torino
1.32
Genoa
1.24
Fiorentina
1.24
Crotone
1.18
Hellas Verona
1.13
Cagliari
1.13
Udinese
1.11
Benevento
1.05
Parma
1.03
Bologna is 0.11 goals better than Fiorentina in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter
0.92
Juventus
1.00
Napoli
1.08
AC Milan
1.08
Atalanta
1.24
Hellas Verona
1.26
Sampdoria
1.42
AS Roma
1.45
Lazio
1.45
Sassuolo
1.47
Udinese
1.53
Genoa
1.53
Cagliari
1.55
Fiorentina
1.55
Bologna
1.71
Torino
1.82
Spezia
1.89
Benevento
1.97
Parma
2.18
Crotone
2.42
Bologna is 0.16 goals worse than Fiorentina in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.55).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bologna
For 3.6 · Against 7.0 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 13.4 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fiorentina
For 4.1 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 13.9 · Total 28.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bologna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
10.8
11.9
4.8
4.8
4.7
28.1
29.0
27.2
vs Stronger (17)
10.5
9.0
11.6
4.8
4.6
5.0
27.5
27.3
27.6
vs Similar (22)
11.6
12.1
11.1
4.6
5.3
3.8
28.7
30.2
26.9
vs Weaker (11)
12.1
10.5
14.0
4.9
4.2
5.8
27.8
28.3
27.2
% over line
72%
72%
72%
64%
68%
60%
88%
96%
80%
% under line
28%
28%
28%
36%
32%
40%
12%
4%
20%
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.7
9.8
4.7
4.5
4.8
27.6
27.7
27.4
vs Stronger (7)
10.3
11.5
9.8
3.7
4.0
3.6
24.9
24.0
25.2
vs Similar (27)
8.9
8.4
9.5
4.8
4.4
5.3
27.5
27.0
28.1
vs Weaker (16)
9.4
8.5
10.2
4.9
4.9
4.9
28.9
30.0
27.8
% over line
44%
28%
60%
76%
80%
72%
86%
80%
92%
% under line
56%
72%
40%
24%
20%
28%
14%
20%
8%
This opponent (Bologna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bologna
11.4
AC Milan
11.1
Sassuolo
10.7
Sampdoria
10.7
Juventus
10.6
Cagliari
10.3
Udinese
10.1
AS Roma
10.1
Hellas Verona
10.1
Lazio
9.9
Torino
9.8
Benevento
9.8
Napoli
9.7
Inter
9.6
Crotone
9.4
Parma
9.3
Fiorentina
9.2
Atalanta
8.8
Genoa
8.8
Spezia
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Crotone
5.3
Sassuolo
5.1
Lazio
5.0
Spezia
5.0
Torino
5.0
AS Roma
5.0
Napoli
4.9
Juventus
4.8
Bologna
4.8
Sampdoria
4.7
Fiorentina
4.7
Parma
4.6
Hellas Verona
4.6
Benevento
4.5
Cagliari
4.5
Genoa
4.5
AC Milan
4.4
Inter
4.4
Atalanta
4.2
Udinese
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torino
31.3
Spezia
29.5
Hellas Verona
29.5
Benevento
29.2
Crotone
29.1
Atalanta
28.6
Bologna
28.1
Fiorentina
27.6
Genoa
27.5
Sampdoria
27.5
Parma
27.5
Cagliari
27.0
Sassuolo
26.7
Udinese
26.5
AS Roma
26.5
Juventus
26.3
AC Milan
26.2
Inter
25.1
Lazio
25.0
Napoli
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.0%
Under 9.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.6%
Under 3.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
91.9%
Under 21.5
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bologna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
1.00
1.00
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
1.70
0.20
2.00
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.42
1.40
0.60
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.75
1.40
0.40
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.53
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.69
0.75
0.75
0.12
0.62
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.40
0.60
0.20
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Bologna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bologna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bologna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bologna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bologna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.67
0.53
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.80
0.60
0.20
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.92
0.80
1.20
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.25
0.60
0.20
2.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.73
0.87
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.56
1.06
0.88
1.00
0.25
1.12
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Bologna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bologna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bologna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bologna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bologna · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Riccardo Orsolini27%
Santiago Castro20%
Jonathan Rowe20%
Federico Bernardeschi18%
Jens Odgaard18%
Thijs Dallinga14%
João Mário13%
Nicolò Cambiaghi10%
Giovanni Fabbian10%
Tommaso Pobega8%
Emil Holm6%
Remo Freuler2%
Jhon Lucumí2%
Nikola Moro2%
Juan Miranda2%
Lewis Ferguson2%
Simon Sohm0%
Ciro Immobile0%
Łukasz Skorupski0%
Lorenzo De Silvestri0%
Charalampos Lykogiannis0%
Federico Ravaglia0%
Nicolò Casale0%
Torbjørn Heggem0%
Nadir Zortea0%
Martin Vitík0%
Benjamín Domínguez0%
Ibrahim Sulemana0%
Eivind Helland0%
Massimo Pessina0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eivind Helland29%
Ibrahim Sulemana25%
Emil Holm24%
Martin Vitík23%
Juan Miranda23%
Jhon Lucumí20%
Lewis Ferguson19%
Federico Ravaglia17%
Lorenzo De Silvestri17%
Charalampos Lykogiannis17%
Remo Freuler15%
Ciro Immobile14%
Federico Bernardeschi14%
João Mário13%
Tommaso Pobega11%
Łukasz Skorupski10%
Nicolò Cambiaghi10%
Santiago Castro8%
Jonathan Rowe7%
Nadir Zortea7%
Simon Sohm6%
Riccardo Orsolini6%
Nicolò Casale6%
Thijs Dallinga6%
Benjamín Domínguez5%
Jens Odgaard5%
Torbjørn Heggem3%
Nikola Moro2%
Giovanni Fabbian0%
Massimo Pessina0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Emil Holm29%
Benjamín Domínguez16%
Nicolò Cambiaghi15%
Jonathan Rowe10%
Nadir Zortea9%
Thijs Dallinga8%
Juan Miranda7%
Santiago Castro6%
Charalampos Lykogiannis6%
Jens Odgaard5%
Remo Freuler5%
Federico Bernardeschi5%
Tommaso Pobega3%
Jhon Lucumí2%
Nikola Moro2%
Riccardo Orsolini2%
Simon Sohm0%
Ciro Immobile0%
Łukasz Skorupski0%
Lorenzo De Silvestri0%
Federico Ravaglia0%
Nicolò Casale0%
Torbjørn Heggem0%
João Mário0%
Lewis Ferguson0%
Martin Vitík0%
Giovanni Fabbian0%
Ibrahim Sulemana0%
Eivind Helland0%
Massimo Pessina0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Riccardo Orsolini29%
Santiago Castro20%
Jens Odgaard15%
Jonathan Rowe12%
Federico Bernardeschi11%
Giovanni Fabbian10%
Tommaso Pobega8%
Thijs Dallinga8%
Nikola Moro2%
Juan Miranda2%
Lewis Ferguson2%
Simon Sohm0%
Ciro Immobile0%
Jhon Lucumí0%
Remo Freuler0%
Łukasz Skorupski0%
Nicolò Cambiaghi0%
Lorenzo De Silvestri0%
Charalampos Lykogiannis0%
Federico Ravaglia0%
Nicolò Casale0%
Torbjørn Heggem0%
João Mário0%
Emil Holm0%
Nadir Zortea0%
Martin Vitík0%
Benjamín Domínguez0%
Ibrahim Sulemana0%
Eivind Helland0%
Massimo Pessina0%
Fiorentina · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cher Ndour33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolò Fagioli33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Christ Inao Oulaï33%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco Brescianini33%
João Mário33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cher Ndour33%
Arthur Atta33%
Franco Mastantuono33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
HV (34)
€57m
SAM (27)
€37m
BEN (30)
€12m
SPE (34)
€11m
Bologna's squad is €112m less valuable than Fiorentina's (€218m vs €330m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
PAR (8)
€35m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
BEN (8)
€4m
SPE (10)
€3m
Bologna's attack is €20m less valuable than Fiorentina's (€104m vs €125m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
CAG (9)
€31m
HV (9)
€14m
SAM (6)
€7m
SPE (11)
€4m
BEN (9)
€3m
Bologna's midfield is €73m less valuable than Fiorentina's (€34m vs €107m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
PAR (12)
€46m
HV (15)
€30m
SAM (14)
€17m
BEN (13)
€5m
SPE (13)
€4m
Bologna's defence is €19m less valuable than Fiorentina's (€79m vs €98m).
Italy: Serie A 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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Inter
AC Milan
Atalanta
Juventus
Napoli
Lazio
AS Roma
Sassuolo
Sampdoria
Hellas Verona
Genoa
Udinese
Spezia
Cagliari
Torino
Benevento
Parma