Pythia gives Bologna a 15% win probability against Inter in the Italy: Serie A on 2026-05-23, with 26% for the draw and 59% for Inter. The model estimates around 2.5 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 0-1 the most likely scoreline (13.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (89%), Under 5.5 cards (83%), Under 11.5 corners (82%), Over 21.5 fouls (79%).
Results analysis
Bologna finished 3-3 against Inter (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 15% home win, 26% draw and 59% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (89%), Under 5.5 cards (83%), Under 11.5 corners (82%), Over 21.5 fouls (79%), Under 10.5 corners (73%), Over 1.5 (72%). Missed: Under 3.5 (77%), Over 2.5 cards (71%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bologna win✗ Miss
14.9%
Avg Implied 31.7% · @ 2.95
Edge
-16.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.7%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.64
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inter win✗ Miss
59.4%
Avg Implied 42.7% · @ 2.19
Edge
+16.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bologna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.43
0.73
1.40
1.67
1.47
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
2.23
0.57
2.14
1.50
2.33
vs Similar (15)
1.27
0.67
0.86
0.57
1.62
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
0.93
2.33
1.13
2.00
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.86
1.57
2.20
2.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (23)
2.26
0.74
2.40
0.70
2.15
0.77
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Bologna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.5%
Under 1.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.6%
@ 1.55-15.8%
Under 2.5
55.4%
@ 2.36+15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.4%
Under 3.5
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.2%
No
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
13.5%
0-2
12.5%
1-1
12.0%
0-0
9.6%
1-2
9.4%
0-3
7.2%
1-3
5.3%
1-0
5.3%
Bologna goals ↓
Inter goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
14%
13%
7.2%
3.1%
1
5.3%
12%
9.4%
5.3%
2.3%
2
2.4%
4.1%
3.5%
2.0%
0.9%
3
0.6%
1.0%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bologna goals (down), columns = Inter goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Lecce
1.00
Cremonese
0.89
Hellas Verona
0.55
Pisa
0.47
Bologna is 0.82 points worse than Inter in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Lazio
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Cremonese
0.84
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Pisa
0.68
Hellas Verona
0.66
Bologna is 1.05 goals worse than Inter in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 2.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
Inter
0.92
AC Milan
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Bologna
1.21
Parma
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Cremonese
1.50
Hellas Verona
1.61
Torino
1.66
Pisa
1.87
Bologna is 0.29 goals worse than Inter in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Cremonese
46%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Pisa
40%
Hellas Verona
40%
Bologna is 4.7 percentage points worse than Inter in terms of average possession (55% vs 60%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bologna
For 4.1 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 13.5 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inter
For 4.9 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 9.6 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bologna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.9
9.1
4.1
3.7
4.4
28.5
26.8
30.1
vs Stronger (19)
9.1
9.3
8.9
3.7
3.2
4.2
27.7
25.4
30.3
vs Similar (29)
9.8
10.4
9.2
4.4
4.1
4.7
29.1
27.9
30.2
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
8.0
9.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
26.0
25.0
27.0
% over line
46%
48%
44%
56%
48%
64%
86%
80%
92%
% under line
54%
52%
56%
44%
52%
36%
14%
20%
8%
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
10.2
8.3
3.4
3.1
3.6
24.0
23.6
24.4
vs Stronger (1)
10.0
-
10.0
5.0
-
5.0
20.0
-
20.0
vs Similar (15)
8.5
8.0
8.9
3.4
3.4
3.4
25.2
23.3
26.9
vs Weaker (34)
9.6
11.1
7.9
3.3
2.9
3.7
23.5
23.7
23.4
% over line
52%
68%
36%
38%
40%
36%
56%
60%
52%
% under line
48%
32%
64%
62%
60%
64%
44%
40%
48%
This opponent (Bologna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lecce
10.1
Udinese
9.7
Juventus
9.6
Bologna
9.5
Atalanta
9.3
Inter
9.3
Cremonese
9.1
Sassuolo
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Cagliari
8.8
Parma
8.8
Lazio
8.8
Genoa
8.8
AC Milan
8.7
AS Roma
8.7
Hellas Verona
8.6
Torino
8.6
Napoli
8.4
Pisa
8.2
Como
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.8
Como
4.6
Genoa
4.5
Sassuolo
4.4
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.2
Pisa
4.1
Hellas Verona
4.1
Cremonese
4.0
Lecce
3.9
Parma
3.8
Cagliari
3.8
Juventus
3.8
Udinese
3.8
AC Milan
3.8
Atalanta
3.6
Torino
3.5
Napoli
3.4
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bologna
28.5
Cremonese
28.4
AS Roma
28.4
Fiorentina
28.1
Cagliari
27.8
Genoa
27.7
Como
26.4
Hellas Verona
25.9
Lecce
25.7
Pisa
25.4
Udinese
25.2
Lazio
25.1
Sassuolo
24.7
Torino
24.6
Parma
24.5
Inter
24.0
Napoli
23.6
Juventus
23.2
AC Milan
22.0
Atalanta
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
38.9%
Under 9.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.5%
Under 3.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
78.6%
Under 21.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bologna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.07
0.67
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.15
0.00
1.14
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.13
0.14
0.29
0.75
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.37
0.87
0.47
0.93
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.86
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (23)
0.96
0.22
0.80
0.20
1.08
0.23
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Bologna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bologna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bologna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bologna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Italy: Serie A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Napoli
AS Roma
Como
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Sassuolo
Parma
Torino
Cagliari
Fiorentina
Genoa
Lecce
Cremonese
Hellas Verona
Pisa