Bologna vs Napoli Result & Analysis

Napoli are tipped to win, with a 49% chance of taking the match while Bologna’s 23% and a 28% draw keep the contest open. The model expects 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals, a 27% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.3% chance. Bologna, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, whereas Napoli, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.9 scored and 0.6 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 89.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 86.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 79.6%, Under 3.5 at 75.0%, Over 1.5 at 73.2% (hit), Over 3.5 cards at 72.5%, and Over 8.5 corners at 71.5% (hit). The match’s probabilities are 23% home win, 28% draw, and 49% away win.

The upset came early, with Bologna snapping a two-match losing streak to claim a 3-2 victory over Napoli. The pre-match favourite, the model’s “Away win” at 49% probability, proved wrong, as the home side’s triumph was the actual result. The model’s selection of “Over 1.5” (73.2%) hit, and “Over 8.5 corners” (71.5%) also succeeded, while every other suggested pick - “Over 19.5 fouls” (89.5%), “Over 2.5 cards” (86.9%), “Over 21.5 fouls” (79.6%), “Under 3.5” (75.0%), and “Over 3.5 cards” (72.5%) - missed. The match delivered more goals than the 2.5 expected total, with the most likely scoreline of 1-1 (13.3%) falling short. Bologna’s form, noted as “after 2 straight defeats,” was finally reversed, while Napoli, coming off a loss, could not capitalize on their strong away numbers.