Bristol Rovers are favoured to win at home, with a 44% chance of victory, a 27% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of a Colchester win. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 25%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.7% probability. Bristol’s home form shows they average 2.0 goals scored and concede 1.07 against similar opposition, while Colchester’s away form averages 1.08 scored and 0.92 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4% with a 3% edge), Under 6.5 (97.3% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.2% with a 5% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0% with a 1% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.6% with a 4% edge) and Under 5.5 (92.9% with a 1% edge). Both teams have been on two-game winning runs, Bristol having beaten Crawley Town 2-0 and Colchester defeating Rochdale 1-0.
Results analysis
The win extends Bristol Rovers’ three-game winning run, while Colchester return from a defeat. The final score was 2-0, confirming a home win. The model’s favourite, Home win, was correct, with a 44% pre-match probability. Every suggested pick turned out to hit: Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3%), Under 6.5 (97.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.9%), and Under 5.5 (92.9%). The model’s predictions were largely accurate, with the favoured result landing and the selections largely coming in.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bristol Rvs win✓ Hit
43.9%
Avg Implied 50.8% · @ 1.83
Edge
-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Dafabet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
SBO
1.84
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.67
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.80
Dafabet
3.80
BetVictor
3.75
Colchester win✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied 23.9% · @ 3.90
Edge
+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.20
Betano
4.10
BetVictor
4.10
10Bet
4.10
Dafabet
4.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bristol Rvs
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.13
2.00
1.07
1.33
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.66
1.07
2.00
1.07
1.29
1.07
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.97
1.44
0.88
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.40
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.42
0.92
1.75
0.92
1.08
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.1%
@ 1.23+3.3%
Under 1.5
20.9%
@ 3.83-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
4.06
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.85
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.6%
@ 1.77+1.3%
Under 2.5
45.4%
@ 2.01-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Under
Bet365
2.08
SBO
2.06
Pinnacle
2.06
1xBet
2.04
Betano
2.02
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.2%
@ 2.88-0.1%
Under 3.5
67.8%
@ 1.37+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.96
Marathonbet
2.81
Under
Superbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.4%
@ 1.68+3.4%
No
41.6%
@ 2.06-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.75
Unibet
1.74
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
No
William Hil
2.10
Bet365
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Marathonbet
2.08
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 6.65+6.0%
2-1
9.2%@ 7.60+3.3%
1-0
8.0%@ 7.29+1.8%
1-2
7.3%@ 11.93+3.6%
2-0 ✓
7.3%@ 8.60+2.1%
0-0
6.9%@ 11.06+2.8%
0-1
6.1%@ 11.31+2.1%
2-2
5.8%@ 12.75+2.3%
Bristol Rvs goals ↓
Colchester goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
6.1%
4.6%
1.9%
0.6%
1
8.0%
13%
7.3%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.3%
9.2%
5.8%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.9%
4.9%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.5%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bristol Rvs goals (down), columns = Colchester goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Bristol Rvs is 0.09 points worse than Colchester in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Bristol Rvs is 0.13 goals worse than Colchester in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Bristol Rvs is 0.35 goals worse than Colchester in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.07).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bristol Rvs
For 4.2 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 9.5 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Colchester
For 5.2 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 12.6 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bristol Rvs
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.4
9.2
4.5
4.6
4.4
23.7
22.9
24.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (49)
9.2
9.4
9.0
4.6
4.6
4.5
23.8
22.9
24.7
vs Weaker (1)
13.0
-
13.0
2.0
-
2.0
19.0
-
19.0
% over line
40%
46%
33%
70%
75%
65%
69%
62%
75%
% under line
60%
54%
67%
30%
25%
35%
31%
38%
25%
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.7
9.4
4.0
4.2
3.8
24.9
24.5
25.2
vs Stronger (9)
8.1
7.5
8.8
3.8
2.2
5.8
25.0
23.8
26.2
vs Similar (40)
9.2
9.0
9.5
4.1
4.8
3.4
24.8
24.6
25.0
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
8.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
39%
32%
46%
60%
62%
58%
76%
76%
75%
% under line
61%
68%
54%
40%
38%
42%
24%
24%
25%
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
York
12.0
Crawley Town
11.9
Swindon
11.4
Walsall
10.5
Grimsby
10.5
Barnet
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Port Vale
10.3
Exeter
10.3
Northampton
10.1
Chesterfield
10.1
Oldham
10.1
Rochdale
10.0
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.6
Crewe
9.5
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Rotherham
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Fleetwood Town
4.0
York
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Salford
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Cheltenham
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.2
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Oldham
25.0
Salford
24.7
Rochdale
24.2
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Grimsby
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.9
Walsall
22.9
Tranmere
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.3
Chesterfield
22.1
Accrington
22.1
Northampton
22.1
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.9
Swindon
20.4
York
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.87
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bristol Rvs or Draw✓ Hit
70.8%
Avg Implied 76.4% · @ 1.22
Edge
-5.6%
44%
27%
29%
covers Bristol Rvs + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
Bristol Rvs or Colchester✓ Hit
73.1%
Avg Implied 75.2% · @ 1.24
Edge
-2.1%
44%
27%
29%
covers Bristol Rvs + Colchester
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Draw or Colchester✗ Miss
56.1%
Avg Implied 48.4% · @ 1.92
Edge
+7.7%
44%
27%
29%
covers Draw + Colchester
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.02
SBO
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.94
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bristol Rvs over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.7%
@ 1.15-1.1%
Under
20.3%
@ 4.84+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.20
1xBet
5.15
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
Bristol Rvs over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
47.4%
@ 1.81-4.0%
Under
52.6%
@ 1.92+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathonbet
1.83
Unibet
1.83
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Under
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Bristol Rvs over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.6%
@ 3.58-4.4%
Under
78.4%
@ 1.26+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.85
Betfair
3.80
Marathonbet
3.64
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Under
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Bristol Rvs over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 7.88-4.0%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.06+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.20
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.60
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Colchester over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.8%
@ 1.41+6.1%
Under
28.2%
@ 2.71-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.98
Marathonbet
2.80
Superbet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Colchester over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.2%
@ 3.03+5.4%
Under
63.8%
@ 1.34-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
3.10
1xBet
3.04
Betano
3.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
Colchester over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 7.79+1.6%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.06-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.30
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Superbet
7.40
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Colchester over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 18.25-1.3%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.01+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bristol Rvs, so a minus line means Bristol Rvs give that many goals of a start and Colchester receive them. At -1, Bristol Rvs must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bristol Rvs win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bristol Rvs)Actual: Draw
Bristol Rvs -2
9.5%
@ 6.53-4.3%
Draw -2
13.6%
@ 5.18-3.7%
Colchester +2
76.9%
@ 1.30+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.85
10Bet
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Draw
Marathonbet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Handicap -1 (Bristol Rvs)Actual: Bristol Rvs
Bristol Rvs -1
23.1%
@ 3.13-5.4%
Draw -1
20.9%
@ 3.60-4.0%
Colchester +1
56.1%
@ 1.91+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.20
Betfair
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Away
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Handicap +1 (Bristol Rvs)Actual: Bristol Rvs
Bristol Rvs +1
70.8%
@ 1.23-2.7%
Draw +1
16.3%
@ 5.55+0.1%
Colchester -1
12.9%
@ 8.77+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.40
Away
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Marathonbet
8.50
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Handicap +2 (Bristol Rvs)Actual: Bristol Rvs
Bristol Rvs +2
87.1%
@ 1.05-0.7%
Draw +2
8.6%
@ 11.63+0.6%
Colchester -2
4.3%
@ 21.67+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
9.90
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bristol Rvs
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.87
0.40
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.66
0.52
0.87
0.40
0.43
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.40
0.50
0.31
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.38
0.67
0.42
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.3%
@ 1.32+1.0%
Under 0.5
28.7%
@ 3.14-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.28
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.20
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
3.16
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.1%
@ 2.54-2.5%
Under 1.5
65.9%
@ 1.46+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
Pinnacle
2.65
Unibet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Superbet
2.55
Under
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.4%
@ 6.24-1.5%
Under 2.5
86.6%
@ 1.09+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
6.10
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bristol Rvs over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.9%
@ 1.73-3.7%
Under
50.1%
@ 2.00+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Under
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Bristol Rvs over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 4.59-6.3%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.16+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
Superbet
4.55
Betano
4.55
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Under
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Bristol Rvs over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 11.75-5.1%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Colchester over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.7%
@ 2.38+4.8%
Under
56.3%
@ 1.52-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Pinnacle
2.41
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.37
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Colchester over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 8.18-1.2%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.04+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.10
1xBet
8.30
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.90
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Colchester over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 31.00-98.3%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
31.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bristol Rvs
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.13
0.67
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.00
0.55
1.13
0.67
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.94
0.56
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.54
1.08
0.50
0.58
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.5%
@ 1.19+0.7%
Under 0.5
21.5%
@ 4.18-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.25
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
45.6%
@ 1.98-1.4%
Under 1.5
54.4%
@ 1.76+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.04
Superbet
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
1xBet
1.99
Under
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.0%
@ 4.07-2.8%
Under 2.5
80.0%
@ 1.20+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.20
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bristol Rvs over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.8%
@ 1.51-5.5%
Under
44.2%
@ 2.40+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.42
10Bet
2.35
Superbet
2.35
Bristol Rvs over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.0%
@ 3.43-7.0%
Under
80.0%
@ 1.27+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.55
Superbet
3.45
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.20
Under
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Bristol Rvs over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 8.60-4.8%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.04+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.20
10Bet
9.00
Superbet
8.80
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Colchester over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
51.8%
@ 1.99+5.1%
Under
48.2%
@ 1.74-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Under
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Colchester over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.6%
@ 6.08-0.6%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.09+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.55
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
6.10
Superbet
5.90
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Colchester over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 18.17-2.3%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.2%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.02
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.1%
1.05
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.08
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.5%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.16
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.4%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.8%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.20
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.27
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.7%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.1%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.5%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.16
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.4%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
76.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+8.0%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
73.1%
1.24
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.8%
1.41
Betano
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
+6.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.3%
1.32
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.33
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.8%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
-5.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
-2.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bristol Rvs
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tom James67%
Bobby Kamwa50%
Ellis Harrison33%
B. Purrington25%
F. Cavegn25%
R. Smallwood0%
J. Aitchison0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Brad Young0%
C. Mola0%
Tommy Leigh0%
Riley Harbottle0%
Shaqai Forde0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tom James67%
Tommy Leigh50%
R. Smallwood25%
Kofi Balmer25%
C. Mola25%
Bobby Kamwa25%
Riley Harbottle25%
Shaqai Forde25%
Ellis Harrison0%
B. Purrington0%
J. Aitchison0%
Brad Young0%
F. Cavegn0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom James33%
Kofi Balmer25%
Brad Young25%
Tommy Leigh25%
R. Smallwood0%
Ellis Harrison0%
B. Purrington0%
J. Aitchison0%
C. Mola0%
Bobby Kamwa0%
Riley Harbottle0%
Shaqai Forde0%
F. Cavegn0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bobby Kamwa50%
Tommy Leigh50%
F. Cavegn50%
Ellis Harrison33%
Shaqai Forde25%
Tom James0%
R. Smallwood0%
B. Purrington0%
J. Aitchison0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Brad Young0%
C. Mola0%
Riley Harbottle0%
Colchester
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jaden Williams33%
Harry Anderson25%
P. Digby0%
K. Vincent-Young0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Vincent-Young25%
Ellis Iandolo25%
Rob Hunt25%
J. Tucker25%
Harry Anderson0%
P. Digby0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Vincent-Young25%
O. Thorn25%
Harry Anderson0%
P. Digby0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harry Anderson75%
M. Sesay33%
P. Digby0%
K. Vincent-Young0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Bristol Rvs's squad is €2m more valuable than Colchester's (€5m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Bristol Rvs and Colchester have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Bristol Rvs and Colchester have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Bristol Rvs and Colchester have a similar defence value (both €3m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale