Defensive solidity dominates the outlook as Bsk Bijelo Brdo looks to keep a tight, low-scoring game at home. Their average of 0.93 goals for and 0.43 goals against against similar opposition suggests a cautious approach, while Hrvace, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.67 conceded on the road, will likely struggle to breach the back-line. The model favours a home win, with a 57 % probability, followed by a 30 % chance of a draw and a 13 % chance of an away victory. The expected total of 1.9 goals points to a modest tally, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Bsk Bijelo Brdo, carrying a 19.3 % probability. The match is projected to be a 2-goal affair, the most probable total at 28 %. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.6 %), Under 5.5 (98.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (98.3 %), Home +2 handicap (96.9 %), Under 4.5 (95.4 %) and Home under 3.5 goals (94.7 %). The home side’s recent win and the away side’s five-match losing streak further reinforce the expectation of a tight, low-scoring affair.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bsk Bijelo Brdo win
56.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hrvace win
12.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
0.87
0.47
0.73
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.80
0.97
0.87
0.47
0.73
1.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hrvace
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.40
1.29
1.14
0.69
1.62
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.29
2.00
1.50
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.83
1.43
1.00
1.00
0.69
1.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.3%
Under 1.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.3%
Under 2.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
11.7%
Under 3.5
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
30.5%
No
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
20.0%
0-0
16.8%
2-0
14.2%
1-1
11.8%
2-1
7.2%
0-1
6.9%
3-0
6.3%
3-1
3.2%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo goals ↓
Hrvace goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
6.9%
2.0%
0.3%
0.0%
1
20%
12%
2.7%
0.5%
0.1%
2
14%
7.2%
1.8%
0.3%
0.0%
3
6.3%
3.2%
0.8%
0.1%
0.0%
4
2.1%
1.1%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bsk Bijelo Brdo goals (down), columns = Hrvace goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Vukovar
1.68
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.39
Segesta Sisak
1.38
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Jadran LP
1.14
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Kustosija
1.02
Mladost Ždralovi
0.51
Bsk Bijelo Brdo is 0.18 points better than Hrvace in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Vukovar
1.43
Sesvete
1.27
Dugopolje
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.18
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Jadran LP
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Kustosija
0.86
Mladost Ždralovi
0.43
Bsk Bijelo Brdo is 0.18 goals worse than Hrvace in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Vukovar
0.96
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Dugopolje
1.15
Opatija
1.15
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.17
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Orijent 1919
1.24
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Jadran LP
1.42
Hrvace
1.45
Kustosija
1.59
Mladost Ždralovi
3.18
Bsk Bijelo Brdo is 0.55 goals better than Hrvace in terms of goals conceded per game (0.91 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo or Draw
87.1%
Avg Implied -
57%
31%
13%
covers Bsk Bijelo Brdo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo or Hrvace
69.5%
Avg Implied -
57%
31%
13%
covers Bsk Bijelo Brdo + Hrvace
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hrvace
43.5%
Avg Implied -
57%
31%
13%
covers Draw + Hrvace
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 0.5
Over
73.9%
Under
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 1.5
Over
38.8%
Under
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 2.5
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 0.5
Over
39.8%
Under
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 1.5
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 2.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 3.5
Over
0.2%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bsk Bijelo Brdo, so a minus line means Bsk Bijelo Brdo give that many goals of a start and Hrvace receive them. At -1, Bsk Bijelo Brdo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bsk Bijelo Brdo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bsk Bijelo Brdo)
Bsk Bijelo Brdo -2
10.8%
Draw -2
17.7%
Hrvace +2
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Bsk Bijelo Brdo)
Bsk Bijelo Brdo -1
28.4%
Draw -1
28.1%
Hrvace +1
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Bsk Bijelo Brdo)
Bsk Bijelo Brdo +1
87.1%
Draw +1
9.9%
Hrvace -1
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Bsk Bijelo Brdo)
Bsk Bijelo Brdo +2
97.0%
Draw +2
2.5%
Hrvace -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.17
0.50
0.27
0.27
0.07
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.17
0.50
0.27
0.27
0.07
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hrvace
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.57
0.64
0.44
0.56
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.52
0.60
0.50
0.46
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.60
0.20
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.47
0.60
0.20
0.67
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hrvace
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.71
0.50
0.25
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.43
1.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.91
0.40
0.50
0.23
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
JL (9)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
DZU (2)
€1m
MŽ (4)
€0m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Hrvace have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (10)
€2m
VUK (6)
€1m
HRV (8)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
DZU (1)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
MŽ (4)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Hrvace have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
DZU (1)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
JL (1)
€0m
MŽ (0)
€0m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Hrvace have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
MŽ (0)
€0m
DZU (0)
€0m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Hrvace have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Croatia Zmijavci
Mladost Ždralovi
Jadran LP
Dugopolje
HNK Cibalia
Orijent 1919
Opatija
Segesta Sisak
Vukovar
Karlovac 1919
Sesvete
Dinamo Zagreb U21
Kustosija
Dubrava Zagreb