The model favours a home win for Bsk Bijelo Brdo, with a 59% chance, a 24% chance of a draw and a 17% chance of an Orijent 1919 victory. The expected total of 2.8 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.6% probability, reflecting the balanced nature of the matchup. Bsk Bijelo Brdo, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded, while Orijent 1919, on the road, averages 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with a 77.3% probability and Under 3.5 with a 70.1% probability. The recent form narrative shows Bsk Bijelo Brdo coming off a draw, whereas Orijent 1919 arrives on a win streak, hinting at a competitive but home-favoured encounter.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Bsk Bijelo Brdo, failed to deliver, as the match finished 0-0, a draw that surprised the model’s prediction of a home win with a 59% probability. The upset was even more striking given the home side’s recent form, coming off a draw in their last game, while Orijent 1919 entered with a win. The model’s other selections also missed the mark: the Over 1.5 goal pick, at 77.3%, fell short, whereas the Under 3.5, at 70.1%, proved accurate. In total, the final score of 0-0 matched the model’s most likely 2-goal outcome only in terms of goal count, but the result itself contradicted the predicted winner.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bsk Bijelo Brdo win✗ Miss
59.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 win✗ Miss
16.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.14
1.43
1.29
0.86
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.09
1.18
1.33
0.83
0.80
1.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
5.00
-
-
2.00
5.00
Clean sheet %
21% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orijent 1919
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.29
1.86
1.57
1.29
1.00
2.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.83
1.67
1.50
1.17
2.17
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
14% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-0
11.0%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.9%
0-0 ✓
7.4%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
6.1%
1-2
4.7%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo goals ↓
Orijent 1919 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
4.6%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
4.7%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
6.8%
6.1%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.2%
2.9%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bsk Bijelo Brdo goals (down), columns = Orijent 1919 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vukovar
1.91
Rudes
1.85
HNK Cibalia
1.64
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.50
Jarun
1.33
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.33
Croatia Zmijavci
1.30
Solin
1.30
Orijent 1919
1.30
Dubrava Zagreb
1.27
Dugopolje
1.24
Kustosija
1.06
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
0.76
Bsk Bijelo Brdo is 0.03 points better than Orijent 1919 in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vukovar
1.73
Rudes
1.61
Solin
1.42
Orijent 1919
1.36
Jarun
1.30
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.24
Dubrava Zagreb
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Croatia Zmijavci
1.12
Kustosija
1.06
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.00
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.00
Dugopolje
0.91
Bsk Bijelo Brdo is 0.12 goals worse than Orijent 1919 in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vukovar
0.76
HNK Cibalia
0.79
Rudes
0.82
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.00
Dugopolje
1.06
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.12
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Croatia Zmijavci
1.33
Orijent 1919
1.36
Kustosija
1.49
Solin
1.67
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.70
Jarun
1.73
Bsk Bijelo Brdo is 0.24 goals better than Orijent 1919 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.29
0.29
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.45
0.17
0.33
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
64% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orijent 1919
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.21
0.86
0.57
0.14
1.86
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
1.08
0.83
0.67
0.17
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
36% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.93
1.00
0.57
0.29
1.29
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.73
1.17
0.50
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
36% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orijent 1919
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
0.64
0.71
0.71
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.75
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (27)
€5m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (13)
€3m
VUK (6)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (3)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →