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Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Orijent 1919 Result & Analysis

Date: 19/11/2022
Time: 12:30
Final 0-0
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Vs
59%
24%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Orijent 1919
Orijent 1919
Croatia: First NL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The model favours a home win for Bsk Bijelo Brdo, with a 59% chance, a 24% chance of a draw and a 17% chance of an Orijent 1919 victory. The expected total of 2.8 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.6% probability, reflecting the balanced nature of the matchup. Bsk Bijelo Brdo, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded, while Orijent 1919, on the road, averages 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with a 77.3% probability and Under 3.5 with a 70.1% probability. The recent form narrative shows Bsk Bijelo Brdo coming off a draw, whereas Orijent 1919 arrives on a win streak, hinting at a competitive but home-favoured encounter.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Bsk Bijelo Brdo, failed to deliver, as the match finished 0-0, a draw that surprised the model’s prediction of a home win with a 59% probability. The upset was even more striking given the home side’s recent form, coming off a draw in their last game, while Orijent 1919 entered with a win. The model’s other selections also missed the mark: the Over 1.5 goal pick, at 77.3%, fell short, whereas the Under 3.5, at 70.1%, proved accurate. In total, the final score of 0-0 matched the model’s most likely 2-goal outcome only in terms of goal count, but the result itself contradicted the predicted winner.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bsk Bijelo Brdo win✗ Miss
59.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 win✗ Miss
16.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D23L21W00D12L40W25L01L01L11DH·DUB10/09A·JAR18/09H·SOL24/09H·HNK01/10A·DUG10/10H·CRO16/10A·KUS22/10A·HRV28/10H·RUD05/11A·VUK12/11
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.141.431.290.861.002.00
vs Stronger (2)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (11)1.091.181.330.830.801.60
vs Weaker (1)2.005.00--2.005.00
Clean sheet %21% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Orijent 1919Orijent 1919

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L21W22D10W21W12L04L12L05L43WA·HNK10/09H·DUG17/09A·CRO25/09H·KUS30/09A·HRV07/10H·RUD15/10A·VUK22/10A·SOL29/10A·DUB05/11H·JAR12/11
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.291.861.571.291.002.43
vs Stronger (1)0.004.00--0.004.00
vs Similar (12)1.421.831.671.501.172.17
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %14% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-0
11.0%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.9%
0-0 ✓
7.4%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
6.1%
1-2
4.7%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo goals ↓
Orijent 1919 goals →
01234
07.4%4.6%2.5%0.8%0.2%
111%12%4.7%1.4%0.3%
211%9.9%4.4%1.3%0.3%
36.8%6.1%2.7%0.8%0.2%
43.2%2.9%1.3%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bsk Bijelo Brdo goals (down), columns = Orijent 1919 goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vukovar
1.91
Rudes
1.85
HNK Cibalia
1.64
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.50
Jarun
1.33
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.33
Croatia Zmijavci
1.30
Solin
1.30
Orijent 1919
1.30
Dubrava Zagreb
1.27
Dugopolje
1.24
Kustosija
1.06
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
0.76
Bsk Bijelo Brdo is 0.03 points better than Orijent 1919 in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.30).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vukovar
1.73
Rudes
1.61
Solin
1.42
Orijent 1919
1.36
Jarun
1.30
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.24
Dubrava Zagreb
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Croatia Zmijavci
1.12
Kustosija
1.06
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.00
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.00
Dugopolje
0.91
Bsk Bijelo Brdo is 0.12 goals worse than Orijent 1919 in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.36).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vukovar
0.76
HNK Cibalia
0.79
Rudes
0.82
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.00
Dugopolje
1.06
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.12
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Croatia Zmijavci
1.33
Orijent 1919
1.36
Kustosija
1.49
Solin
1.67
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.70
Jarun
1.73
Bsk Bijelo Brdo is 0.24 goals better than Orijent 1919 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.36).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D00D00D02L10W22D00D01L10WH·DUB10/09A·JAR18/09H·SOL24/09H·HNK01/10A·DUG10/10H·CRO16/10A·KUS22/10A·HRV28/10H·RUD05/11A·VUK12/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.500.290.290.710.71
vs Stronger (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
vs Similar (11)0.270.450.170.330.400.60
vs Weaker (1)2.002.00--2.002.00
Clean sheet %64% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Orijent 1919Orijent 1919

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W11D10W01L10W04L01L03L03LA·HNK10/09H·DUG17/09A·CRO25/09H·KUS30/09A·HRV07/10H·RUD15/10A·VUK22/10A·SOL29/10A·DUB05/11H·JAR12/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.210.860.570.141.86
vs Stronger (1)0.004.00--0.004.00
vs Similar (12)0.501.080.830.670.171.50
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %36% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D12L21W00D10W30W03L01L00D01LH·DUB10/09A·JAR18/09H·SOL24/09H·HNK01/10A·DUG10/10H·CRO16/10A·KUS22/10A·HRV28/10H·RUD05/11A·VUK12/11
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.640.931.000.570.291.29
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (11)0.820.731.170.500.401.00
vs Weaker (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
Clean sheet %36% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Orijent 1919Orijent 1919

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D11D00D20W02L00D11D02L40WA·HNK10/09H·DUG17/09A·CRO25/09H·KUS30/09A·HRV07/10H·RUD15/10A·VUK22/10A·SOL29/10A·DUB05/11H·JAR12/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.790.640.710.710.860.57
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (12)0.920.750.830.831.000.67
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.3%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.570.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (27)
€5m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (13)
€3m
VUK (6)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (3)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
BBB wins
1
Draws
0
O1 wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Orijent 1919 · H/A from BBB
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/22AOrijent 1919 Vs BBB0-0

Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/11/22AVukovar Vs BBB1-1
05/11/22HBBB Vs Rudes0-1
28/10/22AHrvatski Dragovoljac Vs BBB1-0
22/10/22AKustosija Vs BBB5-2
16/10/22HBBB Vs Croatia Zmijavci4-0
10/10/22ADugopolje Vs BBB2-1
01/10/22HBBB Vs HNK Cibalia0-0
24/09/22HBBB Vs Solin2-1
18/09/22AJarun Vs BBB3-2
10/09/22HBBB Vs Dubrava Zagreb1-1

Orijent 1919Orijent 1919

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/11/22HO1 Vs Jarun4-3
05/11/22ADubrava Zagreb Vs O15-0
29/10/22ASolin Vs O12-1
22/10/22AVukovar Vs O14-0
15/10/22HO1 Vs Rudes1-2
07/10/22AHrvatski Dragovoljac Vs O11-2
30/09/22HO1 Vs Kustosija1-0
25/09/22ACroatia Zmijavci Vs O12-2
17/09/22HO1 Vs Dugopolje2-1
10/09/22AHNK Cibalia Vs O11-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLD0.79
HomeDWDWL1.29
AwayLLLLD0.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%29%0%
AVG goals2.572.143.00
Over 1.5 %71%71%71%
Over 2.5 %50%43%57%
Over 3.5 %21%14%29%
Scored1.141.291.00
Conceded1.430.862.00
BTTS64%57%71%
Clean Sheet21%29%14%
Corners---
Cards---
Orijent 1919
Orijent 1919
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.21
HomeDWWLW1.71
AwayDWLLL0.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%43%14%
AVG goals3.142.863.43
Over 1.5 %79%71%86%
Over 2.5 %71%57%86%
Over 3.5 %43%29%57%
Scored1.291.571.00
Conceded1.861.292.43
BTTS64%71%57%
Clean Sheet14%29%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VukovarVukovar3363
52%
1.9
5725+32
2.5
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.70.8
-
2RudesRudes3361
55%
1.8
5327+26
2.4
70%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3111.60.8
-
3HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia3354
39%
1.6
3726+11
1.9
58%
30%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.10.8
-
4Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo3344
36%
1.3
4137+4
2.4
67%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.1
-
5JarunJarun3344
39%
1.3
4357-14
3.0
73%
67%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
6Orijent 1919Orijent 19193343
30%
1.3
4545+0
2.7
73%
55%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.4
-
7Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci3343
36%
1.3
3744-7
2.5
79%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.3
-
8SolinSolin3343
36%
1.3
4755-8
3.1
79%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
9Dubrava ZagrebDubrava Zagreb3342
33%
1.3
3839-1
2.3
67%
30%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.2
-
10DugopoljeDugopolje3341
27%
1.2
3035-5
2.0
70%
24%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.1
-
11KustosijaKustosija3537
29%
1.1
3752-15
2.5
69%
46%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.5
-
12Hrvatski DragovoljacHrvatski Dragovoljac3325
15%
0.8
3356-23
2.7
76%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
13Zrinski JurjevacZrinski Jurjevac23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
14Inter ZaprešićInter Zaprešić00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
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Croatia: First NL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →

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