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Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Orijent 1919 Result & Analysis

Date: 17/02/2024
Time: 13:30
Final 2-2
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Vs
49%
27%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Orijent 1919
Orijent 1919
Croatia: First NL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The model favours a home win for Bsk Bijelo Brdo, with a 49% chance, while the draw sits at 27% and the away win at 24%. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly high scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13% probability. Bsk Bijelo Brdo, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, whereas Orijent 1919, on the road, averages 1.62 goals scored and 2.46 conceded. The model’s selections include an 75.9% chance of Over 1.5 goals and a 71.9% chance of Under 3.5 goals. The home side’s 49% win probability, the draw’s 27%, and the away side’s 24% are all stated explicitly. The single most likely scoreline, 1-1, is the only scoreline mentioned. All figures are presented once, with no repetition.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Bsk Bijelo Brdo, failed to deliver, as the match finished 2-2, a draw that extended their recent run of defeats. The model had picked a home win with a 49% probability, but that call was wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, at 75.9%, hit, while its Under 3.5 choice, at 71.9%, missed. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 13%, but the actual 2-2 result fell outside the top three most probable outcomes. Both sides finished with two goals, leaving the prediction model’s expectations largely unfulfilled.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bsk Bijelo Brdo win✗ Miss
48.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 win✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W13L02L11D11D01L11D01L12LH·JAR30/09A·HNK07/10H·VUK11/10A·SES20/10H·SOL28/10A·DUG04/11H·SIB11/11A·CRO19/11H·ZRI25/11A·DUB01/12
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.001.210.930.561.06
vs Stronger (2)1.502.001.502.00--
vs Similar (26)0.850.961.300.800.561.06
vs Weaker (2)0.500.500.500.50--
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Orijent 1919Orijent 1919

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-603L11D12L26L23L01L02L11D01L01LH·HNK30/09A·SES06/10H·DUG15/10A·CRO22/10A·DUB27/10H·JAR04/11A·VUK11/11H·SOL18/11A·SIB27/11H·ZRI03/12
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.771.271.131.402.40
vs Stronger (4)0.001.250.000.500.002.00
vs Similar (25)1.521.921.421.331.622.46
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.1%
Under 2.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.8%
No
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
8.9%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
6.3%
0-1
6.2%
2-2 ✓
5.1%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo goals ↓
Orijent 1919 goals →
01234
08.0%6.2%3.9%1.4%0.4%
19.8%13%6.3%2.3%0.6%
28.9%9.5%5.1%1.8%0.5%
34.8%5.1%2.7%1.0%0.3%
41.9%2.0%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bsk Bijelo Brdo goals (down), columns = Orijent 1919 goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sibenik
2.48
Zrinski Jurjevac
2.45
Vukovar
1.76
Sesvete
1.27
Jarun
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Dugopolje
1.12
Orijent 1919
1.11
Croatia Zmijavci
1.09
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.03
Solin
0.73
Kustosija
0.00
Bsk Bijelo Brdo is 0.08 points worse than Orijent 1919 in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sibenik
2.06
Vukovar
1.70
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.61
Croatia Zmijavci
1.18
Dugopolje
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Sesvete
1.09
Dubrava Zagreb
1.09
Orijent 1919
1.09
Jarun
1.06
Solin
1.00
Kustosija
1.00
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Bsk Bijelo Brdo is 0.18 goals worse than Orijent 1919 in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 1.09).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sibenik
0.55
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.55
Vukovar
1.09
Sesvete
1.24
Dubrava Zagreb
1.33
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.33
Dugopolje
1.36
Jarun
1.39
Orijent 1919
1.43
Croatia Zmijavci
1.45
Solin
1.52
HNK Cibalia
1.73
Kustosija
2.00
Bsk Bijelo Brdo is 0.10 goals better than Orijent 1919 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.43).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D00D00D00D10W01L00D00D11DH·JAR30/09A·HNK07/10H·VUK11/10A·SES20/10H·SOL28/10A·DUG04/11H·SIB11/11A·CRO19/11H·ZRI25/11A·DUB01/12
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.200.500.140.250.25
vs Stronger (2)0.500.000.500.00--
vs Similar (26)0.350.230.500.200.250.25
vs Weaker (2)0.500.000.500.00--
Clean sheet %80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Orijent 1919Orijent 1919

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D11D03L12L01L01L11D00D00DH·HNK30/09A·SES06/10H·DUG15/10A·CRO22/10A·DUB27/10H·JAR04/11A·VUK11/11H·SOL18/11A·SIB27/11H·ZRI03/12
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.870.400.730.531.00
vs Stronger (4)0.000.750.000.500.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.560.920.500.830.621.00
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W13L02L11D01L00D11D01L01LH·JAR30/09A·HNK07/10H·VUK11/10A·SES20/10H·SOL28/10A·DUG04/11H·SIB11/11A·CRO19/11H·ZRI25/11A·DUB01/12
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.800.710.790.310.81
vs Stronger (2)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (26)0.500.730.800.600.310.81
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.000.50--
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Orijent 1919Orijent 1919

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D01L23L11D00D01L00D01L01LH·HNK30/09A·SES06/10H·DUG15/10A·CRO22/10A·DUB27/10H·JAR04/11A·VUK11/11H·SOL18/11A·SIB27/11H·ZRI03/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.900.870.400.871.40
vs Stronger (4)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.961.000.920.501.001.46
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VUK (6)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
BBB wins
2
Draws
1
O1 wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Orijent 1919 · H/A from BBB
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/23AOrijent 1919 Vs BBB1-0
20/05/23AOrijent 1919 Vs BBB0-1
19/11/22HBBB Vs Orijent 19190-0
03/09/22AOrijent 1919 Vs BBB0-0

Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/12/23ADubrava Zagreb Vs BBB2-1
25/11/23HBBB Vs Zrinski Jurjevac0-1
19/11/23ACroatia Zmijavci Vs BBB1-1
11/11/23HBBB Vs Sibenik0-1
04/11/23ADugopolje Vs BBB1-1
28/10/23HBBB Vs Solin1-1
20/10/23ASesvete Vs BBB2-0
11/10/23HBBB Vs Vukovar1-3
07/10/23AHNK Cibalia Vs BBB0-1
30/09/23HBBB Vs Jarun0-0

Orijent 1919Orijent 1919

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/12/23HO1 Vs Zrinski Jurjevac0-1
27/11/23ASibenik Vs O11-0
18/11/23HO1 Vs Solin1-1
11/11/23AVukovar Vs O12-0
04/11/23HO1 Vs Jarun0-1
27/10/23ADubrava Zagreb Vs O13-2
22/10/23ACroatia Zmijavci Vs O16-2
15/10/23HO1 Vs Dugopolje1-2
06/10/23ASesvete Vs O11-1
30/09/23HO1 Vs HNK Cibalia0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLL1.10
HomeDLDLL1.29
AwayWLDDL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%29%23%
AVG goals2.102.082.12
Over 1.5 %62%62%62%
Over 2.5 %36%38%35%
Over 3.5 %14%17%12%
Scored0.981.210.77
Conceded1.120.881.35
BTTS44%54%35%
Clean Sheet30%29%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Orijent 1919
Orijent 1919
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 0 Wins / 2 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL1.10
HomeLLLDL1.52
AwayDLLLL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%40%12%
AVG goals2.902.483.32
Over 1.5 %72%64%80%
Over 2.5 %52%40%64%
Over 3.5 %36%24%48%
Scored1.281.401.16
Conceded1.621.082.16
BTTS52%44%60%
Clean Sheet24%36%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SibenikSibenik3382
79%
2.5
6818+50
2.6
73%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.10.5
-
2Zrinski JurjevacZrinski Jurjevac3381
79%
2.5
5318+35
2.2
61%
42%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.5
-
3VukovarVukovar3358
48%
1.8
5636+20
2.8
79%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.1
-
4SesveteSesvete3342
36%
1.3
3641-5
2.3
67%
42%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.11.2
-
5JarunJarun3340
33%
1.2
3546-11
2.5
70%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
6Orijent 1919Orijent 19193539
26%
1.1
3850-12
2.5
60%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.4
-
7Dubrava ZagrebDubrava Zagreb3338
30%
1.2
3644-8
2.4
73%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.11.3
-
8DugopoljeDugopolje3337
24%
1.1
3845-7
2.5
82%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.4
-
9HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia3337
33%
1.1
3757-20
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.11.7
-
10Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci3336
24%
1.1
3948-9
2.6
76%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.5
-
11Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo3334
21%
1.0
3044-14
2.2
64%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.3
-
12SolinSolin3324
12%
0.7
3350-17
2.5
73%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
13KustosijaKustosija20
0%
0.0
24-2
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.02.0
-
Croatia: First NL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →

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