Bsk Bijelo Brdo are tipped to win this encounter, the model’s pick reflecting a 44% chance of a home victory against Orijent 1919’s 28% draw and 28% away win probabilities. The expected total of 2.7 goals suggests a moderately open game, with the most likely total of two goals hitting 26%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is a 1-1 draw, a 13.3% chance that the match will finish level. Bsk’s home form shows an average of 1.14 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Orijent’s away record averages 1.29 goals scored and 2.0 conceded to the same tier. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 76% and Under 3.5 goals at 71.8%. The match is expected to be a tight contest, with Bsk’s slight edge and the likelihood of a low-scoring, balanced finish.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Bsk Bijelo Brdo, failed to deliver as the game finished 0-0, a draw that snapped their recent draw-ending run. The model had picked a home win with a 44% probability, but this call proved wrong. The model’s other selections were mixed: Over 1.5 goals, with a 76% chance, missed, while Under 3.5 goals, at 71.8%, hit. The match saw neither side score, leaving the expected total of 2.7 unfulfilled and the most likely 2-goal outcome unachieved. Both teams ended the match level, a result that surprised the model’s initial prediction.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bsk Bijelo Brdo win✗ Miss
44.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 win✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.33
1.13
1.13
0.87
1.53
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
2.67
1.00
3.00
2.00
2.50
vs Similar (27)
0.93
1.19
1.14
1.00
0.69
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orijent 1919
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.60
1.07
1.20
1.20
2.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.26
1.67
1.23
1.31
1.29
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.0%
Under 1.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.2%
Under 2.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.2%
Under 3.5
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
9.2%
0-0 ✓
8.0%
2-0
7.9%
1-2
7.0%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
5.3%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo goals ↓
Orijent 1919 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
6.8%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
1
9.2%
13%
7.0%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.9%
9.2%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
3
4.0%
4.6%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.5%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bsk Bijelo Brdo goals (down), columns = Orijent 1919 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sibenik
2.48
Zrinski Jurjevac
2.45
Vukovar
1.76
Sesvete
1.27
Jarun
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Dugopolje
1.12
Orijent 1919
1.11
Croatia Zmijavci
1.09
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.03
Solin
0.73
Kustosija
0.00
Bsk Bijelo Brdo is 0.08 points worse than Orijent 1919 in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sibenik
2.06
Vukovar
1.70
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.61
Croatia Zmijavci
1.18
Dugopolje
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Sesvete
1.09
Dubrava Zagreb
1.09
Orijent 1919
1.09
Jarun
1.06
Kustosija
1.00
Solin
1.00
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Bsk Bijelo Brdo is 0.18 goals worse than Orijent 1919 in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sibenik
0.55
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.55
Vukovar
1.09
Sesvete
1.24
Dubrava Zagreb
1.33
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.33
Dugopolje
1.36
Jarun
1.39
Orijent 1919
1.43
Croatia Zmijavci
1.45
Solin
1.52
HNK Cibalia
1.73
Kustosija
2.00
Bsk Bijelo Brdo is 0.10 goals better than Orijent 1919 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.43
0.40
0.33
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.41
0.41
0.43
0.36
0.38
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orijent 1919
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.83
0.60
0.80
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.85
0.69
0.85
0.50
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.73
0.80
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.78
0.71
0.64
0.31
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orijent 1919
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.47
0.40
0.73
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.81
0.54
0.46
0.79
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VUK (6)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Orijent 1919 have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →