The match between Burnley and Middlesbrough is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.5% chance. Burnley, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Middlesbrough on the road averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 36% for a Burnley win, 28% for a draw, and 35% for a Middlesbrough win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (97.9% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.9% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.7% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.6% with a 5% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (95.3% with a 1% edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (95.1% with a 3% edge). Burnley come off a defeat to Norwich, while Middlesbrough are on a two-game winning streak.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a Home win, fell short as Burnley and Middlesbrough settled for a 1-1 draw, extending each side’s recent streak of mixed results. The model’s call was incorrect, its probability at 37%. Every suggested selection proved accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3%, Under 6.5 at 97.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.7%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.4%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 94.9%. The match delivered on the model’s low-goal predictions, confirming a tight, evenly balanced contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Burnley win✗ Miss
36.8%
Avg Implied 34.0% · @ 2.77
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.92
Dafabet
2.85
Superbet
2.82
1xBet
2.81
Betano
2.80
Draw✓ Hit
28.3%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.52
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.70
Betano
3.65
Pinnacle
3.63
Dafabet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Middlesbrough win✗ Miss
34.9%
Avg Implied 39.3% · @ 2.39
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.48
Dafabet
2.43
Superbet
2.42
Pinnacle
2.41
William Hil
2.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Burnley
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.93
1.38
1.75
0.79
2.14
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.43
1.50
1.75
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.15
2.25
1.40
1.80
0.90
2.70
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Middlesbrough) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Middlesbrough
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.03
1.60
0.60
1.80
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.82
1.18
1.91
0.64
1.73
1.73
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.62
0.75
0.50
2.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.4%
@ 1.20-2.1%
Under 1.5
23.6%
@ 4.35+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.82
Superbet
4.70
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.7%
@ 1.65-6.5%
Under 2.5
49.3%
@ 2.20+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
SBO
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.32
Superbet
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.21
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.6%
@ 2.59-7.6%
Under 3.5
71.4%
@ 1.47+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.70
10Bet
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Under
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.47
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.1%
@ 1.52-5.0%
No
43.9%
@ 2.39+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
No
Betfair
2.55
Superbet
2.42
BetVictor
2.40
William Hil
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.5%@ 6.54+6.6%
2-1
8.4%@ 9.42+3.6%
1-2
8.1%@ 8.66+2.9%
1-0
8.0%@ 10.49+3.7%
0-0
7.9%@ 12.72+4.4%
0-1
7.7%@ 9.68+3.0%
2-0
6.3%@ 14.99+3.3%
0-2
5.9%@ 12.70+2.4%
Burnley goals ↓
Middlesbrough goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
7.7%
5.9%
2.6%
0.9%
1
8.0%
13%
8.1%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.3%
8.4%
5.6%
2.5%
0.8%
3
2.9%
3.8%
2.6%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burnley goals (down), columns = Middlesbrough goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Burnley is 0.05 points better than Middlesbrough in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Burnley is 0.14 goals better than Middlesbrough in terms of goals scored per game (1.63 vs 1.49).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Burnley is 0.03 goals worse than Middlesbrough in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Burnley
For 4.9 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.3 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Middlesbrough
For 6.4 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burnley
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.4
9.8
3.2
2.7
3.7
20.0
19.7
20.4
vs Stronger (14)
9.9
9.6
10.1
2.9
2.1
3.7
20.4
20.6
20.1
vs Similar (33)
9.2
9.4
9.0
3.2
2.7
3.9
19.6
18.7
20.8
vs Weaker (3)
12.0
8.5
19.0
3.7
4.5
2.0
22.3
25.5
16.0
% over line
48%
48%
48%
42%
30%
57%
38%
30%
48%
% under line
52%
52%
52%
58%
70%
43%
62%
70%
52%
This opponent (Middlesbrough) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Middlesbrough
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
12.0
9.8
3.5
3.0
4.1
21.6
21.5
21.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
10.9
12.2
9.4
3.6
3.0
4.3
21.8
21.2
22.3
vs Weaker (13)
11.0
11.3
10.7
3.2
2.8
3.6
21.0
22.3
19.9
% over line
60%
76%
44%
52%
44%
60%
46%
40%
52%
% under line
40%
24%
56%
48%
56%
40%
54%
60%
48%
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
Southampton
11.1
West Ham
11.1
Millwall
11.0
Middlesbrough
10.9
Cardiff
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Blackburn
10.8
Bolton
10.5
Preston
10.5
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Derby
10.0
Bristol City
10.0
QPR
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Charlton
9.7
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.4
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Portsmouth
3.8
Southampton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
QPR
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.4
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.9
Swansea
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
West Ham
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Bolton
21.9
Birmingham
21.7
Middlesbrough
21.6
Charlton
21.5
Norwich
21.5
Bristol City
21.4
Sheffield United
21.4
Stoke
21.0
Watford
20.9
West Brom
20.8
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.6
Blackburn
20.5
Millwall
20.4
Preston
20.4
Burnley
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.7%
@ 1.73+0.9%
Under 9.5
45.3%
@ 2.01-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
Betfair
1.75
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.8%
@ 1.59-11.4%
Under 3.5
53.2%
@ 2.21+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
Under
Pinnacle
2.36
Superbet
2.17
Unibet
2.16
Betano
2.15
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
44.6%
@ 1.90-4.3%
Under 21.5
55.4%
@ 1.82+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
Under
Superbet
1.82
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Burnley or Draw✓ Hit
65.1%
Avg Implied 60.3% · @ 1.55
Edge
+4.8%
37%
28%
35%
covers Burnley + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Burnley or Middlesbrough✗ Miss
71.7%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.9%
37%
28%
35%
covers Burnley + Middlesbrough
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Middlesbrough✓ Hit
63.2%
Avg Implied 66.0% · @ 1.42
Edge
-2.9%
37%
28%
35%
covers Draw + Middlesbrough
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.45
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Superbet
1.43
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Burnley over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.6%
@ 1.24-0.7%
Under
25.4%
@ 3.76+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.00
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.80
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Burnley over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
39.8%
@ 2.20-2.6%
Under
60.2%
@ 1.62+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.29
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.66
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Burnley over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.0%
@ 4.84-3.2%
Under
84.0%
@ 1.15+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.90
BetVictor
4.80
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Burnley over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 11.08-3.5%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.04+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Middlesbrough over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.6%
@ 1.19-4.3%
Under
26.4%
@ 4.20+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.80
Pinnacle
4.56
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Middlesbrough over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.4%
@ 2.00-8.4%
Under
61.6%
@ 1.75+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.08
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Superbet
1.76
Middlesbrough over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.0%
@ 4.21-7.1%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.20+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.33
10Bet
4.33
BetVictor
4.10
Under
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Middlesbrough over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 9.24-5.5%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.04+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.10
Marathonbet
9.10
Superbet
9.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Burnley, so a minus line means Burnley give that many goals of a start and Middlesbrough receive them. At -1, Burnley must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Burnley win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Burnley)Actual: Middlesbrough
Burnley -2
6.3%
@ 10.92-1.8%
Draw -2
11.1%
@ 7.10-1.4%
Middlesbrough +2
82.5%
@ 1.12+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
10Bet
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (Burnley)Actual: Middlesbrough
Burnley -1
17.5%
@ 5.26+0.4%
Draw -1
19.3%
@ 4.49-0.6%
Middlesbrough +1
63.2%
@ 1.42+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
Unibet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.20
Away
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Handicap +1 (Burnley)Actual: Burnley
Burnley +1
65.1%
@ 1.54+6.8%
Draw +1
18.7%
@ 4.17-2.7%
Middlesbrough -1
16.2%
@ 4.42-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Away
Unibet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.25
Handicap +2 (Burnley)Actual: Burnley
Burnley +2
83.8%
@ 1.17+6.6%
Draw +2
10.5%
@ 6.72-2.9%
Middlesbrough -2
5.7%
@ 9.53-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Away
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Bet365
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.70
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Burnley
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.62
1.00
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.75
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.60
1.15
0.60
1.20
0.60
1.10
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Middlesbrough) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Middlesbrough
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.60
0.13
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.41
0.73
0.09
1.00
0.73
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.12
0.25
0.25
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.9%
@ 1.30-1.9%
Under 0.5
30.1%
@ 3.31+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.4%
@ 2.42-4.2%
Under 1.5
65.6%
@ 1.52+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Unibet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.46
William Hil
2.45
Under
Superbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
BetVictor
1.53
SBO
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.8%
@ 5.55-4.9%
Under 2.5
88.2%
@ 1.11+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Betano
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Under
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burnley over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.9%
@ 1.98+0.9%
Under
52.1%
@ 1.76-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.01
Unibet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.76
Unibet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
Burnley over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.0%
@ 5.93+0.4%
Under
84.0%
@ 1.09-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.30
Marathonbet
6.25
Unibet
5.80
Betano
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Burnley over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 15.38-2.8%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Middlesbrough over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.9%
@ 1.87-5.0%
Under
55.1%
@ 1.86+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.93
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
10Bet
1.90
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Middlesbrough over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 5.36-8.0%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.12+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.75
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Betano
5.30
Superbet
5.15
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Middlesbrough over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 13.62-5.3%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Burnley
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.75
0.75
0.36
1.14
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.57
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.55
1.10
0.80
0.60
0.30
1.60
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Middlesbrough) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Middlesbrough
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
1.00
0.47
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.77
1.18
0.55
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.25
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.6%
@ 1.17+0.2%
Under 0.5
20.4%
@ 4.50-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Under
1xBet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
47.0%
@ 1.85-3.3%
Under 1.5
53.0%
@ 1.88+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.88
Unibet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
William Hil
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.6%
@ 3.64-8.0%
Under 2.5
82.4%
@ 1.25+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.70
William Hil
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Under
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burnley over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
60.9%
@ 1.67+5.3%
Under
39.1%
@ 2.08-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Under
1xBet
2.10
Betano
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
Burnley over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.0%
@ 4.25-1.7%
Under
80.0%
@ 1.18+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.25
1xBet
4.20
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Burnley over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 10.75-4.4%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.03+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Middlesbrough over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.9%
@ 1.61-11.7%
Under
54.1%
@ 2.19+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.65
Superbet
1.60
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Under
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.22
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.08
Middlesbrough over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 3.83-11.0%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.22+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.74
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Middlesbrough over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 9.25-7.0%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.04+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.9%
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.03
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.7%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.11
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.9%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
+11.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.3%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.17
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.5%
1.28
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.27
-
-
-
+14.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.0%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.0%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.0%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.8%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.4%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.4%
1.20
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.6%
1.24
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.6%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
72.1%
1.59
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
+13.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.7%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
-1.9%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.4%
1.47
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.47
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Burnley
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zian Flemming50%
Josh Laurent20%
Ugo Raghouber17%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Anel Ahmedhodžić0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Marcus Edwards0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Zian Flemming25%
Oliver Sonne25%
Josh Laurent20%
Marcus Edwards20%
Hannibal Mejbri17%
Ugo Raghouber17%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Anel Ahmedhodžić0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Armando Broja0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Max Alleyne25%
Marcus Edwards20%
Jacob Bruun Larsen17%
Zeki Amdouni17%
Kyle Walker0%
Anel Ahmedhodžić0%
Connor Roberts0%
Josh Laurent0%
Zian Flemming0%
Mike Trésor0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Ugo Raghouber0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zian Flemming75%
Josh Laurent20%
Aaron Ramsey20%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Anel Ahmedhodžić0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Marcus Edwards0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Ugo Raghouber0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Middlesbrough
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Will Lankshear67%
Jeremy Sarmiento40%
Alfie Jones25%
Aidan Morris25%
Kyle Joseph17%
Neto Borges0%
Riley McGree0%
Callum Brittain0%
Luke Ayling0%
Morgan Whittaker0%
Adilson Malanda0%
Myles Peart-Harris0%
Sebastian Berhalter0%
Radek Vitek0%
Leo Castledine0%
Maximilian Arfsten0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Will Lankshear50%
Alfie Jones25%
Myles Peart-Harris25%
Neto Borges17%
Riley McGree0%
Callum Brittain0%
Luke Ayling0%
Morgan Whittaker0%
Adilson Malanda0%
Sebastian Berhalter0%
Aidan Morris0%
Jeremy Sarmiento0%
Kyle Joseph0%
Radek Vitek0%
Leo Castledine0%
Maximilian Arfsten0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sebastian Berhalter33%
Riley McGree25%
Morgan Whittaker20%
Jeremy Sarmiento20%
Luke Ayling17%
Neto Borges0%
Callum Brittain0%
Alfie Jones0%
Adilson Malanda0%
Myles Peart-Harris0%
Aidan Morris0%
Kyle Joseph0%
Radek Vitek0%
Leo Castledine0%
Maximilian Arfsten0%
Will Lankshear0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Morgan Whittaker40%
Will Lankshear33%
Leo Castledine20%
Sebastian Berhalter17%
Kyle Joseph17%
Neto Borges0%
Riley McGree0%
Callum Brittain0%
Alfie Jones0%
Luke Ayling0%
Adilson Malanda0%
Myles Peart-Harris0%
Aidan Morris0%
Jeremy Sarmiento0%
Radek Vitek0%
Maximilian Arfsten0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Burnley's squad is €27m less valuable than Middlesbrough's (€115m vs €142m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Burnley's attack is €4m less valuable than Middlesbrough's (€70m vs €74m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Burnley's midfield is €18m less valuable than Middlesbrough's (€8m vs €27m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Burnley's defence is €5m less valuable than Middlesbrough's (€37m vs €41m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Preston