This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.23
1.44
2.06
1.21
2.43
vs Stronger (14)
1.21
2.71
1.14
2.71
1.29
2.71
vs Similar (13)
1.38
1.85
1.62
1.62
1.00
2.20
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.67
2.00
1.00
1.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Cagliari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
89.8%
Under 1.5
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
72.7%
@ 1.54+11.1%
Under 2.5
27.3%
@ 2.47-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.1%
Under 3.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.7%
No
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.1%
1-1
8.2%
3-1
7.5%
2-0
6.9%
2-2
6.0%
3-0
5.7%
3-2
4.9%
1-2
4.9%
Cagliari goals ↓
Lecce goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.0%
2.3%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
1
4.9%
8.2%
4.9%
2.2%
0.7%
2
6.9%
9.1%
6.0%
2.7%
0.9%
3
5.7%
7.5%
4.9%
2.2%
0.7%
4
3.5%
4.6%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cagliari goals (down), columns = Lecce goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Juventus
2.18
Inter
2.16
Atalanta
2.05
Lazio
2.05
AS Roma
1.84
AC Milan
1.74
Napoli
1.63
Sassuolo
1.34
Hellas Verona
1.29
Fiorentina
1.29
Parma
1.29
Bologna
1.24
Cagliari
1.18
Udinese
1.18
Sampdoria
1.11
Torino
1.05
Genoa
1.03
Lecce
0.92
Brescia
0.66
Spal
0.53
Cagliari is 0.26 points better than Lecce in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 0.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atalanta
2.58
Inter
2.13
Lazio
2.08
AS Roma
2.03
Juventus
2.00
Sassuolo
1.82
AC Milan
1.66
Napoli
1.61
Parma
1.47
Bologna
1.37
Lecce
1.37
Cagliari
1.37
Fiorentina
1.34
Sampdoria
1.26
Hellas Verona
1.24
Genoa
1.24
Torino
1.21
Udinese
0.97
Brescia
0.92
Spal
0.71
Cagliari and Lecce are level in goals scored per game (both 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter
0.95
Lazio
1.11
Juventus
1.13
AC Milan
1.21
Atalanta
1.26
Fiorentina
1.26
Napoli
1.32
AS Roma
1.34
Hellas Verona
1.34
Udinese
1.34
Cagliari
1.47
Parma
1.50
Sassuolo
1.66
Sampdoria
1.71
Bologna
1.71
Torino
1.79
Genoa
1.92
Spal
2.03
Brescia
2.08
Lecce
2.24
Cagliari is 0.76 goals better than Lecce in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 2.24).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cagliari
For 4.5 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 13.6 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lecce
For 4.4 · Against 7.7 · Total 12.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 14.9 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cagliari
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.4
10.4
5.3
5.0
5.5
27.3
27.2
27.5
vs Stronger (18)
8.7
8.0
9.6
5.1
5.9
4.1
24.4
25.3
23.2
vs Similar (26)
10.3
9.5
11.1
4.8
3.8
5.7
29.4
29.2
29.5
vs Weaker (6)
11.7
13.7
9.7
7.5
6.7
8.3
27.3
25.0
29.7
% over line
52%
48%
56%
76%
80%
72%
86%
84%
88%
% under line
48%
52%
44%
24%
20%
28%
14%
16%
12%
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecce
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
11.4
11.1
5.2
5.4
4.9
27.2
27.0
27.3
vs Stronger (15)
13.3
14.0
12.6
4.4
4.9
4.0
22.7
21.7
23.6
vs Similar (19)
10.8
11.6
10.0
5.7
5.5
5.9
28.9
30.1
27.7
vs Weaker (16)
9.9
9.2
10.7
5.2
5.7
4.7
29.2
27.8
31.1
% over line
70%
58%
83%
74%
81%
67%
80%
69%
92%
% under line
30%
42%
17%
26%
19%
33%
20%
31%
8%
This opponent (Cagliari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AS Roma
11.7
Bologna
11.5
Torino
11.4
Udinese
11.4
Lecce
11.3
Juventus
11.2
Sassuolo
11.1
Inter
11.0
Fiorentina
10.9
Spal
10.9
Brescia
10.7
AC Milan
10.6
Sampdoria
10.6
Parma
10.5
Napoli
10.5
Hellas Verona
10.5
Lazio
10.0
Atalanta
10.0
Cagliari
9.9
Genoa
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bologna
6.2
Torino
6.1
Hellas Verona
5.9
Genoa
5.6
Spal
5.6
Sampdoria
5.6
AS Roma
5.5
Brescia
5.5
Fiorentina
5.5
Sassuolo
5.4
Lazio
5.3
Inter
5.3
Cagliari
5.3
AC Milan
5.2
Lecce
5.2
Juventus
5.1
Parma
4.9
Atalanta
4.9
Napoli
4.8
Udinese
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torino
31.8
Brescia
31.1
Bologna
30.5
Hellas Verona
29.9
Genoa
29.4
Spal
29.3
Fiorentina
28.8
Sassuolo
28.5
AC Milan
27.4
Atalanta
27.4
Cagliari
27.3
Lecce
27.2
Sampdoria
27.0
Inter
26.7
Parma
26.6
Udinese
26.0
Juventus
25.9
AS Roma
25.5
Napoli
24.8
Lazio
23.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.9%
Under 9.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
77.4%
Under 3.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
88.1%
Under 21.5
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cagliari
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.71
0.50
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.55
0.33
0.67
0.40
0.40
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.43
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.50
0.75
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.86
0.43
0.86
0.29
0.86
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.69
0.50
0.75
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Cagliari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cagliari over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cagliari over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cagliari over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cagliari
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.93
1.36
1.29
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.09
0.50
1.33
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (16)
1.31
0.94
2.14
1.43
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.43
0.94
1.31
0.79
1.57
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.86
0.71
1.86
1.00
1.86
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.15
1.12
0.88
0.40
1.60
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Cagliari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cagliari over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cagliari over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cagliari over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
72.7%
1.54
-
-
-
-
-
+11.1%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cagliari · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alessandro Deiola33%
Harry Winks0%
Michel Adopo0%
Elia Caprile0%
Zé Pedro0%
Daniel Maldini0%
Adam Obert0%
Jacopo Fazzini0%
Alessandro Romano0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
Paul Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alessandro Deiola33%
Zé Pedro33%
Daniel Maldini33%
Jacopo Fazzini33%
Harry Winks0%
Michel Adopo0%
Elia Caprile0%
Adam Obert0%
Alessandro Romano0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
Paul Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Harry Winks0%
Michel Adopo0%
Alessandro Deiola0%
Elia Caprile0%
Zé Pedro0%
Daniel Maldini0%
Adam Obert0%
Jacopo Fazzini0%
Alessandro Romano0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
Paul Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harry Winks0%
Michel Adopo0%
Alessandro Deiola0%
Elia Caprile0%
Zé Pedro0%
Daniel Maldini0%
Adam Obert0%
Jacopo Fazzini0%
Alessandro Romano0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
Paul Mendy0%
Lecce · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Olaf Gorter33%
Tiago Gabriel33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Lassana Coulibaly0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lassana Coulibaly33%
Danilo Veiga33%
Kialonda Gaspar33%
Oumar Ngom33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lassana Coulibaly33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Willem Geubbels33%
Nikola Štulić33%
Lassana Coulibaly0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
LEC (31)
€72m
HV (34)
€57m
SAM (27)
€37m
Cagliari's squad is €62m more valuable than Lecce's (€134m vs €72m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
PAR (8)
€35m
LEC (9)
€20m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
Cagliari's attack is €32m more valuable than Lecce's (€51m vs €20m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
CAG (9)
€31m
LEC (8)
€16m
HV (9)
€14m
SAM (6)
€7m
Cagliari's midfield is €16m more valuable than Lecce's (€31m vs €16m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
HV (15)
€30m
SAM (14)
€17m
Cagliari's defence is €15m more valuable than Lecce's (€52m vs €37m).
Italy: Serie A 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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Juventus
Inter
Atalanta
Lazio
AS Roma
AC Milan
Napoli
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
Parma
Hellas Verona
Bologna
Udinese
Sampdoria
Torino
Genoa
Brescia
Spal