Cagliari’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding just 1.5 goals per match against teams of similar strength, while Lecce’s away form shows a slightly tighter 1.0 goal conceded average. The model projects a tight 2.2-goal encounter, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 14.5% chance. The favourite result is a Cagliari win, with home win probability 42%, draw 31%, and away win 27%. Cagliari averages 1.62 goals scored at home, Lecce averages 1.12 away. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.1% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8% with a 5% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7% with a 1% edge), Under 5.5 (97.4% with a 2% edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (96.9% with a 3% edge). Both sides are on winning streaks, each having secured three consecutive victories before this match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cagliari win
41.1%
Avg Implied 47.3% · @ 2.00
Edge
-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.08
Dafabet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Betano
2.02
Draw
30.9%
Avg Implied 29.9% · @ 3.16
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.32
Pinnacle
3.27
Marathonbet
3.25
Dafabet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Lecce win
28.0%
Avg Implied 22.8% · @ 4.15
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Dafabet
4.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cagliari
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.33
1.20
1.13
0.93
1.53
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.25
0.71
0.71
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.28
1.39
1.62
1.50
1.00
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.33
0.67
1.40
0.80
1.27
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.80
0.12
2.00
0.43
1.57
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.87
1.29
0.71
1.12
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Cagliari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.5%
@ 1.46+2.6%
Under 1.5
32.5%
@ 2.70-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Under
Pinnacle
2.80
Betano
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.74
1xBet
2.74
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.5%
@ 2.39+0.0%
Under 2.5
60.5%
@ 1.56-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.46
1xBet
2.46
Unibet
2.45
Betano
2.42
Betfair
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.64
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.4%
@ 4.49-1.5%
Under 3.5
80.6%
@ 1.18+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.90
BetVictor
4.80
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Both teams to score
Yes
46.7%
@ 2.06+1.5%
No
53.3%
@ 1.70-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Bet365
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Betano
2.05
No
Betfair
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Bet365
1.70
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 5.94+6.8%
1-0
11.8%@ 5.54+3.6%
0-0
11.7%@ 7.06+5.2%
0-1
9.1%@ 8.83+3.9%
2-1
8.3%@ 8.36+2.9%
2-0
8.3%@ 8.08+2.7%
1-2
6.6%@ 13.34+3.2%
0-2
5.2%@ 19.29+2.8%
Cagliari goals ↓
Lecce goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.1%
5.2%
1.7%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.6%
2.2%
0.5%
2
8.3%
8.3%
4.2%
1.4%
0.3%
3
3.5%
3.5%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cagliari goals (down), columns = Lecce goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Cagliari is 0.13 points better than Lecce in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Genoa
1.08
Lazio
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Cagliari is 0.32 goals better than Lecce in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 0.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Cagliari is 0.08 goals worse than Lecce in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Cagliari is 4.0 percentage points better than Lecce in terms of average possession (46% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cagliari
For 5.0 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 11.5 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lecce
For 3.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 12.3 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cagliari
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.7
8.3
3.7
3.5
3.9
26.8
27.5
26.2
vs Stronger (18)
10.7
10.9
10.5
3.1
2.9
3.2
24.4
24.0
24.8
vs Similar (32)
8.0
9.1
6.9
4.1
3.8
4.3
28.2
29.2
27.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
42%
38%
52%
50%
54%
80%
75%
85%
% under line
60%
58%
62%
48%
50%
46%
20%
25%
15%
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecce
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
8.7
10.8
3.6
3.9
3.4
25.4
25.8
25.0
vs Stronger (25)
9.9
8.1
11.9
3.1
3.5
2.7
22.7
23.2
22.2
vs Similar (25)
9.6
9.4
9.8
4.2
4.4
4.0
28.1
28.8
27.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
40%
72%
48%
48%
48%
66%
68%
64%
% under line
44%
60%
28%
52%
52%
52%
34%
32%
36%
This opponent (Cagliari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.8
Juventus
9.7
Inter
9.3
Bologna
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Cagliari
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Genoa
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.4
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.0
Genoa
27.1
Monza
27.0
Cagliari
26.8
Como
26.1
Lecce
25.4
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
23.9
Juventus
23.5
Napoli
23.3
Atalanta
22.0
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.8%
@ 1.96+1.2%
Under 9.5
51.2%
@ 1.78-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.03
Betano
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Under
Unibet
1.86
1xBet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
48.3%
@ 1.85-2.0%
Under 3.5
51.7%
@ 1.87+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
74.5%
Under 21.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cagliari or Draw
67.9%
Avg Implied 77.1% · @ 1.22
Edge
-9.2%
41%
31%
28%
covers Cagliari + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Cagliari or Lecce
67.8%
Avg Implied 70.7% · @ 1.33
Edge
-2.9%
41%
31%
28%
covers Cagliari + Lecce
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Draw or Lecce
64.3%
Avg Implied 52.1% · @ 1.81
Edge
+12.1%
41%
31%
28%
covers Draw + Lecce
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.89
Unibet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cagliari over/under 0.5
Over
67.1%
@ 1.26-6.8%
Under
32.9%
@ 3.55+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.72
BetVictor
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Cagliari over/under 1.5
Over
30.5%
@ 2.30-10.1%
Under
69.5%
@ 1.58+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
1xBet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.33
10Bet
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Cagliari over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
@ 5.19-7.7%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.13+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.40
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
Under
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Cagliari over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
@ 11.81-5.4%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.03+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
1xBet
11.50
Marathonbet
11.50
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Lecce over/under 0.5
Over
64.6%
@ 1.61+6.8%
Under
35.4%
@ 2.21-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.33
Betano
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Lecce over/under 1.5
Over
27.9%
@ 4.06+4.8%
Under
72.1%
@ 1.21-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.29
Unibet
4.20
1xBet
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
Under
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Lecce over/under 2.5
Over
8.8%
@ 11.29+0.4%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.02-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
11.20
Unibet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
Lecce over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
@ 27.50-1.4%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cagliari, so a minus line means Cagliari give that many goals of a start and Lecce receive them. At -1, Cagliari must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cagliari win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cagliari)
Cagliari -2
4.7%
@ 8.64-5.7%
Draw -2
10.4%
@ 5.59-5.6%
Lecce +2
84.9%
@ 1.22+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.25
Away
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Cagliari)
Cagliari -1
15.1%
@ 3.77-8.8%
Draw -1
20.7%
@ 3.42-5.7%
Lecce +1
64.3%
@ 1.81+14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.68
Unibet
3.55
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.30
Away
Unibet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Handicap +1 (Cagliari)
Cagliari +1
67.9%
@ 1.21-6.7%
Draw +1
19.2%
@ 5.44+2.6%
Lecce -1
12.8%
@ 10.26+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.30
10Bet
5.00
Away
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Marathonbet
8.80
Handicap +2 (Cagliari)
Cagliari +2
87.2%
@ 1.04-2.3%
Draw +2
9.1%
@ 12.50+1.6%
Lecce -2
3.8%
@ 30.33+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
29.00
10Bet
21.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cagliari
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.53
0.60
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.75
0.29
0.57
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.56
0.75
0.62
0.30
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.47
0.60
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (15)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.43
0.57
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.27
1.00
0.14
0.25
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Cagliari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.1%
@ 1.53+4.9%
Under 0.5
33.9%
@ 2.42-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
SBO
1.58
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.43
Unibet
2.43
1xBet
2.43
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.8%
@ 3.46+1.8%
Under 1.5
71.2%
@ 1.28-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Betano
3.55
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Under
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.6%
@ 9.17-0.6%
Under 2.5
90.4%
@ 1.04+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
William Hil
10.00
BetVictor
10.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.90
Under
Betano
1.06
William Hil
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.04
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cagliari over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.0%
@ 2.03+2.1%
Under
52.0%
@ 1.72-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.03
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
1.97
Under
1xBet
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Cagliari over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.6%
@ 6.27-2.1%
Under
87.4%
@ 1.09+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Betano
5.90
Unibet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Cagliari over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
@ 11.75-5.5%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Lecce over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.2%
@ 2.90+4.0%
Under
63.8%
@ 1.37-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.15
Unibet
2.90
1xBet
2.88
Betano
2.87
Marathonbet
2.80
Under
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Lecce over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.4%
@ 10.17-1.8%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.03+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Lecce over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cagliari
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.50
0.43
0.14
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.83
0.88
0.88
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.80
0.20
0.80
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
0.07
1.00
0.12
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.60
0.29
0.57
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Cagliari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.9%
@ 1.33+6.4%
Under 0.5
23.1%
@ 3.17-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Marathonbet
3.25
1xBet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.5%
@ 2.51+3.3%
Under 1.5
59.5%
@ 1.49-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.62
Unibet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Under
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.4%
@ 5.86+1.5%
Under 2.5
82.6%
@ 1.10-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.00
William Hil
6.00
1xBet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
1xBet
1.10
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cagliari over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.2%
@ 1.72+4.2%
Under
41.8%
@ 2.02-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.74
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.98
Cagliari over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.2%
@ 4.46-0.6%
Under
79.8%
@ 1.17+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Cagliari over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.6%
@ 9.50-5.2%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.04+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Lecce over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.6%
@ 2.30+5.1%
Under
54.4%
@ 1.56-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.32
Betano
2.25
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Lecce over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.9%
@ 7.70-1.2%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.05+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.10
Marathonbet
8.10
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Lecce over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.8%
@ 13.00-5.4%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.4%
Under 5.5
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.1%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+5.4%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
Under 4.5
93.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Unibet
1.03
BetVictor
1.03
+3.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+1.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
91.2%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
-0.4%
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
William Hil
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.04
+0.6%
Home under 2.5 goals
89.8%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
+7.7%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.1%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+1.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.4%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+2.1%
Home +2 handicap
87.2%
1.04
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-2.3%
Over 19.5 fouls
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Betfair
1.17
+11.3%
Under 5.5 cards
84.5%
1.24
Betano
1.24
-
-
-
-
+9.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
1xBet
1.10
-1.5%
Under 3.5
80.6%
1.18
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.17
Unibet
1.17
+1.5%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.8%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-
+0.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.9%
1.33
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+6.4%
Over 21.5 fouls
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
74.4%
1.26
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
-
+1.9%
Away under 1.5 goals
72.1%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
-4.8%
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.2%
1.28
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
-1.8%
Under 4.5 cards
70.8%
1.42
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.37
-
-
-
+4.8%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cagliari
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alessandro Deiola25%
P. Mendy25%
H. Winks0%
Michel Adopo0%
Elia Caprile0%
Zé Pedro0%
D. Maldini0%
A. Obert0%
J. Fazzini0%
R. Kofler0%
A. Romano0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Zé Pedro33%
Michel Adopo25%
Alessandro Deiola25%
D. Maldini25%
J. Fazzini25%
H. Winks0%
Elia Caprile0%
A. Obert0%
R. Kofler0%
A. Romano0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
P. Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
H. Winks0%
Michel Adopo0%
Alessandro Deiola0%
Elia Caprile0%
Zé Pedro0%
D. Maldini0%
A. Obert0%
J. Fazzini0%
R. Kofler0%
A. Romano0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
P. Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Fazzini25%
Juan Rodríguez25%
H. Winks0%
Michel Adopo0%
Alessandro Deiola0%
Elia Caprile0%
Zé Pedro0%
D. Maldini0%
A. Obert0%
R. Kofler0%
A. Romano0%
P. Mendy0%
Lecce
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Olaf Gorter33%
Tiago Gabriel33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Lassana Coulibaly0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lassana Coulibaly33%
Danilo Veiga33%
Kialonda Gaspar33%
Oumar Ngom33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lassana Coulibaly33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Willem Geubbels33%
Nikola Štulić33%
Lassana Coulibaly0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Cagliari's squad is €62m more valuable than Lecce's (€134m vs €72m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Cagliari's attack is €32m more valuable than Lecce's (€51m vs €20m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Cagliari's midfield is €16m more valuable than Lecce's (€31m vs €16m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Cagliari's defence is €15m more valuable than Lecce's (€52m vs €37m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina