Cardiff return to their home ground after a defeat to Norwich, yet their recent form shows they can still score, averaging 1.33 goals per game while conceding only 0.89 against similar opposition. Sheffield United, unbeaten in their last five, have been slightly less efficient at home, scoring 1.21 and conceding 1.07 on the road. The model’s most likely outcome is an away win, with a 41% probability, and a 30% chance of a home win and a 30% chance of a draw. The expected goal total is 2.4, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% chance. The model picks an away victory as the favourite. In addition to the result, the model offers several selections: Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.8% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.8% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.5% with an 8% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.5% with a 6% edge) and Under 5.5 (96.3% with a 6% edge).
Results analysis
The draw stunned the pre-match favourite, Sheffield United, who were tipped to win with a 40% chance. The match finished 2-2, a result that left the model’s call wrong. Cardiff were coming off a draw, while Sheffield United were unbeaten in their last five, yet neither side could secure victory. The model’s selection of Under 7.5 goals hit, as did Under 6.5, Home under 2.5 HT goals, Away under 2.5 HT goals, Home under 2.5 2H goals, Home under 3.5 goals, Away under 2.5 2H goals and Under 5.5. Each hit was recorded with its probability: 99.6%, 98.8%, 98.6%, 98.1%, 97.6%, 97.4%, 96.7% and 96.3% respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cardiff win✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied 34.6% · @ 2.71
Edge
-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.84
Bet365
2.80
Superbet
2.80
Dafabet
2.80
Betfair
2.80
Draw✓ Hit
29.8%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.51
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.68
Dafabet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Sheffield United win✗ Miss
40.5%
Avg Implied 38.7% · @ 2.42
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.56
Unibet
2.55
Dafabet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.44
Superbet
2.42
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cardiff
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.17
1.81
0.88
2.21
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.58
1.42
1.33
0.89
1.80
1.90
vs Weaker (10)
2.90
0.70
2.67
0.83
3.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheffield United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.33
1.93
1.67
1.33
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.52
1.30
1.85
1.54
1.21
1.07
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.67
2.50
2.50
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.1%
@ 1.21-6.3%
Under 1.5
28.9%
@ 4.14+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.56
Superbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.8%
@ 1.70-11.9%
Under 2.5
56.2%
@ 2.13+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.22
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.15
SBO
2.14
1xBet
2.14
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.7%
@ 2.70-12.0%
Under 3.5
77.3%
@ 1.44+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
Under
Pinnacle
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.3%
@ 1.56-9.3%
No
49.7%
@ 2.30+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.60
Superbet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
No
1xBet
2.34
Superbet
2.32
Unibet
2.32
Betano
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 6.46+7.2%
0-1
10.4%@ 9.56+5.7%
0-0
10.1%@ 11.95+6.3%
1-2
8.5%@ 8.88+3.5%
1-0
8.4%@ 9.89+3.9%
0-2
7.8%@ 12.70+4.2%
2-1
7.1%@ 9.30+2.2%
2-0
5.4%@ 13.82+2.1%
Cardiff goals ↓
Sheffield United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
10%
7.8%
3.4%
1.1%
1
8.4%
14%
8.5%
3.8%
1.3%
2
5.4%
7.1%
4.7%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.0%
2.6%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cardiff goals (down), columns = Sheffield United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Cardiff is 0.01 points worse than Sheffield United in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Cardiff is 0.21 goals worse than Sheffield United in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Cardiff is 0.07 goals better than Sheffield United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cardiff
For 6.8 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 10.3 · Total 20.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sheffield United
For 5.3 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 11.9 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cardiff
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.8
10.8
3.4
3.3
3.5
20.7
20.5
20.9
vs Stronger (3)
13.7
14.0
13.0
2.7
2.5
3.0
19.0
18.0
21.0
vs Similar (32)
11.2
11.4
11.1
3.6
3.5
3.6
20.7
20.1
21.2
vs Weaker (15)
9.3
9.0
9.8
3.3
3.3
3.2
21.1
21.8
20.2
% over line
65%
65%
65%
48%
50%
46%
37%
38%
35%
% under line
35%
35%
35%
52%
50%
54%
63%
62%
65%
This opponent (Sheffield United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheffield United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.7
11.2
3.9
4.2
3.7
21.6
22.0
21.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
11.5
11.6
11.4
3.9
4.0
3.8
21.4
22.0
21.0
vs Weaker (4)
10.8
12.0
9.5
4.2
5.5
3.0
23.5
22.5
24.5
% over line
68%
67%
69%
54%
54%
54%
46%
50%
42%
% under line
32%
33%
31%
46%
46%
46%
54%
50%
58%
This opponent (Cardiff) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
10.9
Cardiff
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.7
Millwall
10.7
Blackburn
10.6
Preston
10.6
Stoke
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Watford
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.5
Wolves
9.4
West Brom
9.2
Lincoln
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Lincoln
4.2
Sheffield United
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Southampton
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Swansea
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Preston
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.5
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.2
Lincoln
23.1
Derby
22.8
Swansea
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
Bolton
22.2
West Ham
22.2
Birmingham
21.9
Sheffield United
21.6
Middlesbrough
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Norwich
21.3
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
Blackburn
21.0
West Brom
20.9
Stoke
20.8
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.7
Millwall
20.7
Burnley
20.0
Preston
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
64.0%
@ 1.37-2.9%
Under 9.5
36.0%
@ 2.78+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Under
Betfair
3.00
Betano
2.82
Marathonbet
2.78
1xBet
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.2%
@ 1.54-8.8%
Under 3.5
48.8%
@ 2.31+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.55
Unibet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Under
Betano
2.42
Pinnacle
2.35
Unibet
2.28
Superbet
2.20
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
43.4%
Under 21.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cardiff or Draw✓ Hit
59.5%
Avg Implied 61.7% · @ 1.52
Edge
-2.2%
30%
30%
40%
covers Cardiff + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.56
BetVictor
1.53
Betfair
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Cardiff or Sheffield United✗ Miss
70.2%
Avg Implied 73.4% · @ 1.27
Edge
-3.2%
30%
30%
40%
covers Cardiff + Sheffield United
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Draw or Sheffield United✓ Hit
70.3%
Avg Implied 65.0% · @ 1.44
Edge
+5.4%
30%
30%
40%
covers Draw + Sheffield United
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
William Hil
1.44
Superbet
1.44
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cardiff over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.8%
@ 1.24-7.9%
Under
33.2%
@ 3.67+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.91
Unibet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Superbet
3.70
Cardiff over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
30.2%
@ 2.22-12.0%
Under
69.8%
@ 1.61+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.34
Marathonbet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Under
Pinnacle
1.64
Unibet
1.64
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Cardiff over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 4.91-9.0%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.15+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Superbet
4.85
Under
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Cardiff over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 11.29-5.8%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.04+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
10.70
Betano
9.50
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Sheffield United over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.5%
@ 1.22-2.8%
Under
26.5%
@ 3.92+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.34
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Sheffield United over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
38.3%
@ 2.09-6.5%
Under
61.7%
@ 1.69+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.13
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.72
Sheffield United over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.9%
@ 4.47-5.9%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.17+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Pinnacle
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Sheffield United over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 9.80-4.9%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
9.80
1xBet
9.10
Marathonbet
9.10
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cardiff, so a minus line means Cardiff give that many goals of a start and Sheffield United receive them. At -1, Cardiff must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cardiff win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cardiff)Actual: Sheffield United
Cardiff -2
3.7%
@ 10.70-4.6%
Draw -2
8.5%
@ 6.96-4.3%
Sheffield United +2
87.8%
@ 1.12+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
10.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Cardiff)Actual: Sheffield United
Cardiff -1
12.2%
@ 5.11-5.3%
Draw -1
17.5%
@ 4.39-2.9%
Sheffield United +1
70.3%
@ 1.44+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.05
Unibet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Away
Unibet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Handicap +1 (Cardiff)Actual: Cardiff
Cardiff +1
59.5%
@ 1.51+0.6%
Draw +1
21.3%
@ 4.18-0.0%
Sheffield United -1
19.2%
@ 4.53-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
10Bet
1.48
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.10
Away
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.30
Handicap +2 (Cardiff)Actual: Cardiff
Cardiff +2
80.8%
@ 1.16+3.1%
Draw +2
12.3%
@ 6.83-0.8%
Sheffield United -2
6.9%
@ 9.78-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Away
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Betfair
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
8.70
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cardiff
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
0.81
0.38
1.00
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.74
0.78
0.33
1.00
1.10
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.30
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheffield United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.67
0.80
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.63
0.54
0.77
0.64
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.8%
@ 1.32-4.0%
Under 0.5
33.2%
@ 3.20+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Under
BetVictor
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
28.6%
@ 2.48-9.0%
Under 1.5
71.4%
@ 1.49+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
Superbet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.50
William Hil
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
9.7%
@ 5.91-6.0%
Under 2.5
90.3%
@ 1.10+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
6.00
Betano
5.80
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cardiff over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.5%
@ 1.98-7.4%
Under
60.5%
@ 1.76+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Under
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Unibet
1.78
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.72
Cardiff over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
8.2%
@ 5.89-7.5%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.10+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
6.10
Betano
5.90
Superbet
5.85
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Cardiff over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 15.50-4.8%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.02+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Sheffield United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.3%
@ 1.91-4.4%
Under
55.7%
@ 1.81+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.95
Unibet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Superbet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Sheffield United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
11.2%
@ 5.55-5.4%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.11+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.55
Superbet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Sheffield United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 14.12-4.8%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cardiff
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.57
1.00
0.50
1.21
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.68
0.56
0.56
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (10)
1.90
0.40
1.67
0.50
2.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheffield United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
1.27
0.87
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.67
1.31
0.77
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
73.5%
@ 1.18-5.3%
Under 0.5
26.5%
@ 4.38+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Betano
4.40
1xBet
4.35
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.7%
@ 1.88-11.0%
Under 1.5
61.3%
@ 1.85+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
William Hil
1.91
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Under
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Unibet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.4%
@ 3.69-10.7%
Under 2.5
85.6%
@ 1.24+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.85
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cardiff over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.3%
@ 1.69-7.4%
Under
52.7%
@ 2.04+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Under
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
1.99
Cardiff over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 4.29-9.9%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.18+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Betano
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Cardiff over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 11.25-6.0%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.03+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Sheffield United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.5%
@ 1.64-5.9%
Under
49.5%
@ 2.12+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.64
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Under
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.01
Sheffield United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.4%
@ 4.00-5.7%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.20+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
3.94
1xBet
3.94
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Sheffield United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 10.38-5.8%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.03+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.03
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
1.10
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
+7.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+6.0%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
90.1%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+9.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
+9.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.3%
1.18
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.8%
1.12
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+8.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
+10.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.1%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.6%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.6%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.27
-
-
+14.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
80.8%
1.16
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.3%
1.44
Pinnacle
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+12.0%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
75.2%
1.20
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.5%
1.22
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.5%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
-5.3%
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.4%
1.49
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.50
William Hil
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
+9.0%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.1%
1.21
Betano
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
-6.3%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
70.3%
1.44
Unibet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
William Hil
1.44
Superbet
1.44
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
70.3%
1.44
Unibet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.2%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
-3.2%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cardiff
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yousef Salech50%
Jack Moylan33%
Cian Ashford33%
Rubin Colwill20%
Perry Ng17%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Ollie Tanner0%
Joel Bagan0%
Isaak Davies0%
Alex Robertson0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Joel Colwill0%
Ronan Kpakio0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Perry Ng33%
Alex Robertson33%
Ollie Tanner20%
Rubin Colwill20%
Jack Moylan17%
Isaak Davies17%
Joel Colwill17%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Joel Bagan0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Yousef Salech0%
Cian Ashford0%
Ronan Kpakio0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cian Ashford33%
Ronan Kpakio25%
Ollie Tanner20%
Rubin Colwill20%
Yousef Salech17%
Perry Ng0%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Jack Moylan0%
Joel Bagan0%
Isaak Davies0%
Alex Robertson0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Joel Colwill0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yousef Salech67%
Jack Moylan33%
Perry Ng17%
Cian Ashford17%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Ollie Tanner0%
Joel Bagan0%
Isaak Davies0%
Alex Robertson0%
Rubin Colwill0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Joel Colwill0%
Ronan Kpakio0%
Sheffield United
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Callum O'Hare40%
P. Bamford40%
Thomas Cannon40%
Romelle Donovan40%
J. Tanganga20%
M. McGuinness17%
Femi Seriki0%
R. Norrington-Davies0%
J. Riedewald0%
K. Phillips0%
J. Shackleton0%
J. Rothwell0%
Harrison Burrows0%
S. McCallum0%
Tyrese Campbell0%
Michael Cooper0%
Sydie Peck0%
Oliver Arblaster0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Harrison Burrows33%
Femi Seriki25%
J. Tanganga20%
Sydie Peck20%
M. McGuinness17%
Callum O'Hare0%
R. Norrington-Davies0%
J. Riedewald0%
K. Phillips0%
J. Shackleton0%
P. Bamford0%
J. Rothwell0%
S. McCallum0%
Tyrese Campbell0%
Michael Cooper0%
Thomas Cannon0%
Oliver Arblaster0%
Romelle Donovan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sydie Peck40%
K. Phillips33%
P. Bamford20%
J. Rothwell20%
S. McCallum20%
Femi Seriki0%
Callum O'Hare0%
R. Norrington-Davies0%
J. Riedewald0%
J. Shackleton0%
Harrison Burrows0%
Tyrese Campbell0%
Michael Cooper0%
J. Tanganga0%
M. McGuinness0%
Thomas Cannon0%
Oliver Arblaster0%
Romelle Donovan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
P. Bamford40%
Romelle Donovan40%
J. Rothwell20%
Thomas Cannon20%
Femi Seriki0%
Callum O'Hare0%
R. Norrington-Davies0%
J. Riedewald0%
K. Phillips0%
J. Shackleton0%
Harrison Burrows0%
S. McCallum0%
Tyrese Campbell0%
Michael Cooper0%
J. Tanganga0%
M. McGuinness0%
Sydie Peck0%
Oliver Arblaster0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Cardiff's squad is €81m less valuable than Sheffield United's (€29m vs €110m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Cardiff's attack is €13m less valuable than Sheffield United's (€15m vs €29m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Cardiff's midfield is €28m less valuable than Sheffield United's (€4m vs €32m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Cardiff's defence is €39m less valuable than Sheffield United's (€10m vs €49m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston